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Xander Schauffele overcomes to grab first major at PGA Championship
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Written by Will Gray
When handicapping the Masters field each spring, the trends are your friends.
There might not be a more predictive tournament on the calendar than the one contested this week at Augusta National Golf Club, the only major championship played on the same course each and every year. Players that play well here tend to do so often. Those that struggle to successfully discern its nuance are often left scratching their heads for years on end.
From recent form to course history and performance in majors, there’s no shortage of correlated trends that can prove insightful while trying to winnow down the field of true contenders for the green jacket. So, let’s use them to decipher which of the 91 players teeing it up this week will leave a champion.
Of note, this column has had some success in recent years: in 2023 Ben Everill correctly predicted the winner, while in 2024 he was one major early on Xander Schauffele’s breakthrough. Last year, Rory McIlroy was the last man eliminated.
Without further ado, let’s use the trends below to find the next Masters winner:
Each of the last 46 winners had played in at least one prior Masters
This trend springs eternal each year: Outside of the inaugural event in 1934, the only Masters rookie to win in his debut is the late Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. A few have come close in recent years, including runners-up Sungjae Im (2020), Will Zalatoris (2022) and Ludvig Åberg (2024) – but this has remained a reliable separator for decades.
Eliminated: Michael Brennan, Jacob Bridgeman, Ethan Fang (a), Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, Harry Hall, Jackson Herrington (a), Brandon Holtz (a), Mason Howell (a), Casey Jarvis (a), Naoyuki Kataoka, Johnny Keefer, Fifa Laopakdee (a), Tom McKibbin, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Andrew Novak, Marco Penge, Mateo Pulcini (a), Kristoffer Reitan, Sam Stevens, Sami Valimaki
No one has won the Masters over age 50
There will be ample celebration this week to commemorate the 40th anniversary of Jack Nicklaus’ historic 1986 win at age 46, but that remains the high-water mark for experience triumphing at Augusta National. The half-dozen names below will enjoy a lovely meal on Rory McIlroy’s tab Tuesday night at the champions’ dinner, but that will likely be the high point of their week.
Eliminated: Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Jose Maria Olazabal, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir
Twenty-six of the last 28 winners had recorded a prior top-30 finish at the Masters
It’s no secret that Augusta National typically requires a learning curve. In order to have a realistic chance at the green jacket, players need to have at least one solid result under their belt in Masters conditions. The historical outliers here over the last three decades: only Zach Johnson in 2007 and Danny Willett in 2016.
Eliminated: Akshay Bhatia, Brian Campbell, Wyndham Clark, Nico Echavarria, Ryan Fox, Max Greyserman, Rasmus Højgaard, Kurt Kitayama, Jake Knapp, Haotong Li, Maverick McNealy, Alex Noren, Carlos Ortiz, Aldrich Potgieter
Since 1998, all but one champion made the Masters cut the year prior to their win
We’ve talked about historical form at Augusta National, but this one zeroes in on the most recent scar tissue (or lack thereof). With only one exception – Patrick Reed in 2018 – the Masters winner since ’98 has not had to overcome the pain of a missed cut the year prior. This knocks out a couple of heavy hitters on the pre-tournament odds board.
Eliminated: Keegan Bradley, Sergio Garcia, Russell Henley, Nicolai Højgaard, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Robert MacIntyre, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith, Cameron Young
Fourteen of the last 16 winners had a top-six finish in a major over the two years preceding their Masters victory
This is a high bar to clear, and it nearly cuts the remaining field in half. But recent winners have largely benefited from being in the heat of battle to the bitter end at a recent major championship.
Eliminated: Daniel Berger, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Jason Day, Brian Harman, Michael Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Matt McCarty, Jon Rahm, Aaron Rai, Charl Schwartzel, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka, Nick Taylor, Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson, Danny Willett, Gary Woodland
Each of the last 14 Masters champions picked up at least 18 shots via Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in their four most recent starts
Flushers only at Augusta National. This is not a place where players have historically been able to “find it” if they weren’t entering with some serious ball-striking momentum. Some of the players cut here have great tee-to-green bona fides, but they haven’t been up to their usual standards in the last few weeks.
Eliminated: Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Davis Riley, Justin Rose, J.J. Spaun
Sixteen of the last 17 winners ranked inside the top in 50 Driving Distance the year preceding their victory
Augusta National has historically favored the bombers, and this week should be no exception. Distance off the tee plays a huge factor, both for positioning on the par-4s and being able to take advantage of the par-5 scoring opportunities.
Eliminated: Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed
Thirteen of the last 14 winners had three-plus career PGA TOUR wins to their credit
Now we’re splitting hairs to discern among the final five contenders. Outside of Danny Willett’s surprise victory a decade ago, every winner since 2012 has had at least three TOUR titles in his collection before a Masters breakthrough. That leaves a certain Swede one trophy short.
Eliminated: Ludvig Åberg
The last seven Masters champions each boasted an under-par scoring average at Augusta National
Recent history has favored those who have already demonstrated an ability to tame Augusta National with regularity. Bryson DeChambeau has two majors to his credit and came close last year, but his all-time scoring average sits at 72.54 across 32 career rounds.
Contenders: Four to three
Eliminated: Bryson DeChambeau
Only once since 2006 has the pre-tournament betting favorite won the Masters
This trend has been bucked just once in the last two decades – by (checks notes) Scottie Scheffler, when he won his second green jacket as a clear betting favorite in 2024. But history is still largely against Scheffler pulling it off again, as he’s the only person to do so since Tiger Woods in 2005.
Eliminated: Scottie Scheffler
The defending champion has not won the Masters since 2002
Rest easy McIlroy fans, as this is where the Ulsterman got cut last year but he rose to the challenge. Still, there’s no denying that going back-to-back at the Masters has happened just three times in the tournament’s entire history: Jack Nicklaus in 1966, Nick Faldo in 1990 and Tiger Woods in 2002.
So, there you have it. A player with a solid Masters record, recent major success, length off the tee, ball-striking chops and promising recent form – among a few other qualifiers.
Congrats on the upcoming green jacket, Xander Schauffele.
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