Holidays to Europe are safe from the threat of flight cancellations this summer as jet fuel supplies have been bolstered – but British travellers still face a headache when they land.
The roll-out of the Entry/Exit System (EES) continues to cause disruption to UK holidaymakers, with queues of up to six hours reported at European airports in destinations including Spain and Italy.
Travellers face paying more despite the delays to their journeys, as fares for flying later this year could rise when airlines’ hedging contracts expire, meaning they will have to pay high market prices for jet fuel as a result of the war in the Middle East.
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The UK’s mild climate may be destroyed
While much of the world is set to grow hotter as a result of the climate crisis, the UK could soon face a different fate.
Climate scientists fear a ‘cold blob’ in the Atlantic Ocean may bring Arctic conditions instead of a tropical future.
Bill McGuire, a professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London (UCL), is one of them.
Here he shares why cold temperatures could be our reality in a few decades.
Why this could happen
At the moment, global heating is making the UK hotter. This warmth is thanks to the presence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of currents over the Atlantic.
- Without these currents, our climate would be more akin to the much colder weather in north-eastern Canada.
- And the AMOC might be set to U-turn.
- One study suggests that the AMOC has weakened by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
- There is not much we can do to stop
this decline. Emissions would need to
be cut in half within five years to have
any chance of dodging a permanent global temperature change.
How to prepare for a change
“All countries need to ensure that infrastructure, food security, services
and public engagement are robust,”
says Professor McGuire.
Caption: Snow falls over in Middleton-in-Teesdale, County Durham. Storm Chandra brought travel disruption and flooding as strong winds and heavy rain hit much of the UK. Picture date: Tuesday January 27, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Owen Humphreys/PA Wire
Photographer: Owen Humphreys
Provider: Owen Humphreys/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA Wire
A train arrives into the station in the town of Glossop in the snowy weather last week. New rail projects planned for the North of England are ‘really exciting,’ the Transport Secretary has said (Photo: Oli SCARFF / AFP via Getty Images)
One paper estimated that only seven per cent of UK land would be suitable for
arable farming in the new climate,
compared with the current 32 per cent. “Managing this looks like rationing and restricted civil liberties,” he claims.
The global impact
Smoke billows from a fire in an area of the Amazon rainforest near Porto Velho, Rondonia State, Brazil (Photo: Bruno Kelly/Reuters)
- It could cause the weakening of the African and Asian monsoons, resulting in famine.
- Increased warming of the southern hemisphere could further dry out the Amazon.
- Increase melting across Antarctica would accelerate sea level rise.
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
What we need to do
This is entirely the result of global heating caused by human activities. It is critical that monitoring of the AMOC is maintained, even increased. European governments really need to be planning for a future that could well be
much colder.
AUTHOR OF THE FATE OF THE WORLD: HOW OUR FUTURE IS WRITTEN IN THE PAST
Snow covering Arlington Row in the Cotswolds village of Bibury. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Our shared ownership home is a disaster
Paul Afshar is struggling to sell his shared ownership flat in Hackney Wick (Photo: Charlie Forgham-Bailey)
Paul Afshar felt a sense of pride when
he purchased 25 per cent of a new home in East London – as a way to get on the property ladder without huge financial backing.
But years on, Afshar has discovered the drawbacks of the scheme, including the rising costs and difficulty moving on.
The background
A 25 per cent of a one-bedroom flat in London.
- In 2007 Afshar put a five per cent deposit (£2,500) on his share of the flat and entered a 35-year mortgage on a standard variable rate.
- Although he only owns a quarter of his flat in Hackney but is eligible for 100 per cent of the maintenance costs.
- Between 2007 and 2024 his mortgage rose 48 per cent from £268.65 to £400.28. He also pays £865.48 on rent (shared ownership requires paying rent to the organisation who owns the rest) and a service charge.
- Fixing unsafe cladding on his block of will also cost in excess
of £50,000, as it isn’t eligible for government funding.
The impact on residents
It has definitely triggered a deep sense of anxiety in me that affected my mental health. It’s this constant heavy, nervous feeling in my stomach.
AFSHAR, 41
Caption: Paul Afshar, campaigner for End Our Cladding Scandal (EOCS). who???s flat in Hackney Wick has been affected by unsafe cladding which means that he is unable to sell the property.
Photographed leaving his flat.
Photographer: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Provider: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Source: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Shared ownership in the UK
Caption: BRENTFORD, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 19: A general view of some of the student accommodation blocks within the Paragon Residential development which have been placed on a mandatory evacuation order, on October 19, 2020 in Brentford, England. Paragon is a development of six apartment blocks owned by one of London’s largest housing associations, Notting Hill Genesis. A recent investigation into the exterior cladding coupled with structural and fire safety issues has led to the association asking residents of the 1059 flats to evacuate while further investigations are made. The estate was developed by Berkeley First, part of The Berkeley Group plc. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Myra Butterworth
Photographer: Leon Neal
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images Europe
Copyright: GETTY IMAGES
- In 2024, 200,000 households were shared ownership properties.
- In 2021-22 there were 19,386 new shared ownership properties.
- Fewer than 2,000 shared ownership households managed to staircase from part to full ownership in 2022.
Big Read
9 min read
Selling up
Afshar couldn’t sell his flat but didn’t feel safe to live in it – because of the cladding. So he lived with his partner for three years, still paying the mortgage and charges.
Caption: Paul Afshar, campaigner for End Our Cladding Scandal (EOCS). who???s flat in Hackney Wick has been affected by unsafe cladding which means that he is unable to sell the property.
