The remaining ATP 500 Barcelona Round of 16 matches on April 14 feature a mix of clear favourites and tight contests. Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz are expected to take control of their matches, with Alcaraz likely to dominate convincingly. At the same time, Tomas Machac’s recent level gives him the edge in what looks like a more balanced clash against Sebastian Baez.
ATP 500 Barcelona 1/16-Finals
Ugo Carabelli – Khachanov: 14.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Marrakech, where he lost to Jodar in the semifinals.
Karen Khachanov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Khachanov lost to Rinderknech in the opening round in straight sets. Last season in Barcelona, the Russian lost to Rune in the semifinals in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Khachanov is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He has always made it past the opening round in all seven appearances in Barcelona. We expect Khachanov to dominate on his serve and get a comfortable win.
That being said, Khachanov winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Karen Khachanov winning @1.50 @bet365
Machac – Baez: 14.04.2026 14:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Tomas Machac has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Machac lost to Sinner in the 1/8-Finals in three tight sets. This is his second appearance in Barcelona. He has never made it past the second round here.
Sebastian Baez has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Baez lost to Alcaraz in the second round in straight sets. Last season in Barcelona, the Argentine lost to Rune in the second round. He has never made it past the second round here.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Machac played well against Sinner last week. On the other hand, Baez never succeeded in Barcelona and has struggled with his form for the past few weeks. We expect Machac to be a better player.
That being said, Machac winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tomas Machac winning @1.73 @bet365
Alcaraz – Virtanen: 14.04.2026 16:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Carlos Alcaraz has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard lost to Sinner in the final in straight sets. He was the champion here in 2022 and 2023. Last season in Barcelona, Alcaraz lost to Rune in the final.
Otto Virtanen has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Virtanen qualified for the main draw tournament. In the final qualifying round, Virtanen defeated Muller in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the heavy favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Virtanen rarely succeeded on clay courts. We expect Alcaraz to dominate and get an easy win.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
