San Francisco International Airport is facing significant disruption right now, and the implications for United Airlines go beyond a few bad weeks of delays.
SFO is dealing with two overlapping issues: a runway closure for construction and a new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) restriction that cuts arrival capacity.
One of the airport’s four runways is closed through early October thanks to a construction project that just commenced. That alone would slow things down. But the bigger issue is a change in how aircraft are allowed to land. The FAA has reduced the number of arrivals per hour because of safety concerns tied to the airport’s closely-spaced parallel runways. Per the FAA:
“The FAA safety measure prohibits flights from making side-by-side approaches to SFO’s parallel east-west runways in clear weather when the pilots acknowledge having the other aircraft in sight. It requires staggered approaches, with one aircraft offset from the aircraft on the parallel runway. The FAA never allowed side-by-side approaches in bad weather.”
It is not clear what prompted this sudden change, but the FAA added that its announcement on the same day runway construction began was purely coincidental.
In the past, SFO could handle about 54 arrivals per hour in good weather. That number has now dropped to around 36, a 33% decrease. Even after construction is finished, projections suggest capacity will only recover to roughly 45 arrivals per hour.
That is a huge reduction at one of the most delay-prone airports in the country and I don’t think any of us can quite appreciate yet what this means for United Airlines. United, which relies on SFO as a major hub for both domestic and international flying, is watching closely.
In a statement to Live And Let’s Fly, United said:
“Planned runway construction at San Francisco International Airport may cause flight delays, and we encourage customers to check their flight status in the United app. Additionally, we are reviewing the FAA’s updated guidance to determine if we will need to make any changes to our flight schedule in the future.”
I specifically asked if United opposed the new FAA rule or would take steps to contest it and was told United had no further comment.
A Long-Term Problem For United At SFO?
The construction will end, but the FAA restriction is likely to remain.
SFO has always had operational constraints due to runway spacing, especially in poor weather. Airlines built schedules around the assumption that in good conditions, the airport could handle higher arrival rates, but it appears that assumption no longer holds.
If arrival rates stay lower, delays will become more common and schedule reductions will be necessary.
United has not announced any cuts yet, but the language in its statement makes that a likely option (United is not going to tolerate 25% of its flights being delayed 30+ minutes going forward). If the current limits remain in place, trimming peak-hour banks will be necessary.
SFO is United’s primary gateway to Asia and an important hub for Europe. This news could hinder growth plans, though at least it comes at a time of rising oil prices when schedule cutbacks may make sense even without new landing restrictions. Might United shift more traffic south to its Los Angeles (LAX) hub? That’s a possibility, especially because Patrick Quayle, the Senior Vice President of Global Network Planning and Alliances at United Airlines, recently put Delta “on notice here at LAX,” promising, “We will be #1 here as well.”
If you are traveling via SFO, expect longer delays in the days ahead, regardless of weather.
CONCLUSION
SFO has always been a difficult airport to run on time, but this surprise landing policy change from the FAA will make operations much harder. If the reduced arrival rates stick, United will have to scale back its operation at SFO…I’d expect fewer frequencies between hubs and a cutback in United Express operations. This is not good news for United.
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