Israeli troops appear to have halted their advance into Lebanon short of their original objective of the Litani River. But Israel’s government has not moved off its stated intention to reoccupy southern Lebanon, which it held from 1982 to 2000.
When Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked for Canada’s response last week, he faced similar questions to those put to his predecessor Stephen Harper 20 years ago.
Harper drew criticism for his defence of Israeli actions in 2006 that included the bombing of a UN base that killed Canadian Army Maj. Paeta Hess-von Kruedener, the bombing of Beirut International Airport and threats by the IDF’s then chief of staff to smash civilian infrastructure so that “the clock will be turned back 20 years for the Lebanese people.”
“Israel’s response under the circumstances has been measured,” said Harper. He refused to condemn Israeli bombing that killed hundreds of civilians, among them seven members of the Canadian al-Akhras family — including four children — who were vacationing in Lebanon when the war broke out.
This time the Canadian reaction was very different.
“It’s an illegal invasion,” said Carney. “It’s a violation of their territorial sovereignty … we condemn it.”
WATCH | Carney condemns Israel’s invasion:
Carney condemns Israel’s ‘illegal invasion’ of Lebanon
Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned Israel’s invasion of Lebanon on Tuesday, amid a nearly month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah. ‘It’s an invasion of Lebanon, it’s a violation of their territorial sovereignty,’ Carney said.
The 2026 war closely echoes the 2006 war in terms of Israel’s stated justifications (Hezbollah rocket fire and its presence near the border) and its strategy (an invasion to push Hezbollah back and create some kind of buffer zone).
But the region and the politics around the war have all changed.
In Israel, those who once existed on the fringe of Israeli politics under police surveillance are now cabinet ministers in a government that is increasingly isolated on the world stage.
In Lebanon, there is more questioning of Hezbollah, and anger at its willingness to drag the country into war — but also early signs that some may be less willing to obey Israeli evacuation orders, convinced they may never be allowed to return, Lebanese analyst Bassel Doueik told CBC News.
“Where all these people are going to go? You have a dysfunctional government, a fragile state,” he said.
‘Way over the line’
In Canada, changed public attitudes have deprived Israel of what was once one of its most reliable international supporters.
“Increasingly the Canadian government recognizes that Israel’s actions are way over the line,” says Rex Brynen of McGill University, author of a number of books and articles on modern Lebanon.
“Whether that’s ongoing occupation in the West Bank, or the level of violence in Gaza, or the initiation of a new round of military actions against Iran and its explicit call for ethnically cleansing south Lebanon and long-term Israeli presence, I think there’s a recognition that Israel’s engaging in some very, very problematic behaviour,” he said.
Lebanon has been through many disasters in recent years, beginning with a flood of Syrian refugees in 2011, followed by an economic collapse and a catastrophic explosion that destroyed much of Beirut’s port.
“Since 2019, the country has not caught a breath,” said Doueik. “From the October Revolution to the port explosion to COVID-19 and then in 2023 the war with Hezbollah and now another war. So the situation is bad and it’s going to get worse in the coming weeks.”
WATCH | Israel kills 3 journalists in southern Lebanon strike:
Israel kills 3 journalists in southern Lebanon strike
Three journalists in southern Lebanon were killed by a targeted Israeli strike Saturday. Top officials in Lebanon condemned the strike, with President Joseph Aoun calling it a ‘flagrant crime that violates all laws and agreements that protect journalists.’ Israel claimed without providing evidence that one of the journalists was a Hezbollah intelligence operative. The latest deaths bring the number of journalists and media workers killed this year in Lebanon to five.
Since its liquidity crisis began in 2019, Lebanon has lost about 40 per cent of its GDP. The Lebanese pound has been devalued by more than 95 per cent. Parents have given children up for adoption because they can’t afford to feed them.
“The World Bank called the liquidity crisis one of the worst cases of economic decline in modern economic history,” says Brynen. “Now we see Israeli threats to depopulate south Lebanon, and the difficulties of an always-weak Lebanese central government. Lebanon is in a terrible, terrible state right now.”
Hezbollah’s position weakened
Also changed is the position of Hezbollah, the dominant political party of Lebanon’s Shia Muslim community that formed in the early 1980s during the Israeli occupation. Its militia has long been the strongest armed force in the country.
