FOXBORO — The Patriots might have lucked out by advancing as far as they did in last year’s Super Bowl run, subsequently moving down the 2026 NFL Draft board all the way to 31st overall.
If there’s a year to pick late in the first round, this is the one. There are so few top-end players at premium positions this year that two linebackers, a running back and a safety (all lower valued spots) might all get drafted in the top 10. The player pool also gets ugly when you dig deep into the third day of the draft. But the Patriots might be picking in the sweet spot at No. 31 overall in the first round.
“It’s fine in that range,” an AFC personnel executive told the Herald. “I think it’s like a normal draft from the second to fourth round. A little light at the top and bottom.”
The draft is especially shallow at quarterback, running back and center. The Patriots should be looking for a developmental quarterback and running back in this year’s class, but executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf already hinted last week that the team won’t be looking for a center.
“I like to look at it more along the lines of what don’t we need?” Wolf said at the Patriots’ pre-draft press conference. “Because there’s a lot less of that when you look at it that way. Center is always a good one. If you have two really good centers, well, you’re not going to draft a third center because it just – everything has to work together.”
An NFC South area scout agreed that the Patriots are picking at a good spot.
“There isn’t a ton of top-tier talent — maybe only five to six premier guys,” he said. “After them, there’s a lot of similarly graded players from the back half of the first into the top of the second.”
Dane Brugler of The Athletic has Ohio State linebacker/edge defender Arvell Reese, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane as the sixth-highest-ranked players in his 2026 NFL Draft Guide.
Texas Tech edge defender David Bailey, Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa, Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate and Miami edge defender Rueben Bain are also considered top prospects this year.
Ohio State defensive back Caleb Downs plays against Penn State during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete, File)
“There are definitely some strong options in that range, but it seems to be positionally-focused,” an NFC West analytics executive told the Herald. “This class is deep at offensive tackle and linebacker, with the potential for some top-level edges to fall, but you’d be looking at second/third-tier options at other spots.”
Offensive tackle, linebacker and edge defender all are positions of need for the Patriots. There are seven offensive tackles — Mauigoa, Utah’s Spencer Fano, Georgia’s Monroe Freeling, Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, Utah’s Caleb Lomu, Clemson’s Blake Miller and Arizona State’s Max Iheanachor — ranked in Brugler’s top 33 players. He has 11 edge defenders ranked in this top 50.
Wolf likes the depth at linebacker in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds.
“I think there’s a lot of players that you could justify using a Day 3 pick on,” he said last week.
An AFC South area scout sees a “deep crop of depth in that late-first to mid-second round that’s going to be legit.”
“I’d expect teams being active in that range,” he told the Herald.
At least in Brugler’s pre-draft rankings, there are dropoffs near the end of the first round at quarterback from Alabama’s Ty Simpson (No. 42 overall) to LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (No. 81), running back from Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price (No. 51) to Arkansas’s Mike Washington Jr. (No. 85), offensive tackle from Iheanachor (No. 33) to Northwestern’s Caleb Tiernan (No. 65), guard from Texas A&M’s Chase Bisontis (No. 34) to Oregon’s Emmanuel Pregnon (No. 57) and safety from Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to Miami’s Keionte Scott.
An AFC assistant GM wasn’t quite as high on the 31st overall pick, saying it’s “not the worst spot to be in,” while an AFC South analytics executive called the end of the first round “generally (weak),” but “that seems to be about the sentiment every year.”
One thing is clear, however: The Patriots were smart to select quarterback Drake Maye when they had the chance third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft rather than trading down.
The Titans took Cam Ward first overall in 2025, then the next quarterback wasn’t selected until 25th overall when the Giants picked Jaxson Dart. Mendoza will go first overall to the Raiders this year, but there’s really no consensus on when Simpson will go off the board.
Some team might be willing to part with picks in this year’s draft or future picks to trade up to No. 31 overall to take him, however, because there’s tons of value in having the fifth-year option available in a quarterback’s contract. Only players taken in the first round come with a fifth-year option.
Leftovers from Wolf
Wolf was asked what he’s looking for in edge defenders in this year’s draft. To summarize: big and fast.
