Apologies to the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks, but this is where the real test begins for the Vegas Golden Knights with their first serious opponent. The Colorado Avalanche were the league’s best team this season, are 8-1 through the first two rounds, and don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. That’s a big step up from a couple of 92-point teams.
Colorado is the team to beat, a measuring stick for any team hoping to be the league’s very best. Do the Golden Knights stack up well as the Pacific’s best offering or will they be cannon-fodder to an actual contender?
The odds
Perhaps that’s a little harsh. Yes, Vegas only managed 39 wins and 95 points this year and yes, getting by the Mammoth and Ducks isn’t that impressive. But all year, it felt like the Golden Knights were a much better team than their record indicated.
That’s indicated well by their odds above: right in line with Minnesota’s chances against Colorado in the second round. In fact, they’d be even better if we had any sense of certainty about Mark Stone’s availability (we’ll get to that). What that means: If you thought the Wild were a serious team in the scary Central and a legit contender, a healthy Golden Knights team grades out just a little better.
Here’s what it also means: Even if Vegas is a legit contender, the Avalanche are in another realm above that.
Colorado looks like an unstoppable monster right now and starts the series as considerable favorites for good reason. It’ll take Vegas’ very best to climb that mountain.
The numbers
Just how strong do the Avalanche grade out by the numbers? A plus-84 Net Rating.
While Colorado’s opponents have progressively gotten stronger along the way, from L.A. at a plus-nine, Minnesota at a plus-45 and now Vegas at a plus-55, no one has been able to measure up to Colorado.
What separates the Avs and Golden Knights, above all else, is offense, with 26 goals between them.
Colorado’s five-on-five offense dominated the regular season, ranking first in shot volume, xG and scoring. And that’s stayed a threat through two rounds; while the Avs’ scoring chance creation is a shade lower so far compared to the regular season, their shot generation and goal scoring are still overwhelming.
The power play has been pretty dynamic, too. Now Colorado has to prove it isn’t solely thanks to a matchup against a short-handed Wild team. Vegas will be a test, considering how effective and disruptive its penalty kill has been lately.
Vegas could have the complete special-teams edge in this series if the first two rounds are an indication of what’s to come. After a slow start, the Golden Knights got their power play back on track, and they have a good chance of breaking through against an Avs penalty kill that has been a little leaky.
Five-on-five play tilts back toward Colorado, though, especially after Round 2. The Golden Knights were one of the top even-strength teams of the regular season and Round 1. While they outscored the Ducks 11-8, they didn’t control play as much, which likely won’t fly against this caliber of opponent.
The big question
When will Mark Stone return?
The way the Golden Knights closed out Anaheim — in a 5-1 win that was a bit of snooze, outside of some remarkable stuff from Mitch Marner — it might’ve been a little too easy to forget that, for a third straight game, Mark Stone was out of the lineup. Stone, after a relatively healthy season (and for him, 60 games counts), left Game 3 with a lower-body injury that was serious enough to stop him from being even a game-time decision.
Give the Golden Knights credit for handling their business without him, but if his absence continues, it’ll drive their already-high degree of difficulty against Colorado into the stratosphere. Without Stone, their odds would dip from 37 percent to 30. Our odds project a Game 3 return, but that’s obviously murky.
The Avs, of course, are dealing with injuries of their own; winger Artturi Lehkonen and defenseman Sam Malinski, both key contributors, are day-to-day. Neither, though, is their team’s second-best player — and that’s something you could credibly claim about Stone, regardless of the regular-season time he inevitably misses.
The differentiation point with Stone compared to other high-end forwards, something Jack Eichel and Marner also add to the mix, is elite defensive impact. With a projected Defensive Rating of plus-3.3, he leads the way among Vegas forwards and, if healthy, contributes to a layer of two-way excellence at the top of the lineup that even other playoff teams can’t match.
