When news about the Spygate scandal broke, coming less than 48 hours before the first leg of the play-off semi-final, the prospect of Southampton being removed from the play-offs seemed fanciful.
But with each passing day, and every new development, it has become ever-more realistic.
The answer is simple: truly, nobody knows and can only guess.
The independent disciplinary commission has a framework, but no set sanction to apply.
When it comes to profit and sustainability, clubs who lose money above the three-season £39m limit know straight away how many points they will be deducted.
But the Southampton hearing will be a more subjective case, weighing up the body of evidence presented.
As Saints are accused of spying before a crucial play-off match, rather than a standard league game, this could be seen as an aggravating factor. It is for this reason that a sporting sanction seems more appropriate.
After all, a fine would mean little to Southampton and offer minimal deterrent if the club were to then win promotion, and with it a guaranteed £110m.
That leaves a sporting sanction: a points deduction – which the EFL would have to recommend to the Premier League is applied in the top flight – or effectively disqualifying Saints.
There is no precedent to follow because no club has been charged with breaking rule 127 – the spying clause introduced only after Leeds were fined £200,000 for trying to covertly send a member of staff to Derby’s training ground in 2019.
