The Diamondbacks come into this series as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They’ve won seven out of their last ten, have only lost one series this season. They’re on fire. Unfortunately, they are exactly the third hottest team in baseball. The other two are directly in front of them in the NL West standings. The Padres have won eight straight. The Dodgers eight out of ten. It’s truly exhausting to be a fan of an NL West team. But hey, we’re a tenth of the way through the season and the Dbacks are in a playoff position. Take the little wins, even if we can never make up ground in our division.
The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are not in great shape. They’re even more injured than the Diamondbacks are, and have more money on the IL right now than some teams do. They are scuffling as much as would be expected at this point. They’ve only won a single series; a sweep of the Athletics to start the season. Since then, they haven’t won a single one, and that includes a series against both the Rockies as well as the White Sox, who swept them. Add in being in the AL East, which is always going to be competitive, the Jays have already dug themselves a hole that they’ll be chasing for the rest of the season.
Game 1 — 4/17, 6:40 PM — Michael Soroka (3-0, 2.87 ERA/146 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP) vs Eric Lauer (1-2, 7.82 ERA/59 ERA+, 1.57 WHIP)
Michael Soroka was supposed to just be a placeholder until Merrill Kelly came back, and then he would go to the bullpen. Instead, he’s been arguably the best starter on the team, currently on pace for 230 strike outs this season, and Brandon Pfaadt, he of the long term extension just 13 months ago, was banished to the bullpen instead. It’s totally deserved on Soroka’s part. He’s had a single bad inning all season, and other than that four run first against the Phillies, he’s been stellar. So far this season, he’s looked far more like the sixth placing Cy Young nominee he was in his rookie season than bargain bin pick up. Good for him.
Lauer has not had a great season at all. He’s pitched 12 2/3 innings so far. He’s given up 11 hits, 11 ER, 3 HR, and nine walks. Most of those counting stats came in his last outing against the Twins he gave up seven runs and five walks in 5 1/3 inning, but the White Sox knocked him from the game in just two innings prior to that, and he gave up another two runs there. Small sample sizes still apply, of course, but early returns have been less than stellar for the 30 year old pitcher.
Game 2 — 4/18, 5:10 PM — Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60 ERA/116 ERA+, 1.45 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (1-2, 9.58 ERA/48 ERA+, 1.45 WHIP)
Zac Gallen has been alright to start the season. Not great, but flashes of good. Got hit for four runs in four innings on opening day, but followed it up with 11 innings of two run baseball, but couldn’t keep it going and gave up three in 5 IP last time out against the Phillies. I don’t really think anyone was expecting Ace level shut down work from Gallen this season, so there isn’t much to be disappointed about, but still, like most of his output for the past three seasons or so, you’re left with the feeling it could be better.
I won’t lie, I was kind of hoping Scherzer would get the roster spot currently occupied by Soroka. Purely nostalgic, and, uh, wow, I’m so glad I’m not the GM of the Diamondbacks. Probably a reason for that, now that I’m thinking about it. He’s only gotten out of the third inning once in three starts, and he gave up eight runs to the Twins in his last start. One has to wonder, when is he going to retire, or will the league have to decide he is retired for him? Either way, it’s kind of a sad end to a surefire HOF career.
Game 3 — 4/19, 1:10 PM — Ryne Nelson (1-1, 3.54 ERA/118 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP) vs. Kevin Gausman (0-1, 2.42 ERA/187 ERA+, 0.85 WHIP)
Nelson has had an interesting season. Some of his stats are still being overly effected by his 7 run, 2 earned run game against the Braves, for sure, and outside of that start he’s gotten good results. His FIP is still very high, but it’s coming down with each start. That in particular is being hurt by his high walk numbers and lower strike out numbers, but, again, both of those are getting better as time goes on. He hasn’t quite lived up to the standard he set for himself the past season and a half, nor the expectations many had going into this season, but he’s still been good to start.
Kevin Gausman is off to a great start to the season, and he’s also providing the latest example of why Pitcher Wins are a useless statistic. After four starts, he’s yet to get a win, even though he’s got a low 2’s ERA, a 180’s ERA+, and would be the best pitcher on the Diamondbacks by a mile. This start will be the real test for the Diamondbacks in this series.
This is a beatable team that’s coming into Chase Field this weekend. They’re reeling from injuries, their pitchers have been ineffective, and the top of the Diamondbacks rotation is lined up to take them on. Games 1 and 2 should be easy. Three is close, but a strong Nelson performance can put that away as well. Honestly, I’m going to call it. Diamondbacks win three out of three.
