Cancel those dinner plans. Tonight, we dine on top-tier basketball.
The final night of the Sweet 16 is dedicated to some of the best programs in men’s college basketball.
Duke. UConn. Michigan. Michigan State. Alabama. St. John’s. Iowa State. Tennessee. Only one team on Friday night’s NCAA Tournament marquee has a seed higher than five, and that’s the sixth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers.
The final four spots in the Elite Eight are up for grabs, with as many as 23 players from The Athletic’s top 100 prospects board potentially suiting up.
Cinderella may be dead, but blue blood basketball is alive and well. And it should be delicious.
Here’s a look at what’s ahead:
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s
7:10 p.m. ET, CBS
St. John’s is peaking at the perfect time. Since the start of January, the Red Storm have lost just once, and now they have found their rhythm from deep. Before the NCAA Tournament, the Johnnies hadn’t made double-digit 3-pointers in a game since Jan. 10.
Now, that’s changed in a big way, with Rick Pitino’s squad knocking down 10 against Northern Iowa and 11 against Kansas.
Duke presents a different challenge. The Blue Devils (No. 1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings) defend at a higher level than Kansas and are more than comfortable playing physical. Patrick Ngongba II made his return against TCU, but logged just 13 minutes. If he’s healthy, the sophomore guard will be crucial in slowing down St. John’s frontcourt duo of Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins.
The numbers tell the story for St. John’s: The Red Storm are 15-0 when shooting 50 percent or better and 22-1 when hitting at least 45 percent. But that drops off when they’re around 39 percent (5-4) — which happens to be what Duke typically holds opponents to.
Expect St. John’s to test freshman forward Cameron Boozer physically, but his ability to score at all three levels could be the difference. Foul trouble looms as a potential issue for Duke, especially with limited bench production — just 13 total points so far in the NCAA Tournament.
Cayden Boozer has stepped up in the absence of injured guard Caleb Foster, but Duke will need more. The question is whether Isaiah Evans, Dame Sarr and Maliq Brown can continue doing the little things that have helped hold everything together. — Tobias Bass, staff editor
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Alabama, top-five in KenPom’s offensive rating, runs the highest-scoring offense (91.6 ppg) in the country, but ranks 60th in defensive rating and allows the most points per game (82.5) in the SEC.
That is a critical imbalance from which top-seeded Michigan does not suffer.
Dusty May’s Wolverines rank sixth in KenPom’s offensive rating and second in defensive rating. They are one of only four teams to rank in the top 10 in both, which allows the Wolverines to dismantle teams offensively and suffocate them defensively to the tune of a 17.9-point average scoring margin this season — good for third in the country.
The Wolverines have Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg, an all-around force who averages 14.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. They have three players averaging at least 6.9 rebounds per game and four averaging double figures in scoring. Their starting five measures 7-foot-3 (Aday Mara), 6-9 (Lendeborg), 6-9 (Morez Johnson Jr.), 6-5 (Nimari Burnett) and 6-1 (Elliot Cadeau). On paper, they’re a juggernaut.
But Alabama can run with the best of them. The Crimson Tide have five players averaging double figures in scoring, and sophomore first-team All-SEC guard Labaron Philon Jr. is one of three SEC players averaging more than 20 a game (21.6). He’s also a deft playmaker, dishing five assists per game, and a sure-fire first-round draft pick.
The Tide’s so-so defense could be a problem against Michigan’s methodical and consistent offensive attack. In the end, the determining factor may be whether Alabama can blitz through Michigan’s defense. — Devon Henderson, staff reporter
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State
9:45 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bracket of Death delivers a nightcap worth delaying bedtime.
A pair of blue bloods with 17 Final Fours and eight national titles between them — UConn has six (!) — meet for the right to face either the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils or Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm in the Elite Eight.
Sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. was a playmaking wizard for the Spartans last week, dishing 27 assists in tournament wins over North Dakota State (92-67) and Louisville (77-69). Junior forward Coen Carr and senior post Carson Cooper — the rare upperclassmen to actually stay at one school — took turns posting double-doubles. And the team was lights-out from 3-point range (21 of 46) in a relatively breezy weekend.
Now comes a date with a UConn team that has the size and experience to match up with anyone. Senior big man Tarris Reed Jr., who put up 41 points and 40 rebounds in wins over Furman and UCLA last week, is a 6-11 menace in the paint. Senior forward Alex Karaban — he of the 15-1 NCAA Tournament record — has a knack for meeting the moment. And 6-6 freshman guard Braylon Mullins (12.1 points per game) might be the best future pro of the bunch.
Both teams are ranked in the top 30 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. And both teams are led by head coaches with at least one championship banner hanging from the rafters — although Dan Hurley’s titles with UConn (2023 and 2024) are a bit more recent than Tom Izzo’s (2000) in East Lansing.
Needless to say, it doesn’t get much better than this. — Matt Schubert, staff editor
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee
10:10 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
This Sweet 16 matchup should be a back-and-forth showdown between two teams with similar play structures.
If Tennessee hopes to make its fourth Elite Eight appearance in program history — and third straight — it will need to slow down Iowa State’s offense, which shoots 49 percent from the field. Milan Momcilovic leads the way in scoring at 17.2 points per game, and equally importantly, knocks down more than three 3-pointers per game. But the Cyclones don’t rely on any one scorer, with six players averaging at least 6.8 points per game.
Even more important is the status of Joshua Jefferson, who injured his ankle in the team’s blowout win over Tennessee State. The Cyclones didn’t need him in that 108-74 win, nor did they miss him much in a 19-point beatdown of Kentucky. Momcilovic stepped up and scored 20 points against the Wildcats, but he wasn’t the leading scorer, as Tamin Lipsey had 26. With Jefferson potentially back in the mix, even if he’s not playing at full strength, the Cyclones could be a problem for the Volunteers.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s offense presents a challenge. Iowa State allows only 65.3 points a game, but the Volunteers far outpaced that number in their first two tournament games, scoring 78 and 79 points, respectively. Ja’Kobi Gillespie averages 18.4 points and 5.6 assists per game for the Volunteers, while freshman Nate Ament adds 16.9 points and 6.4 boards per game.
The Cyclones will need to continue their hot shooting, get Jefferson involved (if he plays), and limit the Volunteers’ second-chance opportunities.
Like Iowa State, Tennessee is only 6-4 in its last 10 contests. Yet, the Volunteers have found ways to win by riding the talents of Gillespie, a Maryland transfer who scored 50 points in the first two rounds, Ament and Bishop Boswell (6.4 ppg). And don’t count out the big-game coaching prowess of 71-year-old Rick Barnes.
Still, will all of that be enough against the red-hot Cyclones, who have proven to be versatile and tough on both ends of the floor? — Zach Powell, staff editor