In the regular season, Stone scored 1.46 all-situations goals per 60, which was 23rd in the league among forwards with at least 1,000 minutes played, putting him just a tick behind Tage Thompson, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. He also remains one of the best playmaking wingers in the league, with a high shot-attempt rate and a primary assist rate (1.61 per 60) that tied him for seventh overall. Bundling that production with elite work in the defensive zone is rare, and a big reason to believe in Vegas’ upset chances.
Of course, when Stone is available against Colorado — and whether he will be at all — is an open question. It’s also worth noting that even before exiting the lineup, his play had dipped a bit from the regular season in terms of production (3.8 points per 60 to 2.4) and Game Score (1.82 to 1.01). No disrespect meant to the Mammoth and Ducks, but for Vegas, those teams were beatable with Stone falling short of his top level or not playing at all.
If he’s unable to go for any protracted amount of time, the Golden Knights’ best hope is for Marner to continue elevating his game. Indeed, he went from 2.97 points per 60 in the regular season to 4.3 in the playoffs and 5.45 against Anaheim and continued making a major defensive impact. Were that play to carry over, Vegas would almost certainly have a puncher’s chance. Odds are, though, that if they’re serious about pulling this off, they’ll need all three of their two-way studs to be in the lineup and near their absolute best. Colorado is a different beast that requires all hands on deck.
The X-factor
Can Colorado’s goalies hold the fort?
If there’s a nit to pick regarding the Avalanche’s 8-1 start to the postseason, it’s that their five-game second-round win over the Wild turned into a goalie shuffle. Scott Wedgewood was outstanding in Round 1 against the Los Angeles Kings, putting up a .950 save percentage and more than 3.5 goals saved above expected. He stubbed his toe in a wild 9-6 Game 1 over Minnesota, though, to the point that a solid Game 2 wasn’t enough to save him from a quick hook in Game 3 when he allowed three goals on the first 12 shots he faced.
Mackenzie Blackwood did enough in relief (12 saves on 13 shots in a 5-1 loss) to start and finish Game 4, but by the midpoint of Game 5, Wedgewood had returned. He stopped all seven shots he faced in the clincher, giving each goalie an .872 save percentage against Minnesota. You’d assume that would be enough to get Wedgewood the Game 1 start against Vegas, but Jared Bednar has shown he’s not shy about making a switch at the first sign of danger.
The rosters
On paper, Colorado has the edge in net regardless of who starts. Wedgewood and Blackwood each have a stronger body of work compared to Carter Hart and Wedgewood also has the narrow edge in playoff GSAx (0.52 to Hart’s minus-0.36). Don’t let Hart’s .917 save percentage fool you; Vegas’ stingy defensive structure is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
To Hart’s credit, he was genuinely great in the second round, saving 3.5 goals above expected with a .935 save percentage. Vegas will need that version of him to get by a much tougher opponent, but that may be a tall ask given his inconsistent resume. Colorado’s goaltending duo is a much safer bet.
That’s the trend across the board here, as expected given the massive standings discrepancy between the two clubs this season. At every position, Colorado looks stronger.
Up front is where Vegas comes closest. Pound-for-pound, the Golden Knights are almost there with a similar overall makeup led by a strong Big Three in Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Mitch Marner. None of those players is Nathan MacKinnon, sure, but Martin Necas and Brock Nelson aren’t Stone or Marner either.
That’s exactly why Stone’s health is imperative to any Vegas success. In his absence, Mitch Marner having his best playoff run helps, as does Jack Eichel quietly scoring 15 points in 12 games. Pavel Dorofeyev scoring nine goals and Brett Howden scoring eight is huge, too. But that was also against one of the easiest conference final paths in recent memory. Against the league’s best team, Vegas needs all hands on deck.
That may start with the fourth line, where Vegas’ bottom guys are a real sore spot. Nic Dowd and Keegan Kolesar have the lowest projected value of the bunch and are certainly showing why so far. Dowd is down 8-4 in goals with some of the worst underlying numbers on the team while Kolesar hasn’t been on for a single five-on-five goal yet and is down 0-4 himself.
In direct contrast, almost every Colorado forward is firing on all cylinders. Only three guys have an xG percentage lower than 55 percent and two of them are Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin. If those are the guys struggling, the Avs are in an OK spot — they’re a safe bet to find their groove at some point.