“I never want a smaller guy. No, faster guy. I said I never want a smaller guy,” Wolf said. “Yeah, we could complement our room with some speed. I think that’s evident. Dre’Mont (Jones), Harold (Landry III), Elijah (Ponder) and some of the other guys we have, they all have their skill sets. We would like to get faster. Dre’Mont’s a guy that can play across the line, run games. I mean, he can sneaky beat you with speed, but that’s probably not his bread and butter. So, that’s an area that we’re looking to try to improve the depth on the roster.”
So, among players who could be available for the Patriots, who qualifies as big and fast based on pre-draft measurables? Let’s set the threshold at 250 pounds and a sub 4.7-second 40-yard dash.
Clemson’s T.J. Parker (6-4, 263, 4.68s), UCF’s Malachi Lawrence (6-4, 253, 4.52s), Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell (6-3, 253, 4.59s), Illinois’s Gabe Jacas (6-4, 261, 4.69s) and Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton (6-6, 256, 4.63s) could all be selected before the third round. Later in the draft, Logan Fano (6-5, 252, 4.59s) fits the mold.
Western Michigan’s Adam Vandervest, right, blocks Illinois star Gabe Jacas during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, in Champaign, Ill. (AP Photo/Melissa Tamez)
Lawrence and Jacas both took Top 30 visits with the Patriots, per sources. Jacas’s visit came this week, while Lawrence’s was in late-March.
Lawrence is projected to go right around where the Patriots are picking at No. 31 overall. Jacas is wildly regarded as a second-round prospect.
Boston College wide receiver Lewis Bond also visited the Patriots, per a source.
Future free agents
Wolf isn’t only looking at the team’s current needs as the Patriots approach the 2026 NFL Draft, but also down the line to potentially replace future free agents.
“I think it’s easy to look at a piece of paper or a depth chart right now and just kind of see what our needs are right this second, but you also have to factor in who’s going to be a free agent next year because this isn’t just a one-year filler,” Wolf said. “This is a long-term commitment, especially with the early-round guys that you think are going to be there.”
So, who are some notable players set to become free agents in 2027? Safety Kevin Byard, right guard Mike Onwenu, tight end Hunter Henry, wide receivers Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas and linebacker Christian Elliss, among others.
The Patriots have a need at right tackle because Morgan Moses is 35 years old and probably won’t be on the team for another four or five years. But right guard is also a need if the Patriots don’t plan on re-signing Onwenu. Tight end, wide receiver and linebacker are already viewed as needs for the Patriots.
New England Patriots offensive tackle Morgan Moses warms up before an NFL game against the New York Jets on Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025 in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Addressing future needs is also important this year if the Patriots plan to trade for Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown. If a deal is made after June 1, then the Patriots very well could be without a first-round pick next year.
Wolf on Vrabel
Wolf was asked just one question about Vrabel, who has found himself in the midst of controversy after pictures of him embracing and holding hands with former Athletic reporter Dianna Russini were published on Page 6. Wolf was asked how involved Vrabel has been in pre-draft meetings.
There seemed to be some surprise that Wolf wasn’t asked more questions about Vrabel. Wolf isn’t ownership, and Vrabel is his peer within the organization. Wolf shouldn’t have to answer for the head coach.
Vrabel spoke after the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft last year. He also handled the Patriots’ pre-draft press conference last year.
Extra points
The Commanders, Rams and Ravens updated their uniforms this week, while the Titans and Falcons made changes earlier this offseason. The streamlined and more old-school approach has been welcome for this writer, who grew up in the 1990s. … The Patriots have improved their current set of uniforms by introducing silver pants to home uniforms and an all-white set for the road unis. I’d like to see more changes in the future. A white helmet would look good with the Patriots’ blue home jerseys and white pants, and I’m still waiting for the team to bring back the 1990s Bledsoe Blues. … The Giants traded defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for the 10th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after failing to come to an agreement on a new contract. It would have been hard to imagine the Patriots trading a first for Lawrence and giving him a costly extension with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore already under contract. He’s a talented player, however.