Brynen says many within Lebanon now see Hezbollah as “all too willing to sacrifice Lebanese civilians to advance Iran’s goals” and are “sick and tired of Hezbollah deciding on its own to drag Lebanon into war.”
But he said the Lebanese government’s newfound will to disarm Hezbollah needs time to bear fruit.
And in the context of Israel once again occupying Lebanese land, “Hezbollah starts looking like the resistance again.”
Carney acknowledged the Lebanese government’s steps to rein in Hezbollah in his condemnation of Israel’s attack.
WATCH | From 2024: International community shifts on Israel:
Israel is increasingly isolated. Does it care? | About That
The international community is growing more critical of Israel’s military operation in Gaza after accusations of genocide, talk of arrest warrants and airstrikes that killed civilians in Rafah. Andrew Chang breaks down the global shift in stance, and how Israel is responding to the pressure.
Ground zero of these struggles is in the villages along the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Mayors and officials of Christian-majority villages report receiving calls from the IDF telling them that Christians and Druze can remain in the future Israeli-occupied zone. But the IDF has reportedly ordered all Shia Muslims — who make up the vast majority of southern Lebanon’s population — to leave, and warned Christians not to harbour them at risk to their own homes and lives.
CBC News asked the Israeli government about those orders, but didn’t receive a response.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog has called for other countries to support Israel’s war in Lebanon, which he said marks a “historical juncture,” after which “the whole direction of the region will change.”
“It should be the Lebanese army that should do the work, but we know that they have their limitations,” he said. “We are demanding from Lebanon and from their army to do the work.”
A woman walks on her way to attend Palm Sunday mass at Saint Thomas Cathedral, in the southern Lebanon port city of Tyre. (Hussein Malla/The Associated Press)
Doueik says this would mirror what happened in in the 1980s.
“We’ve seen that some communities have actually expelled displaced people because they’re afraid that the IDF will actually bomb these areas,” he said.
Brynen agreed that the IDF appears to be repeating the strategy of its 1982-2000 occupation.
The Catholic priest of one village, and the brother of the parish priest in another, were killed in the early days of the war by IDF tank fire and an IDF drone after ignoring evacuation orders.
Fear drives displacement
Doueik says Israel’s efforts to isolate Christians and Druze from their Shia Muslim neighbours risk causing long-term damage to communal relations, still recovering from 18 years of Israeli occupation marked by forced disappearances and heavy use of torture.
Destructive as that invasion was, the plan this time may be much worse. Defence Minister Israel Katz used his X account to openly declare Israel’s intention to “accelerate the destruction of Lebanese homes,” continuing a pattern that began in 2023.
Over Easter weekend, the IDF blew up homes in villages close to the border such as Naqoura, Taybeh, Ayta al-Shaab, Ramyah and Khiam. Between 40 and 60 villages and hamlets appear to have been almost completely destroyed.
Les crimes de guerre se poursuivent au sud du Liban, l’armée israélienne vient de démolir des dizaines d’habitations à l’aide d’explosifs à Naqoura. pic.twitter.com/o5w9USAywv
Doueik says Israel is “trying to create some kind of a no-man’s land that goes along the borderline … and then a multi-phased buffer zone.”
He says fear of not being allowed to return is leading many to ignore Israeli orders to leave, as is the inability of the bankrupt Lebanese state to help them.
“Many people prefer to stay in their homes even if they are bombed, because they feel ashamed to go and stay in the streets in Beirut or other places,” he said.
Official figures show that the Lebanese government could only provide shelter for at most 180,000 of the more than one million people in the evacuation zone.
The nightmare scenario
The most alarming difference between 2006 and 2026, says Brynen, is the presence in the Netanyahu government of extremists committed to a vision of an Israel that spreads into neighbouring countries.
“We should all remember that the West Bank started like that too in 1967,” he said. “It was a ‘security buffer,’ and then settlers started coming in. We’ve had people in the right in Israel long argue that not only should the West Bank and Gaza be part of Israel, but also Lebanon south of the Litani.”
Doueik concurs that the deepest fear in Lebanon is that Israeli occupation aims at annexation and settlement.
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is supported by the most far-right people in Israel, people like [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben Gvir and [Finance Minister] Bezalel Smotrich, who’ve been saying they want to extend the borders of Israel,” he said.
“And this is what the Lebanese fear most, because they say if the Lebanese army cannot protect us, then what or who is going to stop Israel from annexing that land?”
