Regardless of who ends up leading the Toronto Maple Leafs into the future, there is not one player on the team who feels like a sure thing to be back next season.
Anyone could go this offseason — from stars such as Auston Matthews and William Nylander to franchise staples such as Morgan Rielly to supporting parts such as Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
There are no sure things here.
Which is why we decided to do things a little differently this year. Instead of ordering players into tiers, we’ll evaluate every individual’s case to stay or go (minus late-season callups such as William Villeneuve and Michael Pezzetta) and try to prognosticate on the likeliest outcome — even if many of these feel like 50-50 propositions.
Forwards
Easton Cowan
Why he stays: Cowan, who turns 21 next month, is one of the few young pieces of consequence the Leafs have. After an encouraging, if predictably inconsistent, rookie season, he lines up as someone who should play a helpful role, on the cheap, somewhere in the top nine next season. Cowan’s upside is also still very much TBD. The Leafs can’t move him before they figure out exactly what he is.
Why he goes: The Leafs have very few trade chips and Cowan, in theory, could be one in some kind of blockbuster offseason deal.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
Retool or rebuild, Cowan is a vital piece of the Leafs’ present and future.
Max Domi
Why he stays: The contract, which includes a 13-team no-trade clause, would be the likeliest thing that keeps him here: Domi still has two more years left on his deal, at $3.75 million on the cap annually. His value will be low after a season that saw him struggle defensively and record only 36 points, despite playing regularly with Matthews. The Leafs may not be able to move him.
Why he goes: The free-agent forward market is thin and some team may talk themselves into Domi as a mildly versatile forward they can get for next to nothing.
Likely outcome: Goes
It feels like it’s time to turn the page on one of Brad Treliving’s biggest missteps as Leafs GM. The Leafs need to improve defensively next season and that’s hard to do with Domi in the mix. If they wanted to move him and couldn’t, they could simply waive Domi and, if he clears, send him to the minors. That would bring his cap hit down to $2.5 million.
Calle Järnkrok
Why he stays: He’s a close pal of Nylander and a low-maintenance veteran who can hang around as a 13th forward — were the Leafs to bring him back on a new contract.
Why he goes: Järnkrok failed to provide any value last season, and with his four-year contract expiring, the Leafs can simply let him go.
Likely outcome: Goes
Relationship with Nylander aside, there’s no good reason to bring Järnkrok back.
Dakota Joshua
Why he stays: He still has two years left on his contract, with a not-insignificant cap hit of $3.25 million. Joshua will turn 30 next month. He had an inauspicious first season with the Leafs, scoring only 10 goals and 18 points with an unimpactful physical presence. It is hard to see him drawing much trade interest.
Why he goes: It only takes one team to think there’s more there than the Leafs got last season. The Leafs were that team last summer.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
The team will have to hope that Joshua can rebuild his value next season, perhaps as a physical fourth liner who kicks in the odd goal.
Matthew Knies
Why he stays: He is the best under-25 piece the Leafs have. Knies won’t turn 24 until the fall and while he was unable to live up to expectations last season, he still produced 66 points. He has all the tools to be a star power forward — and do so on a good contract.
Why he goes: Treliving dangled him in trade talks at each of the past two trade deadlines. The reason was simple: Knies was the most valuable trade chip the Leafs had who lacked trade protection himself. The new front office may see Knies in a similar light and try to cash him in now.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
This feels like it could go either way. Knies still has five years left on a deal that could age very well if he eventually blossoms into a star ($7.75 million cap hit). If he can bring the Leafs back a marquee defenceman or a package of present and future assets, they may decide to move him. They might, on the other hand, view him as one of the few pieces on the roster who can bridge the gap between present and future.
The Leafs dangled Matthew Knies in trade talks at the past two deadlines. (Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
Steven Lorentz
Why he stays: The Toronto native still has two years left on his contract. And while he’s coming off an underwhelming season, Lorentz also brings a predictable product as an energetic fourth liner and penalty killer.
Why he goes: He could be an easy change to make. Flip him elsewhere, say, in an effort to change the forward mix.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
The Leafs have bigger things to worry about this offseason.
Matias Maccelli
Why he stays: The Leafs are going to need some forwards and Maccelli has a bit more sheen on him than Domi and Nick Robertson. He didn’t have a good first season in Toronto, but he wasn’t bad either. Maccelli finished second on the Leafs in five-on-five points per 60 minutes, trailing only Nylander.
