Photo:
Tommy Land / Eclipse Sportswire
The Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga on Saturday at the modified distance of 1 1/4 miles for the third time while construction of the new Belmont Park is completed.
The Belmont field drew a field of nine for the third leg of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown and includes five of the 3-year-olds from the Kentucky Derby. Golden Tempo, the Derby winner, is the 9-2 morning-line third choice. Renegade finished second in the run for the roses and is listed as the 2-1 favorite. Chief Wallabee was fourth, Commandment was seventh and Emerging Market finished 10th.
Here is the full-field analysis for the Belmont Stakes with the official track morning odds. The Belmont is scheduled as race 13 of 14 with post time set at 7:04 p.m. EDT.
1. Vitruvian Man, 30-1. Vino Rosso – Doug O’Neill / Antonio Fresu – 6: 1-1-2 – $142,345. Vitruvian Man raced at six tracks, with three maiden races in Kentucky. After his lone victory he tried a starter allowance and an optional-claiming allowance to finish his 2-year-old campaign. A new partner bought a share of Vitruvian Man, which led to his third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Since then, he prepared in California and trainer Doug O’Neill does not hesitate to take shots in big races with long shots. Toss.
2. Powershift, 12-1. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 3: 1-1-1 – $81,896. Powershift was an impressive winner on Kentucky Derby day when he used a stalking trip to win by almost three lengths for Repole Stable as an even-money favorite. That undercard race gave Powershift his maiden victory in his third start and followed a sixth-place finish in the Tampa Derby (G3). Toss.
3. Chief Wallabee, 3-1. Constitution – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 1-1-1 – $466,600. Chief Wallabee went to the Kentucky Derby having only three starts, all at Gulfstream Park. He handled all of the Derby pitfalls of bumping and traffic as he closed from 10th position to finish fourth although he was never more than 5 1/2 lengths behind. Use underneath.
4. Renegade, 2-1. Into Mischief – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 6: 2-3-1 – $2,031,500. Renegade missed winning the Kentucky Derby by a neck after a trip that put him toward the back of the 18-horse field, farther behind than he had ever been in his prior five starts. After a half-mile in the Derby, Renegade was more than 12 lengths behind, had to weave his way through traffic, went widest of all turning for home,and got bumped around some more. In a pair of races as a 2-year-old he faced Paladin twice, so this Todd Pletcher runner gained plenty of quality experience that will serve him well in the Belmont Stakes. A mid-pack trip is expected. The one to beat.
5. Ottinho, 20-1. Quality Road – Chad Brown / Dylan Davis – 4: 1-1-2 – $324,700. Ottinho won a nine-furlong maiden at Aqueduct in his second start in December with a front-end trip. In his other three races he raced from behind, and that includes his debut going a mile and a pair of starts on the Derby trail. In the Withers he finished third and in the Blue Grass (G1) he was second. But both times Ottinho was 11 lengths behind the winner of the race. Dylan Davis will take the mount from Flavien Prat. Toss.
6. Growth Equity, 12-1. Nyquist – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 4: 2-2-0 – $187,600. Growth Equity earned a spot in the Belmont Stakes when he won the Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct in May with a stalking trip. He will make his first appearance in the Triple Crown with Manny Franco back on board as Flavien Prat stays on Emerging Market. Live long shot.
7. Commandment, 6-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / John Velazquez – 6: 4-0-0 – $1,017,339. Commandment used stalking trips and was never more than four lengths behind to win four races in a row leading up to the Derby. In the big race, he broke a bit slowly, which put him toward the back of the field in the early going. As the 6-1 fourth choice he had to race wide to improve his position, got jostled for about a furlong of the stretch run and then did not improve to end up seventh. John Velazquez gets on board for the first time. Cannot be ignored.
8. Emerging Market, 6-1. Candy Ride – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 3: 2-0-0 – $618,880. Emerging Market was undefeated in two starts, including the Louisiana Derby (G2), while prepping for the Derby, and that made him the most inexperienced horse in the field. Bettors made him 8-1 on the first Saturday in May, and he broke alertly and settled in the sixth position in the early going. He probably had to exert too much energy to maintain that spot in the big field and was just shy of three lengths behind for most of the race. The pace-pressing trip took its toll and he came up empty in the final stages of the race and ended up 10th, almost eight lengths behind. Look for regular rider Flavien Prat to try to get Emerging Market to relax in the early going. Top pick.
9. Golden Tempo, 9-2. Curlin – Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz – 5: 3-0-2 – $3,433,000. Jose Ortiz gave Golden Tempo a masterful ride in the run for the roses as he had to rally from last with almost 18 lengths to make up while going seven wide turning into the stretch. In his four starts heading into the Derby, Golden Tempo had been in last place each time. It is fair to expect that he will have another trip as a deep closer in the Belmont Stakes. Win contender.
Summary: Since 2000, the Belmont Stakes most often was won by horses who stalked the pace or closed from not too far back, and that includes the last two years at Saratoga. Very few horses won with a front-end trip or from far back with a deep closing move.
That might be the reason Golden Tempo is the morning-line third choice. The Kentucky Derby winner rallied from last, and trainer Cherie DeVaux expects him to be at the back of the field again Saturday. Renegade is the favorite after a trouble-filled trip in the Derby forced him to be farther back than he prefers.
Emerging Market is one of three horses in the field for Chad Brown as he tries to win the Belmont Stakes for the first time. Flavien Prat also is also for a first Belmont win and ends up on Emerging Market. Prat let the inexperienced 3-year-old get too close to the lead in the Derby and he came up empty late in the stretch. Lessons learned for both horse and rider.
Emerging Market was my pick in the Kentucky Derby, but Renegade is certainly the horse to beat now. Even so, I will give this Chad Brown runner with 6-1 morning-line odds another try. Emerging Market is my top pick to win the Belmont Stakes.
