A memory has kept popping back into my head over recent days.
It was September 2024 and Sir Keir Starmer was standing surrounded by Scottish political journalists in No 10 Downing Street.
He had invited us in for, literally, beer and sandwiches.
I was still working for The Times newspaper and was unexpectedly called to ask the first question, which was probably a little more gung-ho for having consumed a bottle and a half of lager.
Pointing across the room towards Anas Sarwar and referencing the prime minister’s statement that “things will get worse” before they get better and the unpopular – and later U-turned on – decision to means-test winter fuel payments for pensioners, I asked: “Do you think your Eeyore government is harming Tigger over there?”
The Scottish Labour leader laughed heartily at the time but he has lost some of that bounce over the last 18 months.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar with Sir Keir Starmer. Credit: PA
And some of the ambition. And he recently tried to lose the prime minister.
Sarwar still burns with a desire to be first minister.
But he has realised that to make that dream a reality he has to be extremely effective – and fortunate – in shrinking his party into one that is focused on Greater Glasgow and Clyde, plus a sliver of urban centres in the east.
Pollster Mark Diffley points out that this is because Scotland’s central belt may be a small proportion of the country’s land, but it is home to the vast majority of the population.
He says that Labour can still say they are speaking to most of the country, but adds that if political parties are “smart they will concentrate their resources accordingly”.
And so Sarwar is far from alone in contracting a once national beast into a tightly focused campaign operation.
The Conservatives have largely retreated into defending their remaining strongholds in the south of Scotland.
Multiple party sources say gloomy internal data suggests that heavy losses are expected across the country, including the northeast, where they made big advances a decade ago.
“The south is the only part we may hold out under this polling,” said one source.
This largely chimes with public surveys but Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay has declared that just as his party defied pundits five years ago to retain all 31 of its MSPs, he believes he will do better than expected once again.
More optimistic are the Scottish Greens. Co-leader Gillian Mackay said they want an “MSP in every region” and are hopeful of returning a representative on the South Scotland list.
But the party is largely aiming its resources at urban areas and have identified two target constituencies: Edinburgh Central, currently held by constitution secretary Angus Robertson, and Nicola Sturgeon’s former seat of Glasgow Southside.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems are looking north and reckon they can win seats in the Highlands on top of their existing pockets in the central belt and the northern isles.
They also hope a well-funded campaign will deliver them an MSP on the South Scotland list.
The Lib Dems see their former stronghold of the Borders as a massive gap in their armour and believe if they gain representation there, they can think once again about becoming a “national party”.
The Scottish Parliament. Credit: ITV Border
Ironically, Reform UK’s potential to appear from nowhere and pick up seats in every part of the country – notwithstanding its controversial candidates – is currently helping the party that sees itself as Scotland’s truly national representatives: the SNP.
Diffley said Reform is on course to return between 15 and 20 MSPs, adding: “It’s shaken up the political world in Scotland as it has in other places in the UK significantly as well.
“And what it means is because they are taking votes almost exclusively from disgruntled Labour and Conservative voters, it makes the SNP’s task much easier.
“So it means you can lose 25 per cent of your voters – as the SNP has done since 2021 – but actually probably come out on 35 per cent of the vote with about the same number of seats in parliament as they got five years ago.”
This is why John Swinney reckons he can win a majority, which he says will lead to a second independence referendum, despite the fall in support over the last five years.
The first minister can look across almost all of Scotland’s 73 constituencies and see winnable battles.
This is important when the magic majority number is 65 MSPs.
But a wide and – relatively to previous elections – shallow support base has potential drawbacks, which were highlighted at the last general election.
The SNP won 30 per cent of the popular vote, compared to Labour’s 5 per cent, but only returned nine MPs when there were 36 victorious candidates wearing red rosettes.
Five years on, nationalists still remember Galloway and West Dumfries – the knife-edge seat that denied them going it alone at Holyrood.
A senior SNP source: “The south of Scotland could make or break our majority. It’s so finely balanced.”
The national picture is important, of course it is. But every serious political party has realised that the key to success, no matter how you measure it, is by focusing on and winning the local battles.
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