The post Major Swing Coming on Playoff Percentages Based on Red Wings vs Senators Outcome appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
Red Wings
As the Detroit Red Wings battle for a playoff spot down the stretch of the NHL regular season, the cliches are abundant. For instance, traditionalists would describe Tuesday’s home date against the Ottawa Senators as a four-point game.
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Detroit has 84 points and is ninth in the Eastern Conference. Ottawa sits 10th in the East with 83 points. By around 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, the Red Wings could be as much as three points ahead of the Senators in the standings. Or they could find themselves one point behind Ottawa.
Modern-day hockey fans, who delve deeply into analytics, take a different tack when assessing how the outcome will affect the postseason chase. They’d much rather discuss the implications of the outcome of this game on the respective playoff chances of both clubs.
This game, in particular, is absolutely a swing game in terms of the playoff hopes of both clubs.
Red Wings Could Make Quantum Leap In Playoff Chances
According to data compiled by Moneypuck.com, a Detroit win in regulation would send the playoff percentage of the Red Wings skyrocketing. It would climb to a 68.6% chance that Detroit is a playoff team. That’s a 12.6% increase. Win in overtime, and the Wings will be sitting with playoff chances of 63.5%. That would be a 7.5% uptick.
Now for the bad news. Lose in regulation and Detroit’s postseason hopes plummet to 40.7%, a 15.3% dropoff. An OT setback isn’t as devastating, but it’s not good. That type of loss sends the playoff chances of the Red Wings down to 51.4%, a 4.6% decrease.
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The Senators would benefit massively from a regulation victory over the Red Wings. Ottawa’s postseason percentage jumps to 73.9%, a 12.7% growth rate. Win in overtime, and the playoff chances of the Sens grow to 71.3%, a 10.1% jump.
A regulation loss to Detroit drops Ottawa’s playoff hopes to 47.7%, a signifcant 13.5% downturn. Lose in OT or a shootout, and the playoff chances of the Senators decline to 58.7%, a mild 2.5% downturn.
The post Major Swing Coming on Playoff Percentages Based on Red Wings vs Senators Outcome appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.
