Pavel Dorofeyev’s playoff goal burst has him set for a big contract — or an offer sheet – The Athletic

With every game that passes, and every laser of a wrist shot that finds the back of the net, the price keeps rising.

Vegas Golden Knights winger Pavel Dorofeyev picks corners with pinpoint accuracy, and he picked the perfect time for his postseason breakout. The 25-year-old sharpshooter is on an expiring contract, set to become a restricted free agent this summer, and he leads the NHL with nine playoff goals heading into Game 1 of the Western Conference final against the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday.

More than one out of every four shots Dorofeyev has fired this postseason has lit the lamp. The only thing more impressive than the quantity of his goals is their timeliness. He has delivered his best shots in the biggest moments over the first two rounds and has proven that his regular-season scoring prowess translates to the tight-checking nature of playoff hockey.

As we approach what projects to be a massive contract extension, that was one of the only remaining questions about Dorofeyev’s game. As recently as three weeks ago, it was still unanswered.

Heading into Game 4 of Vegas’ first-round series against Utah, Dorofeyev had yet to score an even-strength goal in 12 career playoff games, dating to 2024. He had only one power-play goal in those contests, had struggled to make an impact in other ways and had seen his ice time reduced by two different coaches come playoff time.

Then suddenly it clicked. Dorofyev scored the opening goal of Game 4. He went on to score what appeared to be the overtime winner before it was called back for offside. Then he followed it up with a hat trick in Game 5 — the fourth in Vegas franchise history.

After a quiet start to the second round, he scored five goals in the last three games to help eliminate Anaheim, and in doing so, showed he’s more than just a sniper.

Dorofeyev’s biggest weapon, unquestionably, is his shot. He regularly fools goalies with a deceptive release and can contort his body to rip one-timers from different angles. All of that helps him outscore expectations — this postseason, he leads the field with 4.8 goals scored above expected.

To linemate Ivan Barbashev, Dorofeyev’s accuracy and shot placement are most impressive.

“The spot he picks,” Barbashev quipped. “Every time he scores, it looks like the perfect shot. We’ve seen it in the last two games. The one at home was just a snipe, high-blocker. On the bouncing puck in overtime, too, he just places the puck perfectly.”

Dorofeyev totaled 20 power-play goals during the regular season as the weak-side shooter on Vegas’ vaunted top unit. He isn’t the strongest play-driver, mostly because he doesn’t have the foot speed of most elite scoring wingers, but his efficiency finishing on backdoor shots is exceptional. It’s largely because even when he’s staring at a yawning cage, he rarely shoots the puck in the middle of the net. Instead, he wires shots off the post and in, giving lunging netminders little chance of a desperation save.

Dorofeyev has an excellent 14.8 shooting percentage over 231 career regular-season games, and has scored on 28.1 percent of his shots this postseason.

“He’s just a huge part of our team,” Barbashev said. “What we’ve seen over the last two months, teams are starting to take him away (on the power play), which opens up room for (Mark) Stone, (Jack) Eichel, (Tomas) Hertl, and (Mitch) Marner or (Shea) Theodore up top. He’s just a dangerous player to leave in open ice, and he actually helps in many other different areas.”

In the regular season, no one set Dorofeyev up for all-situations scoring more than Marner, one of the best primary playmakers in the league. So far this postseason, Tomas Hertl, Ivan Barbashev and Eichel all have pitched in. And that’s really maximized his impact so far, because Dorofeyev is not the type of winger who can drive a line on his own, which is important to consider when thinking about a long-term extension that will include a hefty raise.

Take that bouncing puck in overtime that Barbashev highlighted. The goal itself is impressive from Dorofeyev, but so is the setup from Eichel. He gets the attention of all five Ducks skaters and goaltender Lukas Dostál before sending the winger a cross-seam pass. That buys Dorofeyev the time and space to score.

Dorofeyev has, however, shown more ability to create his own offense in this postseason, and last Tuesday’s Game 5 against Anaheim provided a great example. First, he opened the scoring for Vegas with a crucial goal near the end of the first period by stripping Ducks forward Chris Kreider of the puck with a perfectly-timed stick lift, then roofed a wrist shot past Dostal.

Then, in overtime, Dorofeyev crashed the front of the net, found a rebound and batted the bouncing puck out of mid-air into the top shelf to win it for Vegas.

He’s an intuitive player with a knack for finding soft spots in defensive coverage, and continues to add to his toolbox of goal-scoring techniques.

“It seems like he’s beginning to be a high-stakes player, scoring big goals at big times,” coach John Tortorella said. “The puck follows him. I think he’s worked at his play away from the puck, which is imperative this time of year. I just think he has worked at his game, the puck has found him and he has made big plays at key times.”

Those plays could add to what should be a payday this summer.

Dorofeyev was always going to be up for a raise this summer, considering how cost-effective his current two-year, $1.84 million AAV contract is. Add in the fact that 30-plus goal scorers don’t grow on trees, especially in this market, and there’s even more reason to open the checkbook this summer. His postseason only adds more oomph to that. It’s one thing to score at a high clip in the regular season; the playoffs are a different animal, and all 32 teams are always on the hunt for playoff players.

