Where can each team finish in Premier League? Plus: How an extra game could happen – The Athletic

The final round of a season’s Premier League fixtures can often feel a little… underwhelming.

This time, for example, Arsenal secured their first title in 22 years via Manchester City’s 1-1 draw away to Bournemouth on Tuesday, the race for Champions League qualification is (almost) over and two of the three relegation spots had been locked in weeks before we reached Gameweek 38. 

For those who need a refresher, here is how the league table is looking before we bring 2025-26 to a close.

The positions with peril attached are almost all sewn up, with the only real games of note on Sunday coming with Tottenham Hotspur hosting Everton and West Ham United hosting Leeds United — in a fight for 17th place to stay in the division.

Realistically, a point would secure Spurs’ survival, owing to their far superior goal difference. If West Ham do win, their 39 points would be the highest tally for the division’s 18th-placed finishers since Blackpool in 2010-11. 

Only once have a club gone down with more points since the turn of the century; ironically, West Ham themselves in 2002-03 (41 points).

It shows how competitive this Premier League season has been, with little to choose between so many teams. Where previous years have either seen runaway league leaders or a notable selection of sides cut adrift at the bottom, things have remained tighter this time around, with a notably congested mid-table as three points separate eighth-place Chelsea from Fulham in 13th.

The statistical evidence supports this when looking at the standard deviation — denoting the spread of a dataset — of points after 37 games across the past seven seasons. The smaller the standard deviation, the tighter the points are spread across the league. The current campaign has the smallest (15.6 SD) since 2019-20.

That mid-table congestion is particularly striking when looking at the potential league finishes across all teams after the final game of the season.

Based on the 10 remaining fixtures being played on Sunday, we can map out the possible positions and provide the highest or lowest place for each side. Points are the most important, but if necessary, goal difference is also accounted for within the final league standings.

Aside from Arsenal, second-placed City and Manchester United in third, the remaining 17 teams have the opportunity to move at least one place in the table. Many of these shifts are only one or two places, but six clubs could be in one of six potential positions when the full-time whistles blow tomorrow afternoon.

Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland could finish as high as seventh or as low as 12th, while Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham could finish as high as ninth or as low as 14th.

Accounting for the Champions League, Europa League and UEFA Conference League, there are still six teams who are fighting for a European spot of some kind on Sunday — Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland.

Within that, there is a very small possibility of an unprecedented play-off between Liverpool and Bournemouth for the division’s final Champions League spot. Things would have to fall pretty precisely for the event to occur, but both clubs will have been made well aware of the potential for a one-off, winner-takes-all game to decide their European fortunes next season.

Allow The Athletic to explain. Deep breath, here we go.

Going into the final game, Liverpool are fifth, the final Champions League position, on 59 points — three ahead of Bournemouth (56 points). If Arne Slot’s outgoing champions draw or win their home match with Brentford, they are guaranteed fifth spot, whatever Bournemouth’s result is. 

If Liverpool lose and Bournemouth win away to Nottingham Forest, that would put the pair level on 59 points.

In these situations, goal difference is the key factor to decide league position. Liverpool’s goal difference is six ahead of Bournemouth’s, meaning a notable swing would be needed for both sides to finish the season equally.

Goals scored is the next distinguishing factor in the event of a tie, with Liverpool having a five-goal advantage over Bournemouth by this metric. Therefore, Bournemouth would have to win by five goals (5-0, 6-1, 7-2, and so on) to make up that difference if Liverpool were to lose (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, and so on) — which is a significant ask.

If Andoni Iraola’s side did manage that, the two clubs would be locked on points, goal difference and goals scored — meaning head-to-head records would be considered next. 

Iraola’s Bournemouth could face a 39th game against Liverpool (Eddie Keogh/Getty Images)

Given that they both managed a victory each (4-2 to Liverpool at Anfield, 3-2 to Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium), it would then go down to away goals scored in those respective meetings. With the pair getting two each, there is still nothing to choose between them.

That would mean that the only possibility would be a 39th game for the two to fight it out; a play-off in a neutral venue.

Following Aston Villa’s Europa League triumph on Wednesday evening, there is a final permutation to consider. Villa are fourth, but if they were to finish fifth, it would extend the Champions League spots to sixth place in the Premier League, because the additional EPS (European Performance Slot) drops down a place.

And this is a scenario that seems more realistic. A presumably partied-out Villa would have to lose at City in Pep Guardiola’s final game, and Liverpool would need to beat Brentford at Anfield.

That would mean that Bournemouth would only need a single point to guarantee sixth and secure a historic spot in Europe’s top competition, though if they lose at Forest, Brighton can leapfrog them in sixth place due to a better goal difference. Brighton face Manchester United at home on Sunday.

All of this might seem unlikely, but keep an eye on these subplots as the games unfold tomorrow — the final game of the season has a habit of throwing up crazy results.