One of the key takeaways from OTAs is that Kyler Murray is going to win the Minnesota Vikings quarterback competition, if it really was a competition to begin with. It was also apparent that McCarthy’s view of his situation has changed, with a sense of betrayal coming through in his comments with the media.
That being the case, with Kyler Murray being the guy going forward, what should the plan be for J.J. McCarthy?
The choices for McCarthy are clear. Either keep him and let him play out his rookie contract as a backup or trade him. The Vikings don’t really need McCarthy as a backup- they have Carson Wentz- and having McCarthy stew in the locker room for this season and next may not be the best way to help Kyler Murray lead the team.
That leaves the option of trading McCarthy, which isn’t as straightforward.
The key wrinkle in trading McCarthy is trying to maximize his trade value and deciding whether the potential added value is worth it. Here is what I mean:
The Vikings had some inquiries into McCarthy’s availability around the time that they signed Kyler Murray. They may have also got a reading on what team(s) were willing to provide in compensation. My guess is that it was around the level of a fourth-round pick- same as the 49ers traded Trey Lance for to the Cowboys after two seasons. I would think McCarthy might fetch more than that, simply because Lance only had three starts in those two seasons and came from FCS, but McCarthy does have durability concerns that Lance didn’t have. Also, Anthony Richardson didn’t garner much trade interest although he had an eye issue that teams may have concerns about and he is also in the last year of his rookie contract. But for argument’s sake, let’s say McCarthy’s current trade value is a fourth-round pick- same as Lance’s when he was traded.
What would it take to increase that value to a third-round pick? Or a second-round pick?
The first thing the Vikings could do is shop McCarthy and see if that drums up additional interest and potentially a higher offer. The other things that could increase his value are largely outside of the Vikings’ control. For example, an injury could suddenly increase the need for McCarthy’s services and therefore give the Vikings the leverage to demand a third-round and maybe even a second-round pick, although that seems unlikely.
The Vikings could also showcase McCarthy in preseason games to see if that increases his value, but that isn’t guaranteed. There is also a scenario where a team isn’t happy with their backup QB situation now and may be interested in acquiring McCarthy in time for training camp and may value that more than seeing him in preseason first.
What is known is that the trade value for a player decreases as the remaining length of the contract decreases. Teams will pay more for getting McCarthy with two years left on his rookie contract rather than just one, for example, which means unless McCarthy plays during the regular season and plays well, his trade value will likely decline if the Vikings hold on to him until next year. Next year is also supposed to be a great year for quarterbacks in the draft, which won’t help McCarthy’s value next year either.
All of those considerations point to trading McCarthy sooner rather than later.
It’s unclear where new GM Nolan Teasley stands on all of this, but presumably if Kevin O’Connell is comfortable rolling with Kyler Murray as QB1 and with Carson Wentz as the backup, Teasley may go with that and look at McCarthy’s services as redundant. The Seahawks were aggressive at times with trades during Teasley’s tenure there, so he is no stranger to trading a player seemingly too soon but before their trade value decreases.
If the Vikings decide to go that route, it would be the first test for Teasley in trying to create a robust market for McCarthy’s services that could lead to the Vikings getting a Day Two, rather than a Day Three pick as compensation.
Which Teams May Be Interested in Trading for McCarthy?
Teams that are looking at McCarthy strictly as a backup aren’t likely to part with a third-round pick for that purpose. Teams that may pay a third-round pick for the last two years on McCarthy’s rookie contract are those that see McCarthy as a potential starter in time and/or a potential spot starter in the short-term.
The Steelers come to mind in that regard. Aaron Rodgers is 43 and will retire after this season. They have Mason Rudolph (31) and Will Howard on their roster. Adding McCarthy could give them a better spot starter this year if Rodgers is injured and he could win the starting job next year, benefitting from a year learning from the future Hall of Famer. If the Steelers view themselves as a playoff team this year, that means they won’t be in a good position to draft a top quarterback in next year’s draft either. Spending a third-round pick on McCarthy makes a lot of sense in that situation.
The Bucs also makes some sense. Contract talks with Baker Mayfield are not even close according to Mayfield so the Bucs could see McCarthy as a potential starter for them next season rather than give 31-year-old Mayfield the big extension he is seeking. He would likely be the backup to Mayfield this year as well.
There are also the teams that will draft a quarterback high next year like the Cardinals and Jets who could trade for McCarthy as at least a backup, but could give him some starts as well, and be a cheap bridge starter next year if they want to give the new quarterback time to develop. That may or may not be worth a third-round pick to them, but it’s possible.
There are also teams like the Lions, Chargers, and even the Rams who may have interest in McCarthy as a better backup who might be a consideration as a starter down the line in a couple cases, but those teams aren’t likely to offer as high a price.
Downsides of Trading McCarthy
Of course the downside of trading McCarthy is that he becomes the next Tom Brady and has a Super Bowl ring for every finger by the end of his career. More realistically, he could eventually become better than Kyler Murray, although that is unlikely to happen over the next couple years, primarily because he is unlikely to be a starter this year except potentially spot duty. At some point what happens with McCarthy becomes a moot point if it takes him several years to be a high-end starter because it would have been a huge mistake for the Vikings to keep him on the roster that long and waste the prime years of several other top players on the roster.
There is also the chance that Kyler Murray doesn’t work out which would put the Vikings back in the market for a starting quarterback. However, if that were the case, the Vikings would likely cast a wide net that would include several other possibilities besides McCarthy (Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson, maybe Baker Mayfield) and it’s unclear if McCarthy would prove to be the best of the bunch.
There is also the idea that keeping McCarthy would give the Vikings leverage in extension talks with Murray, but that only works if McCarthy was a legitimate option the Vikings would be happy with as starter. That doesn’t seem to be the case now and if McCarthy doesn’t play or doesn’t play well that isn’t going to change. Even so, Murray could have other suitors that would negate any leverage the Vikings may have in contract negotiations.
If J.J. McCarthy doesn’t win the starting job this season, and all signs point to Kyler Murray being named the starter sooner rather than later, I’m not sure what the point is to keeping McCarthy on the roster. Wentz is a decent enough backup with plenty of experience, and McCarthy could end up being a distraction.
There also doesn’t seem to be much upside from a trade value perspective to hanging on to him for another year, except if the Vikings got lucky and an injury forced a team to overpay for his services, like the Vikings were forced to do with Sam Bradford after Teddy Bridgewater went down just before the season opener. If that happened the Vikings might be able to get an early third/late second-round pick or equivalent for McCarthy, with the risk that scenario doesn’t materialize and the Vikings trade him for a late day three pick next year and he becomes a distraction in the locker room this year.
So, if the Vikings were able to shop McCarthy as OTAs wind down and get a late third-round pick or equivalent in next year’s draft (or better), which is realistic, that’s probably the best move under the circumstances.
That may not happen- the Vikings may not get that high an offer for McCarthy. The Steelers and/or Bucs may prioritize signing Mac Jones or Anthony Richardson (or Kyler Murray) next year and not have to trade any draft picks for them. Other teams may only offer a fifth-round pick for McCarthy to upgrade their backup quarterback spot. If that were the case, it may be worth hanging on to McCarthy in the event an injury increases his value.
But my guess is that if the Vikings no longer see McCarthy as a starter before his contract expires after next season, they’d rather trade him sooner rather than later.
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