How much is that worth?

His market value, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model, projects to be approximately $10 million next season. On average over the next eight years (the maximum Vegas can extend him for before the new CBA kicks in), that ticks up to $11.6 million. It’s a number that’s out of the Golden Knights’ ballpark without extreme roster maneuvering.

Usually, RFAs sign below market value. But with few available goal-scorers on the market, teams could be tempted to throw an offer sheet Dorofeyev’s way to bring him in, even if it means upping the ask to that $10 million-plus zone. Offer sheets, generally, are empty-calorie threats in the NHL. But maybe this year’s market changes that because 1) outside of Alex Tuch, there aren’t many high-end wingers in free agency this summer, 2) there will be a lot of demand for the few top-sixers on the trade board, and 3) most teams won’t have any hard feelings over putting the Golden Knights in a bind.

Even if the market doesn’t drive up costs any further and Dorofeyev follows most RFA trends by signing below market value, it’s still going to be pretty pricey. A short-term extension, according to Evolving-Hockey, projects to come in around $6.75 million a year for two years; AFP Analytics’ is a shade under that at $6.2 million.

But since this is Dorofeyev’s best chance to cash in, a longer term may be more likely here. AFP Analytics projects a six-year deal worth $8.99 million a year. Evolving-Hockey’s model projects an eight-year extension with an $9.14 million cap hit, or a seven-year deal worth just under $8 million a year with a new team.

That $9 million range would be worth about 8.65 percent of a $104 million salary cap in 2026-27, which is pretty reasonable compared to recent signings for that “second wave” type of player. Year 1 of Nikolaj Ehlers’ deal is worth 8.9 percent of the cap in Carolina, while Dylan Holloway’s will be 7.5 percent next season in St. Louis.

Even if this is the going rate of sorts for this type of player — since Dorofeyev is technically that second wave of offense behind Eichel and Marner in Vegas — there’s always some risk attached to a contract of this caliber. So it helps to project his on-ice value moving forward, by looking at his comps in terms of similarity score.

While no two players are identical and there’s layers of uniqueness to sort through, shared traits at the same age such as physical attributions, scoring, play-driving, defense and other stylistic tendencies can help build a list of player comps, and point toward a range of potential outcomes for a player.

The best-case scenario has Dorofeyev becoming the next William Nylander, Patric Hornqvist or Alex Tuch, and any of those paths would be worth a long-term deal worth $9 million-plus per year. His regular season pointed to those as comps, and his postseason so far is only adding weight to that. But a part of the conversation has to be whether he can level up to that in the long run elsewhere, or if Vegas is that sweet spot for him.

Maybe a team such as the Carolina Hurricanes, who have a ton of substance up and down the lineup, could also maximize the strengths in his game. The New Jersey Devils or Montreal Canadiens probably could, too.

But could a team flush with cap space looking to land a big scorer to be The Guy, like the Chicago Blackhawks or even the Winnipeg Jets, get the current version of Dorofeyev?

If not, maybe that next tier of comps would be in his future: the Nino Niederrieters and Tomas Tatars of the world, who are really solid middle-six utility players but not true top-six wingers. The worst-case scenario has him sinking even lower, following in the footsteps of Tanner Pearson or Andrew Mangiapane. While that caliber outcome seems unlikely — especially as Dorofeyev is crushing it for Vegas this postseason — it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibilities, either, and has to be a part of the thought process.

The Golden Knights have consistently found ways to sign players for below market value, and considering Dorofeyev’s RFA status, it wouldn’t be surprising if they did it again in this situation. They may need to in order to keep him, considering how tight they already are to next year’s $104 million cap.

Vegas already has roughly $92.3 million in salary allocated to the 2026-27 roster, which includes 10 forwards, four defensemen and three goalies under contract. That leaves only approximately $11.7 million to fill out the four remaining spots in the lineup, which is obviously not nearly enough.

Dorofeyev’s projection takes up the vast majority of that space, and the Golden Knights also have pending unrestricted free agent defenseman Rasmus Andersson. They traded a haul for Andersson (Zach Whitecloud, defensive prospect Abram Wiebe, a conditional first-round pick in 2027 and a conditional second-round pick in 2028) in January, so it’s highly unlikely they’ll allow him to hit the free agent market. Evolving-Hockey projects that an eight-year deal for Andersson would carry a $9.65 million AAV, while AFP Analytics projects something around $8.75 million per year over six years. Either way, Andersson will command a sizable contract as well.

Even using low-end projections, he and Dorofeyev will easily account for $16 million per year, and likely more. And that still wouldn’t give Vegas a full roster. It’s obvious the team will need to make several maneuvers to clear cap space this summer, and that’s nothing new for this front office.

It’s either that or they risk losing a young, proven goal-scorer from a roster that needs all of the finishing talent it can get.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, Natural Stat Trick, CapWages and AFP Analytics. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.