Bold Predictions for Thunder-Spurs Game 7: X-Factors for OKC Without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell

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Bold Predictions for Thunder-Spurs Game 7: X-Factors for OKC Without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell

The matchup that was circled for months had to go the distance.

The Thunder and the Spurs finished the regular season with the two best records across the NBA. Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio grew exponentially while the Thunder continued their reign as the team everyone wanted to beat. The Spurs figured that out in the regular season as they had Oklahoma City’s number with four wins in five tries.

As the two top seeds out West, the prevailing sentiment entering the postseason was that the winner of a potential Western Conference finals matchup between the two top dogs would lead to an NBA title. The Knicks’ dominance in their run through the Eastern Conference changed things a bit, but the Thunder-Spurs series to determine the Western Conference’s NBA Finals representative has lived up to the hype.

San Antonio punched first, then Oklahoma City punched right back to take a 2–1 lead in the series. Then, the two sides alternated wins which has led us to Saturday’s Game 7 where the NBA’s brightest young superstar goes up against newly minted two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in one last meeting for the season. Hopefully, the decider at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is just the conclusion to the first chapter of what’s the NBA’s best new rivalry.

Before tip-off in what’s the most anticipated game of the season, here’s a handful of bold predictions as the Thunder continue to deal with the injury bug, while the Spurs hope they can beat the defending champs just once more this season:

Jared McCain and/or Alex Caruso need to have a big night

Jared McCain scored 23 points in the Thunder’s Game 3 win | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Thunder have dealt without Jalen Williams for most of the playoffs and Ajay Mitchell for most of the Western Conference finals. Williams and Mitchell were both ruled out for Game 7 which brings a need for considerable offense from the complementary pieces around Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Holmgren has largely been neutralized against San Antonio due to Wembanyama’s dominant presence near the paint, but Caruso and McCain have each had big moments over the series to make up for the lack of scoring.

Caruso had his career-best playoff performance in Game 1 with 31 points and eight three-pointers off the bench in the double-overtime loss. In Oklahoma City’s three wins thus far in the series, he’s averaged 18 points and is a necessary piece for the Thunder to have a successful Game 7. McCain is in a similar boat as he’s hit double digits in scoring in each of Oklahoma City’s wins, highlighted by a spectacular 24-point performance in Game 3 and then 20 points in Game 5. He was extremely inefficient in a blowout loss during Game 4 with just four points on 1 for 10 from the field and 0 for 5 from three-point range.

McCain arrived in Oklahoma City by way of Philadelphia at the trade deadline in a lopsided deal that favored the Thunder. He brings lethal three-point shooting with the ability to score at all three levels. When the Thunder are at their best, McCain and Caruso are providing ample scoring to make Gilgeous-Alexander’s life easier. At least one, and ideally both, need to do so once more to bring Oklahoma City back to the NBA Finals.

De’Aaron Fox drops 20 points for his best scoring game of the Western Conference finals

De’Aaron Fox struggled in Games 5 and 6 against the Thunder | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Fox missed the first two games against the Thunder with an ankle sprain after he helped close out the Timberwolves in the second round with a strong series. Fox’s absence to start the Western Conference finals brought some troubling turnover issues as Stephon Castle assumed primary ballhandling duties. Since Fox returned for Game 3, he’s yet to have that big scoring night that he’s capable of. He struggled in Games 5 and 6 with just 13 points combined after a difficult 1-for-9 night shooting in Thursday’s win to force the decider.

He averaged 18.6 points per game over the regular season and San Antonio has largely made up for the lack of scoring production through big moments from Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell. Plus, of course, Wembanyama’s extreme scoring outbursts have made up for any deficiencies more than enough. However, Fox already has four 20-point games over the playoffs and he’s bound for one more as the veteran presence who’s guided the young Spurs as the team has reached new heights.

Victor Wembanyama will have a legacy-defining game in Spurs’ win

Victor Wembanyama has reached even greater heights over the Western Conference finals | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

To no surprise, Wembanyama’s best scoring games have matched up with San Antonio’s wins this series. After the epic 41-point showing in a defining double-overtime Game 1 win, he had 33 points in the Spurs’ Game 4 blowout win and then 28 in Game 6 to keep the season alive.

He’s hit big shot after big shot and defied human logic along the way, so what else can we expect in Game 7 against the defending champs? Wemby’s played like he has something to prove against Gilgeous-Alexander, especially after he watched the MVP trophy presentation ahead of Game 1. He certainly took that personally. The Thunder have been able to limit Wemby at times and he had a rough 4-for-15 showing in Game 5, but even with that, he still hit 20 points.

Even with the defending champs and Gilgeous-Alexander on the other side of the floor, Game 7 on the road is yet another opportunity for Wembanyama to announce himself as the NBA’s biggest superstar. He’s ran with that each time he’s had the chance, which leaves no reason to believe he’ll turtle when the lights are the brightest. Just one game away from the NBA Finals in only his third season, Wemby can find a way to dazzle us once again and topple the league’s powerhouse from its throne in the process.