Photo:
Scott Serio / Eclipse Sportswire
The Belmont Stakes 2026, the final jewel of the Triple Crown, runs Saturday evening at Saratoga, where the $2 million classic covers 1 1/4 miles for a third straight year while Belmont Park completes a reconstruction. Post time for the field of nine is 7:04 p.m. EDT.
The morning line frames the race as a Kentucky Derby rematch. Runner-up Renegade, beaten a head by Golden Tempo at Churchill Downs, is the 2-1 favorite for Todd Pletcher. Fourth-place finisher Chief Wallabee is the 3-1 second choice, and Derby winner Golden Tempo sits third at 9-2 for Cherie DeVaux. Commandment and Emerging Market share 6-1 odds, with Vitruvian Man the 30-1 outsider.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:
Matt Shifman
Winner: Emerging Market
On the board: Renegade
Long shot I like: Growth Equity
Analysis: Emerging Market went into the Kentucky Derby with two starts, and his inexperience showed when he proved hard to control and raced too close to the pace. He tired down the stretch as a result. He and his rider should benefit from that experience. Emerging Market was my top pick in the Derby, and I will give him another chance in the Belmont. Key him in the exacta with Renegade, Golden Tempo and Growth Equity.
Ron Flatter
Winner: Commandment
On the board: Renegade
Long shot I like: Growth Equity
Analysis: I will key Commandment, who should get a better ride at Saratoga than he got at Churchill Downs. Growth Equity tops my choices underneath, because he carries long odds as the other Chad, but not the other, other Chad. I will include Renegade and Powershift, figuring the Pletcher barn somehow lands in the trifecta.
Ed DeRosa
Winner: Emerging Market
On the board: Commandment
Long shot I like: Powershift
Analysis: In a year in which no Kentucky Derby prep separated itself as the top stakes, why not a maiden from Tampa Bay Downs to settle the Belmont?
Rowan Ward
Winner: Commandment
On the board: Chief Wallabee
Long shot I like: Powershift
Analysis: Commandment didn’t have a great trip in the Kentucky Derby, between a slower-than-usual start, early traffic in front of him and getting bumped around in upper stretch. A better trip in this smaller field should help him get all the way there, especially after he proved in the Florida Derby (G1) that he doesn’t need a fast pace in front of him to make his run. Chief Wallabee raced far closer to a torrid Derby pace than any of the three horses who finished ahead of him, and he should move forward with a better setup at Saratoga. Among the longer shots, Powershift appeals most; though he lacks experience, there isn’t much speed in the race, and aggressive rider Luis Saez should be an excellent fit.
Mark Midland
Winner: Chief Wallabee
On the board: Emerging Market
Long shot I like: Commandment
Analysis: The Derby pace was hot. I expect a much slower pace here, flipping the results. In the Derby, the top three finishers sat 18th (Golden Tempo), 15th (Renegade) and 16th early. Golden Tempo and Renegade face a tougher time if the pace turns moderate, and a worse one if it goes slow. Emerging Market was sixth early, 2 3/4 lengths off the pace, and Chief Wallabee was 10th, within 5 1/2 lengths of the lead. I’m looking for both to run bigger races and hit the board, possibly the exacta. I’m playing a $5 exacta wheel with the 3 and 8 over the 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8 for $40.