Why he goes: Maccelli is a pending RFA with arbitration rights. He is due a qualifying offer of $4.1 million. A bit steep, in short, for someone who has produced only 57 points in 126 games the last two seasons.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
The Leafs could try to avoid the RFA process entirely by attempting to bring back Maccelli on a deal with a smaller cap hit than that qualifying offer number. Some of this might depend on who the coach is. If Craig Berube returns, the likelihood that Maccelli returns probably drops.
Auston Matthews
Why he stays: He buys what the new head of hockey ops is selling and decides to give the Leafs another chance to turn things around.
Why he goes: He no longer sees any hope of winning a Stanley Cup with the Leafs. Maybe that’s because he doesn’t like what he’s sold by the next Leaf boss or he simply looks around — at the roster, at management, at ownership — and no longer believes in the future of the only NHL team he’s ever known.
Auston Matthews has yet to decide whether he wants to be part of the Leafs’ future. (Sergei Belski / Imagn Images)
Likeliest outcome: Stays
The biggest domino of the offseason for the Leafs, the one that will determine whether they retool or rebuild, and one that truly feels like it could go either way. I’ll lean stay because I know Matthews loves playing in Toronto and wants to win as a Leaf — if he can.
William Nylander
Why he stays: He still has six years left on his contract, loves playing in Toronto and wants to stay — if the Leafs remain intent on trying to win.
Why he goes: If Matthews seeks an exit, and the Leafs decide they must rebuild as a result, Nylander could become the next piece to move.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
That he wants to stay is significant. And while there is a world in which Matthews moves on, that world doesn’t necessarily have to include Nylander moving too.
Jacob Quillan
Why he stays: The Leafs decide that Quillan, a young-ish forward (he’s 24), might be able to play a depth role in the future. And while he needs a new contract this summer, as a pending RFA, that contract won’t be for much.
Why he goes: The new regime decides he doesn’t have an NHL future, not with the Leafs anyway, and simply decides not to qualify his contract.
Likeliest outcome: Goes
Quillan’s late-season performance wasn’t especially impressive. Though he flashed some modest wheels, he managed only one goal and drew only 10 minutes a night – and the Leafs were hammered when he was out there (38 percent expected goals).
Nick Robertson
Why he stays: The same reason he’s stayed in past years: The Leafs decide they would rather not lose him for nothing and figure they can use his goal-scoring next season.
Why he goes: Robertson needs a new contract — again — and the new front office decides not to give it to him by passing up on his qualifying offer and letting him walk as a free agent.
Likeliest outcome: Goes
It’s time. Robertson made his NHL debut almost six years ago and the same questions around his non-scoring abilities haven’t gone away.
Nick Robertson’s time as a Leaf may finally come to an end this summer. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
John Tavares
Why he stays: He wants to end his career in Toronto and still has three years left on the contract he signed last summer. And while it’s past time that his role changes, Tavares can still provide a lot of value as someone who can put the puck in the net and win 60 percent of his draws.
Why he goes: The Leafs pivot to a rebuild, ending Tavares’ dream of winning a Cup at home. He decides he’d rather chase that dream elsewhere and the Leafs accommodate his request in a trade.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
Like Nylander, he wants to be here. And even if a rebuild became a reality, it’s conceivable that Tavares would want to stick around anyway, and that the Leafs would want him around as a veteran leader too.
Defence
Simon Benoit
Why he stays: Though he had a difficult time last season, Benoit might be worth keeping around as depth on the blue line. Trade interest may be limited with his current price tag ($1.35 million on the cap), a touch inflated for what he is.
Why he goes: The front office wants to remodel the blue line and finds a suitor willing to take on the final year of Benoit’s contract.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
Rebuild or retool, he’s an easy piece to keep around, though his days of playing every night may be over.
Brandon Carlo
Why he stays: He has another year on his contract at a decent rate ($3.49 million cap hit) and the Leafs would be selling low if they moved him this offseason. Right-shooting defenders can be tough to find and pricey to acquire.
Why he goes: The blue line needs more skill and mobility than Carlo can offer. His contract and the fact that he’s a commodity, as a big right-shooting D, should make him easy to move. It might not be the worst thing either to clean the slate from one of the worst trades in recent Leafs history.
Likeliest outcome: Goes
Flipping Carlo for something of value in a trade and then signing a replacement in free agency makes a lot of sense. Even after last season, his trade value might be reasonably high.
