The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
Forecasters are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, which comprises the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
There’s roughly a 55% chance the season will be below normal, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season, according to the outlook.
NOAA is forecasting a range of eight to 14 total named storms. The federal weather agency assigns a name to a storm when it officially becomes a tropical storm, when its maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph. Out of those named storms, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (considered Category 3, 4 or 5).
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from mid-August to mid-October.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” Neil Jacobs, NOAA administrator, said during a Thursday news conference. “We have had Category 5’s make landfall in the past during below-average seasons.”
Hurricane season for the Pacific basin started on May 15 and runs until Nov. 30.
According to NOAA, there’s a 70% chance of above-normal activity in the Pacific this season. For the eastern Pacific, the federal weather agency is expecting 15 to 22 named storms, including nine to 14 hurricanes and five to nine major hurricanes. In the central Pacific, NOAA is expecting five to 13 tropical cyclones.
What are the 2026 tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic?
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms. Those include seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Here is the list of 2026 tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic basin:
The first Atlantic storm this year would be named Arthur.
(NOAA)
How could El Niño affect hurricane season this year?
El Niño affects the severity of hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, leading to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic (particularly the Caribbean) and more in the Pacific due to an increase in rising air over the tropical Pacific and sinking air over the tropical Atlantic.
“What’s driving this forecast is largely an El Niño event,” Jacobs said.
However, El Niño’s impact on hurricanes can be somewhat tempered by sea temperatures along the equator — currently they are slightly warmer than usual, which negates some of El Niño’s effects on hurricanes.
What happened last year?
Last year’s hurricane season was the first time in a decade that not a single hurricane struck the U.S., according to NOAA. There were 13 named storms in total, of which five became hurricanes, including four major hurricanes.
Hurricane Erin was the first Category 5 storm of the season and brought storm surge and tropical storm conditions to parts of North Carolina in August.
Hurricane Erin was one of four major hurricanes in 2025.
(Gallo Images via Getty Images)
However, it tracked well off the coast of Florida, and despite bringing wind, tidal flooding, and coastal effects, there were no other impacts from rain or tornadoes.
Hurricane Melissa, the final named storm of the season, was one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, according to NOAA.
While Melissa did not pose a direct threat to the United States, it brought catastrophic flooding across parts of the Caribbean and was responsible for at least 93 deaths.
NOAA had predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season, forecasting a range of 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 were expected to become hurricanes.
