FLORENCE, Ky. — It’s three nights away from primary elections in Kentucky, and at U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie’s reelection campaign rally, the congressman isn’t shy about the stakes.
“This race is for all the marbles,” Massie, a 14-year incumbent locked in a tight race against a GOP opponent running with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, told a crowd of more than 100 supporters in Northern Kentucky. “Everybody has pushed all their chips in.”
Massie has the most to lose, in the short term at least.
His place in Congress is on the line, and while he entered the race against Ed Gallrein with a massive advantage in name identification, polling has tightened amid a record-breaking spending spree on ads that’s surpassed $25 million. With a loss, he’d be replaced in the general election by a challenger who’s tethered his public image to Trump — while he’s said he’d handle disagreements with the president privately, Gallrein has pledged to support the White House agenda wholeheartedly if voters send him to the Capitol.
But others know more is at stake as well. Just ask U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, the Colorado Republican who traveled east to back Massie in a series of weekend campaign events.
While speaking at Massie’s May 16 rally in Florence, Boebert told the audience, “I support the president and I support Thomas Massie,” before joking, “I think the president will still support me, but we’ll see.”
The crowd laughed. Trump didn’t. In a Truth Social post less than two hours after she spoke, the president put out a call to his followers: “Is anyone interested in running against Weak Minded Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District?”
“Boebert is campaigning for the Worst ‘Republican’ Congressman in the History of our Country, Thomas Massie, of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky, and anybody who can be that dumb deserves a good Primary fight!” he wrote. “Even though I long ago endorsed Boebert, if the right person came along, it would be my Honor to withdraw that Endorsement, and endorse a good and proper alternative.”
Minutes before that post, while speaking with reporters after the event, Massie was asked whether he believed elected federal office holders at the rally — including Boebert, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and Reps. Warren Davidson and Victoria Spartz — would face retaliation from the president. There’s strength in numbers, he said, and it was safer for several to attend than just one, but “whatever damage could happen to them will happen in the next three days.”
“If I lose, it’ll all be forgotten. Nobody will care that they came here,” Massie said. “If I win, they’ll probably be emboldened.”
On social media soon after Trump’s post, Boebert acknowledged she’d seen it but added she’s “not mad or offended.”
“I knew the risks when I agreed to stand by my friend Thomas Massie,” the congresswoman wrote on X. Notably, the filing deadline for a primary challenger to run against her in 2026 has passed.
Still, other speakers said, the risks of Massie losing his primary could trickle down to the state level as well.
The congressman has built a loyal following in his district that has infiltrated Frankfort in recent years, with a batch of “Liberty” Republicans who have grown in influence. Several of those state representatives who view Massie as an ideological leader spoke in Florence, and they’ll be watching his race closely as they all seek to remain at the Kentucky Capitol.
“If Thomas isn’t at the top of the Liberty movement here in Kentucky, we’re all gone,” state Rep. Steven Doan, R-Erlanger, told the crowd. “They’re going to come for us. They’re going to take us. Keeping Thomas in office keeps us in office and it keeps you all free.”
Meanwhile, state Rep. Savannah Maddox, R-Dry Ridge, told attendees to think about more than their representatives ahead of the May 19 election. She’s watched the money flow in, she said, and how it’s affected voters. She encouraged supporters to speak with older voters who may be “vulnerable to deceit in this particular election,” as recent polling has shown Gallrein has a significant edge among voters ages 55 and up amid an onslaught of ads supporting and opposing both candidates.
“This election is not just an election of who our next congressman will be here in the 4th Congressional District,” Maddox said. “It is a referendum on our nation’s future. It will tell us whether out-of-state liberal billionaires can walk into the commonwealth of Kentucky and buy an election.”
It’s a message Paul, who’s up for reelection in 2028 and who Trump described as “very difficult, and highly unreasonable” in a separate May 16 social media post, hit on as well.
“This election is about Thomas Massie but it’s about more than Thomas Massie — it’s about each of you,” he said. “It is about the remnant. It is about the wing of the party that believes in free markets and trade and capitalism.”
When asked about Paul after the event, Massie said if he loses his primary, he believes “there will be an attempt by the same sort of alliance to take out Senator Paul.”
That’s years down the line, though. Massie has his own campaign to think about this month.
He doesn’t know what will happen, he acknowledged after the May 16 rally. On May 18, a day before ballots will be cast, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is set to visit Kentucky to campaign for Gallrein.
But Massie’s “feeling good” in the race’s final days. He’s gotten good reception at recent events and noted several local officials who “know where their bread’s buttered” and wouldn’t want to back a losing campaign have endorsed him in the past few days.
And as for the tens of millions that have been spent on ads, with the majority favoring his opponent? In a few months, he said, there are other GOP supporters who should answer for them.
“Republicans are going to have a hell of a hangover,” Massie said. “They’re buying bad vodka and overpaying for it, and when they wake up in November and say, ‘Why did we light 35 million dollars of Republican donor money on fire in Kentucky’s 4th District, and end up with Congressman Massie again, being even more powerful?’ That’s going to be a hell of a hangover.”
Reach Lucas Aulbach at [email protected].