Brandon Carlo could be on the move this summer. (Marc DesRosiers / IMAGN Images)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Why he stays: He can play both sides, he plays hard, he brings some offence and he’s a pro. He’s useful. His contract — with two more years left and a $3.5 million cap hit — is fine.
Why he goes: Ekman-Larsson will be 35 in July and his value will likely never be higher after a 39-point age-34 season. If the Leafs are going to retool on the fly, this is how they do it: Flip expendable players for assets and replace them through other means.
Likeliest outcome: Goes
The last front office flirted with an Ekman-Larsson trade at the deadline. The next regime should take whatever assets it can get and move on. Another thing: It’s hard, for fit reasons, to bring back Ekman-Larsson and Morgan Rielly, and Rielly is going to be much harder to move.
Jake McCabe
Why he stays: McCabe is a solid defender on a solid contract — with four more years and a $4.51 million cap hit — and the Leafs can slot him in comfortably on the left side of one of their top two pairs. With a capable partner, McCabe has shown that he can survive and even thrive in very difficult minutes.
Why he goes: He could have real trade value, more than anyone else on the back end, if the team were ever inclined to move him.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
McCabe is the most stable piece the Leafs have on defence and is someone who can play a valuable role on a contending team (if that’s what the Leafs still aim to be).
Philippe Myers
Why he stays: He has another year left on his contract at the NHL minimum and likely wouldn’t draw any trade interest.
Why he goes: He has another year left on his contract at the NHL minimum and draws one team (that’s all it takes!) with trade interest.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
Even if he does return, it’s hard to envision Myers having a regular role with the Leafs (or perhaps even in the NHL) next season.
Morgan Rielly
Why he stays: He wants to stay. He has full say on that decision with the no-movement clause in his contract. And that contract might be prohibitive to most teams (let alone teams Rielly would consider going to) in a trade, with four years remaining and a $7.5 million cap hit.
Why he goes: The new regime decides it must force Rielly out some way, somehow, even if it means eating some of his deal in a trade.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
The obstacles to a deal make it likelier than not that he sticks around. The Leafs might also be inclined to see how much of Rielly’s play the last two seasons is age-related decline and how much is about the coach and his system.
Troy Stecher
Why he stays: He could be a source of cheap, useful depth on the right side if the Leafs brought him back on a new contract.
Why he goes: The blue line needs some change, and bringing back Stecher, when everyone else is under contract, won’t help with that.
Likeliest outcome: Goes
He was a great story for a little while there, but it’s time to turn the page.
Chris Tanev
Why he stays: He is coming off an injury-plagued season, which saw him play in 11 games. He has another four years left on his contract, and he’ll be 37 in December. Tanev still has the promise, albeit fragile, of being a top-notch defender.
Why he goes: The Leafs find an interested suitor, despite all the red flags, and decide to get out of the contract while they still can.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
If the Leafs are going to bounce back to competitiveness next season, Tanev’s return to form and health figures to be a big part of it.
Goalies
Joseph Woll
Why he stays: Woll might be just coming into his own as an NHL goalie, with his 28th birthday in July and two fullish seasons in the books. He’s under contract for two more seasons at a very reasonable $3.67 million cap hit.
Will the Anthony Stolarz-Joseph Woll combo return next season? (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
Why he goes: The Leafs face a mild goalie crunch next fall, with No. 3 Dennis Hildeby set to require waivers. Woll boasts the most trade value among Hildeby and Anthony Stolarz, and the new GM decides to move him.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
Trading Woll would leave the Leafs with Hildeby (26 career NHL games) and Stolarz (who has never started more than 33 games in an NHL season) in the crease, a potentially fragile combination. Woll still has to shake off some of the fragility himself. The next step is playing close to 50 games.
Anthony Stolarz
Why he stays: He may be impossible to move, with the four-year extension he signed last fall set to begin after yet another injury-plagued season.
Why he goes: The Leafs find a rival willing to gamble on Stolarz, his $3.75 million cap hit proving palatable to a desperate team.
Likeliest outcome: Stays
The Leafs can sort out what to do with Hildeby in the fall. Stolarz and Woll are both injury-prone. There’s a chance, because of injury, that the team doesn’t need to move anyone at all, not right away anyway.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, PuckPedia, Cap Wages, and Evolving Hockey.
