President Donald Trump in a new interview airing Wednesday said the Iran war was “very close to over.” (Take that for what it’s worth, though, since it’s been five weeks since he said it was “very complete.”)
He also made arguably his most extensive case to date that the war has been worth the spike in energy prices and the stock market volatility. He said it was all about stopping Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon.
“To stop that, it was certainly worthwhile,” Trump told Fox Business Network, arguing oil prices haven’t risen as much as he thought they might.
“I think we’re doing very well,” he added. “And maybe people assume we’re going to win this thing pretty soon. We’ve beaten them militarily, totally.”
But this is a rosy view of the situation that doesn’t match Americans’ perceptions.
In fact, the war is getting more unpopular over time. And as we’ve gotten more extensive polling, we learning more about why that is.
Here are a few key points on that front.
While Trump has declared the war is close to being over and a success, Americans don’t see it that way. And they certainly don’t see it as a strategic success.
A CBS News-YouGov poll over the weekend showed 36% said the military operations were successful. Another 31% said it was too soon to say, while 33% said they were not successful.
But Americans were even less sold on the strategic side of things. Just 25% said the war was a strategic success — far less than the 42% who deemed it a failure.
And when it comes to key objectives, Americans overwhelmingly don’t see them being met:
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Just 7% said Iran’s leaders are more pro-US now (despite Trump claiming that Iran has a “new regime” that is “pretty reasonable.”)
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Just 8% said the war has prevented Tehran from threatening other countries (despite Trump saying the war “stopped” Iran from taking over or taking out the Middle East.)
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And just 11% said it has permanently stopped Iran’s nuclear program (despite Trump saying that’s the No. 1 goal and having said his June strikes in Iran “obliterated” its nuclear facilities.)
Even Trump might concede that last one is a work in progress. But the other key point is that Americans just don’t think the war is going to accomplish it.
In fact, they don’t even think the war has been a net positive on that front.
A recent Pew Research Center poll showed only 27% of Americans said the war would ultimately make Iran’s development of a nuke “less likely.” That’s the same as the 27% who viewed it as “more likely.” (Another 4 in 10 were neutral.)
Trump’s pitch, as he laid it out in the Fox Business interview, was that today’s costs will be worth the long-term benefits.
But Americans aren’t just worried about the short-term economic costs; they also don’t see the long-term security payoff.
A new Ipsos poll this week showed 51% said the benefits of the war wouldn’t be worth the costs, compared to just 24% who said they would be. (The rest were neutral.)
It also asked whether the war would make US national security better or worse “over the long run.” Just 26% said it would improve national security, while 41% said it would actually make it worse.
And a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showed similar skepticism.
Only about 3 in 10 Americans said the war would make the world “more stable,” compared to half who disagreed.
Despite self-identified MAGA supporters backing this war, evidence is building that Trump’s base, defined more broadly, is quite skeptical.
In many polls, 20% or 25% of Republicans and Trump voters generally disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. But there’s also the mushy middle. These people don’t outright oppose the war, but don’t really see the point, either.
The Ipsos poll showed just 57% of Republicans thought the war would improve US national security over the long run, and just 55% said the cost-benefit analysis would be worth it.
Similarly, the CBS poll showed just 56% of Republicans said the war has been successful in terms of strategic interests.
In both cases, most of the rest chose a middle-ground option. A huge chunk of Trump’s base is clearly not bought in.
Even as Trump has leaned increasingly into a more militaristic and interventionist foreign policy, Americans have less confidence in him to carry that out.
The Pew poll features some pretty staggering charts and numbers:
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The percentage of Americans who are not confident that Trump will make good decisions on Iran has increased from 50% during the 2024 campaign to 56% after the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities to 64% in March.
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We’ve seen similar increases when it comes to the war in Ukraine and dealing with China.
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Only 66% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are at least “somewhat” confident in Trump’s handling of Iran.
Similarly, the CBS poll showed just 23% of Americans had “a lot” of confidence in Trump to make the right decisions about Iran. Another 18% had “some,” while about 6 in 10 had “not much” or “none.”
Perhaps most politically troubling for Trump and the GOP ahead of the midterms is inflation, which just jumped amid the oil shock.
Americans were already down on Trump on that issue — and that’s worsened for him since the war started. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of his handling of inflation has been at 67%, 68%, 69% and 71% in recent polls.
It’s pretty rare that 7 in 10 Americans agree on anything, but Trump’s failure on inflation is now one of them.
And it appears to be bleeding into the president’s overall number on the economy. A CNN poll two weeks ago showed his approval rating on that issue dropping to 31% — lower than it ever was for either himself or Joe Biden.
