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Texans are returning to the polls Tuesday to pick their party’s nominees in an array of runoffs, capping one of the liveliest primary seasons in the state’s recent political history.
Several statewide, congressional and legislative contests required an overtime round between the top two finishers in various races after no candidate received a majority of the votes in the March primary.
The most closely watched race will be the GOP runoff between U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, the latter of whom is favored to win after landing an eleventh-hour endorsement from President Donald Trump. Also on the ballot are the Democratic and Republican runoffs to decide who will succeed Paxton as Texas’ attorney general.
Here are three things we’re watching Tuesday.
Marquee Senate race
The bruising Republican primary for U.S. Senate between incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will finally come to an end tonight, after more than $135 million in ad spending and a buzzer-beating endorsement from President Donald Trump.
The two Republicans — neither of whom has ever lost an election — have been locked in a heavyweight bout for over a year. Cornyn, a four-term senator seeking a fifth, beat Paxton in the primary by a narrow margin, but a runoff period was triggered when neither candidate cleared the 50% mark.
In the months since March 3, Trump pledged to endorse swiftly but then kept both campaigns on ice, despite repeated overtures — especially from the Senate Republican establishment, who see Cornyn as the safer (and less expensive) bet in the general election. At the last minute, the president weighed in for Paxton, giving the loyal attorney general his stamp of approval one week before election day.
Cornyn and Paxton have fought bitterly over their records, electability, levels of conservatism, allegiance to Trump and personal character. Cornyn, who calls himself a Reagan Republican, says GOP control of Texas is at stake. Paxton, who has pledged to take a sledgehammer to the Republican establishment, says he is the fighter better aligned with Trump’s Make America Great Again base.
The winner will go on to face Democratic nominee James Talarico, an Austin state representative and fundraising powerhouse.
Texas’ next top lawyer
The race to replace Ken Paxton as attorney general has been expensive and contentious, especially on the GOP side.
Galveston state Sen. Mayes Middleton finished first in the March 3 primary but did not clear 50%, so he is facing U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the runoff. Middleton has put almost $17 million of his own money into pushing his “MAGA Mayes” message, touting his allegiance to President Donald Trump and conservative causes. Middleton and his slate of powerful endorsers, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, have criticized Roy for his tempestuous relationship with Trump and Paxton.
Roy has hit Middleton for his thin legal resume — Middleton is a lawyer, but has worked exclusively for his family oil and gas company, while Roy was a federal prosecutor and first assistant at the attorney general’s office. He’s gotten a surge in funding to get that message out in the homestretch, including $2.75 million from Amarillo billionaire Alex Fairly.
The Texas attorney general’s office has become the engine room for the national effort to push conservative causes through the courts, and the GOP is expected to fiercely protect this seat against any incursions from the Democrats.
Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas nearly won his party’s nomination outright, but fell just short of the 50% threshold. He is facing former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski to determine who will vie for the chance to reclaim the office for the blue team. Each promises to restore the strength of the office’s apolitical functions and use the agency to support Democrats’ litigation aimed at reining in Trump.
A big test for Texas’ hard right
Primaries for a seat on the state’s Railroad Commission, the regulatory state agency that oversees Texas’ oil and gas industry, are typically sleepy affairs.
But this year, the GOP primary has exploded into a million-dollar contest that is testing the limits of the majority party’s far right flank and caused apprehension among some that a victory for the far-right candidate could create an opening for a Democrat to win statewide office.
Former Tarrant County GOP Chair Bo French, who has long made controversial, racist and antisemitic statements, is challenging Commissioner Jim Wright, who is entering election day with endorsements from top GOP officials including Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
French’s campaign has been bankrolled by some of the biggest hardline conservative donors in the state: oil billionaire Tim Dunn, his son Luke Dunn, and Farris Wilk, according to campaign finance reports filed with the state.
Wright, meanwhile, received a massive $500,000 donation from casino magnate Miriam Adelson. Dallas real estate giant Harlan Crow also gave the incumbent $10,000.
French has often come under scrutiny, including from his GOP peers, for his remarks like asking on social media last summer whether Jews or Muslims posed a greater risk to the nation. At a conservative conference this spring, he called for the deportations of 100 million people.
Wright knocked French for campaigning on social issues — like the “Islamification” of Texas — that the commission has no authority over.
Whoever wins will face Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal of Cypress.
