Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup sees Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia battle to make the next phase. Who will qualify for the knockout stage?
The latest edition of the FIFA World Cup is almost here. It takes place in Canada, Mexico and the United States of America between 11 June and 19 July.
Group F should be one of the more hotly-contested sections of the draw. Netherlands get the ball rolling against Japan on 14 June in Arlington, with Sweden facing Tunisia in Guadalupe the same day.
Can the Dutch finally win the trophy for the first time having come close on numerous occasions? We look at the Opta supercomputer’s World Cup predictions to see who in this group is likeliest to go all the way.
World Cup Group F Predictions
- Netherlands are Group F favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 48.2% chance of finishing first.
- Even if they fail to do that, their 88.2% chance of qualifying suggests they’ll advance without too much fuss.
- Japan (76.2%) and Sweden (62.6%) also have a strong likelihood of getting through to the knockout phase, with Tunisia (43.4%) the Group F underdogs.
Netherlands have yet to win the World Cup, having finished runners-up in 1974, 1978 and 2010. However, by winning 54.5% of their matches at the tournament (with 30 victories from 55 games, shootouts excluded), only Brazil (66.7%) and Germany (60.7%) have a stronger win rate.
The Dutch have very strong recent form at the finals too. Excluding penalty shootouts, Netherlands have lost only one of their last 19 World Cup matches, winning 14. Not since 1994 have they lost a group-stage match either. You can see why they are expected to qualify.
Manager Ronald Koeman guided his nation to the semi-finals at Euro 2024. To improve on that, Netherlands will need their all-time top scorer Memphis Depay to deliver. As well as his 55 international goals, the 32-year-old is also the player with the most assists for the Netherlands since the 1978 World Cup (35).
Depay shared the creative burden in qualifying with Cody Gakpo, as they each set up four goals. But he top scored with eight and will be crucial for the Dutch in North America this summer.
Japan will be making their eight consecutive World Cup appearance. Can the class of 2026 improve on what their predecessors achieved?
The nation has never advanced beyond the round of 16 at the World Cup. Indeed, they hold the record for the most matches played without ever reaching the quarter-finals at the tournament (25).
Their experience on and off the pitch should give them a good chance of advancing this year. Hajime Moriyasu becomes the first person to lead Japan at two World Cups. He is their only head coach to record over 100 matches too.
Japan also carry a sizeable attacking threat, with their 54 goals the most of any team in AFC qualifying. They had three players who were involved in at least 10: Takefusa Kubo (four goals and eight assists), Junya Ito (one and 10) and Ayase Ueda (eight and two). If this trio deliver, the Japanese could do well.
Sweden are also World Cup regulars. This is their 13th appearance and they have progressed past the group stage in their previous four.
They did not qualify in 2022, though, and it feels like a miracle they made it this time. too.
Sweden finished fourth in their qualifying group, behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia. They failed to win any of their six matches, qualifying via the European play-off path thanks to their UEFA Nations League ranking.
In Viktor Gyökeres, they do at least have a confident forward in form. His four goals in the play-offs included a hat-trick in the semi-final against Ukraine and an 88th-minute winner against Poland in the final.
Sweden normally start the tournament well, having only lost two of their opening games at their 12 prior World Cups. Graham Potter will need to maintain that form with what should be their easiest test up first this year.
Tunisia will obviously have other ideas about that. Their history does not bode well, though. They have not made it past the first round in any of their six World Cup appearances and have only won three of their 18 matches at the tournament.
What will give them hope will be the ease with which they navigated qualifying. Tunisia won nine of their 10 matches, drawing the other. Even more impressively, they didn’t concede a single goal.
At the other end, Mohamed Ben Romdhane (with four goals) and full-back Ali Abdi (one goal, three assists) were their leading men for goal involvements in qualification. The former was surprisingly omitted from their squad by manager Sabri Lamouchi, a former French international, though.
Tunisia may not have made the knockout phase in 2022, but no team conceded fewer goals than they did in the group stage (one). Their defensive solidity will be required once again.
*All prediction data is accurate as of 3 June 2026.
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