Gabriel Landeskog in particular has been incredible for the Avalanche and it’s clear his absence over the last several playoffs has been felt. He has eight points in nine games and a team-leading 67 percent xG rate, good for a Net Rating per 82 of plus-15. If Colorado’s captain is at that level, that solves any supposed Big Three disadvantage after MacKinnon, who is playing exactly as good as he always does.
MacKinnon is at the heart of the matchup calculus every opponent has to try to solve: how to slow down him and Cale Makar. The two continue to be an unsolvable problem in these playoffs and are up 6-1 in 100 minutes together while earning 65 percent of expected goals. It’s a typical level of greatness from the two and while Vegas has more defensive fortitude to slow them down compared to Los Angeles and Minnesota, it still may not be enough.
While things may be close up front, the presence of Makar is what gives Colorado its biggest advantage over Vegas: the back end. By projected Net Rating, 16 goals separate the two blue lines, which is a real testament to what Colorado has built. Vegas has a top 10 blue line in the league and it’s not even close to what Colorado possesses.
Makar, despite a low assist count, has been excellent for Colorado and a dominant force at five-on-five. But it’s his partner Devon Toews who’s been even better than ever in these playoffs so far. Toews’ game has dipped in recent years, but this return to form — 63 percent xG and eight points in nine games — is a major reason the Avalanche are 8-1 right now. At their peak, having two franchise-caliber defensemen on a super-pair was Colorado’s superpower; Toews has looked the part so far.
The Avalanche aren’t just a one-pair team either. Sam Malinski (if healthy), Josh Manson and Brent Burns all move the needle and Brett Kulak, the lone pressure point according to the model, has been terrific so far. With Kulak on the ice, the Avalanche have earned 59 percent of expected goals and he’s chipped in five points as well. Not bad.
Vegas has the requisite depth to hang with Colorado outside of Makar, but it hasn’t really manifested yet in these playoffs. Shea Theodore has been quietly incredible so far with a 62 percent xG rate and his plus-three Net Rating is tied with Marner for the team lead. The problem is what’s happened when he’s been off the ice. Vegas surprisingly only has a 50 percent goal rate in these playoffs and the split is really felt with Theodore on (10-7) compared to off (15-18).
A lot of that lands on the shoulders of Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson. Vegas has invested a significant amount of assets in the two defensemen and while they grade out well and finished the season strong, their playoff showing has been extremely pedestrian.
When they’re on the ice together, they’re getting just 45 percent of expected goals, an unacceptable level considering the competition faced. That pressure is going to ramp up significantly against the best team in the league and if Hanifin and Andersson can’t step up to handle it, that may ultimately spell Vegas’ demise.
The key matchup
Nathan MacKinnon vs. Mitch Marner
MacKinnon isn’t just one of the best players in the world in the regular season; he has a long track record of raising his game when it matters most.
Marner didn’t earn that same playoff pedigree over the years. Quite the opposite. Blame tougher playoff opponents, a risk-averse system, a poor supporting cast that put way too much pressure on the Leafs’ stars, or any other factors — at the end of the day, Marner was not The Guy in Toronto when it mattered.
He’s quickly becoming just that in Vegas, though. The elite puck-moving, scoring chance creation and defensive details in all situations are adding up for Marner. That’s easy enough against Utah and Anaheim, two of the worst defensive teams Marner has ever faced in the postseason. Can he keep up that level against an actual contender? And can he match someone as dominant and clutch as MacKinnon on the other side?
MacKinnon already cooked through the Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes matchups in Round 2, plus the best the Kings had to offer in Round 1. Now it’s up to Marner to not only contain MacKinnon, but also match his playoff heroics.
The bottom line
If the Golden Knights can get healthy, find that next gear and earn some bounces, they could make this a real series. But that may not be enough; the Avalanche aren’t just their toughest opponent yet, they’re a force who can win games in different ways.
Four more wins and the Avalanche will officially be the best in the West. It’s hard to bet against them.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
