(Bloomberg) — Oil swung between gains and losses as traders assessed the outlook for a peace deal to end the Iran war.
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West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to settle below $97 a barrel, finishing the week down 8.4%. Pakistan’s army chief, the favored interlocutor between Washington and Tehran, arrived in the Iranian capital amid signals of progress in negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and ultimately reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz to energy flows.
It’s unclear whether those talks will result in a deal, leaving the market to sift through another day of conflicting statements on key issues. Renewed threats of escalation in recent weeks have buffeted oil prices as traders try to assess when oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the strait will fully resume.
Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in Hormuz clouded the outlook. US President Donald Trump has vacillated between threatening to resume airstrikes on Iran and saying the countries are closing in on a peace accord.
The war has rattled global markets since Israel and the US attacked Iran in late February, ushering in an energy crunch that has sent oil prices soaring and stoked inflation expectations. The curtailment in supplies from the Persian Gulf has also resulted in global stockpiles of crude oil and products being drawn down at a record pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“Near term, oil futures seem to be pricing in some sort of an agreement as WTI prices pull back below $100/bbl,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “Still, traders are becoming more desensitized to the ongoing negotiation headlines.”
The United Arab Emirates has made a more concerted push to end the war in recent days, while a Qatari negotiating team has also arrived in Iran.
“Should no agreement emerge between the parties to the conflict, and should passage through the Strait of Hormuz therefore remain severely restricted for the time being, stock levels will come under increased scrutiny,” Commerzbank AG analysts including Barbara Lambrecht and Carsten Fritsch wrote in a note.
The International Energy Agency remains ready to free further stockpiles if needed, after a first release in March, Executive Director Fatih Birol said Thursday.
Meanwhile, US consumers are continuing to feel the impact of energy inflation. Gasoline prices stood at $4.55 a gallon as of Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association — the highest ahead of Memorial Day in four years. Consumer sentiment fell to a record low as long-term inflation expectations worsened.
The higher prices are also pushing American oil producers to drill more. The number of rigs in the US shale patch rose by the most in more than four years this week, according to data from Baker Hughes.
–With assistance from Mia Gindis.
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