General view of the unsafe timber cladding.
Photographer: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Provider: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Source: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Caption: Paul Afshar, campaigner for End Our Cladding Scandal (EOCS). who???s flat in Hackney Wick has been affected by unsafe cladding which means that he is unable to sell the property.
Photographed inside his flat.
Photographer: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Provider: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Source: Charlie Forgham-Bailey
Property expert Crystal Olenbush says selling is the biggest issue. “You’ve got to figure out how to divvy any equity, then you need to find someone to take over the side of the seller’s portion of the mortgage. There’s a whole legal process to transfer that shared ownership stake. If anyone tries to skip steps, it creates huge problems.”
Paul Afshar is struggling to sell his shared ownership flat in Hackney Wick
(Photo: Charlie Forgham-Bailey)
The takeaway
I got into something I didn’t fully understand. I was sold a dream of homeownership and it’s come back to bite me years later. It’s heartbreaking.
Looking back Afshar wishes he’d have looked into the service charge, mortgage rate and selling protocols sooner.
Thinking of getting
a divorce?
It’s not always the solution, says psychotherapist and author Philippa Perry, who has been married for 32 years.
Here are the five things she recommends asking yourself before dishing
out the divorce papers.
The questions you should ask
Is it a you problem?
Couple, talk and arguing with fight at house for disagreement, conflict and divorce discussion. Woman, explain and bored man for conversation, toxic relationship and drama and marriage fail in lounge – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
It’s not a good idea to get divorced when you’re just depressed and stressed. You’re naturally irritated by everything and everybody. It’s too easy to take that out on your partner and think they’re the problem.
OPINION
2 min read
(Photo: Kawee Srital-on/Getty).
Are you telling
yourself a story?
We cherry-pick the evidence against our partner until we’re so set on them being the enemy…
It feels almost like tying up loose ends. But it won’t really solve the problem. It just makes it much worse. It’s okay to be wrong. Good relationships are full of ruptures and repairs.
The questions you should ask
It is a mixmatch of
conflict styles?
- When we’re under stress, we have our preferred way of coping.
- You want a partner who’s on the same page as you, so that you have moments of connection.
- Some people think a lot, other people want to go straight to action.
- If you’re a thinker, and you’re married to a do-er, it’s important to remind them that they don’t have to fix every problem. If you are a doer, you have to say something like, explain your process and thoughts a little more.
Do you believe the
grass is greener?
If this is you, do some serious therapy on yourself. What gets in the way of a good relationship is thinking that the grass is greener and therefore having a lack of commitment. This is why we have marriage because you make a commitment.
PHILIPPA PERRY, AUTHOR OF BEST-SELLING BOOKS ON PARENTING AND RELATIONSHIPS
Do you have moments
of inclusion?
Son’t assume your partner knows how you think (Photo: ljubaphoto/Getty/E+)
- Moments of inclusion are the ones when you both feel like you’ve both clicked, and really get on.
- If these moments are missing, we need to leave more space for them.
- Also treat love as an action, not a feeling. Ask yourself, what can I do for my partner today?
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
FOOD AND DRINK
The UPFs the
health experts eat
In the UK, 50 per cent of our daily energy comes from ultra-processed sources, rather than fresh, minimally processed food.
This has been blamed as one of the reasons for the nation’s poor health and high rates of obesity. While all UPFs get a bad reputation, there are some that are better than others.
We asked the health experts which UPFs they include in their diets.
The UPFs the health experts buy
Sausages
Dietitian Aisling Pigott has sausages once a week, choosing the vegan or high-meat versions.
Orange squash
Priya Tew buys no-added sugar squash to help her children drink more water.
Lentil crisps
Nutritionist Jenna Hope has these as an alternative to regular crisps.
The UPFs the health experts buy
Baked beans
Dr Linia Patel, a dietitian and performance nutritionist, enjoys baked beans. She eats them on a jacket potato with cheese and a side salad as a quick, filling and nutrient dense meal.
Squirts of ketchup up the sugar in his diet (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Caption: Homemade Barbecue Baked Beans in a Black Skillet
Photographer: Dragos Rusu / 500px
Provider: Getty Images/500px
Source: 500px
Ketchup
Gut health nutritionist Yalda Alaoui, who follows a mostly anti-inflammatory diet, has ketchup as small amounts do not impact her blood glucose levels.
Other UPFs that health experts put in their shopping basket
Some people can be concerned about a sugar rush (Photo: Elizabeth Perez Holowaty/Getty)
Haribo sweets for their children
so they can learn to self-regulate with food.
It’s estimated ultra processed foods make up at least half of the average UK diet (Photo: Getty)
Emergency cereal bars when homemade flapjacks run out.
Sriracha chilli sauce on the production line (David McNew/Getty Images)
Hot sauce and mayonnaise
Caption: Oakland, CA – December 02, 2016: Grocery store shelf with jars of Marmite brand Yeast Extract. A by-product of beer brewing, enjoyed at any time on toast for breakfast, in sandwiches at lunchtime; Shutterstock ID 545767972; Purchase Order: –
Photographer: Sheila Fitzgerald
Provider: Shutterstock / Sheila Fitzgerald
Source: Shutterstock
Marmite as a source of vitamin
B12 and potassium.
Photographer: Aleksandr Zubkov
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Almond milk in morning drinks, fortified with vitamin D.
How to find balance
My mantra with UPFs is ‘reduce but not restrict’. I don’t think we need to cut them out but it’s a good idea to assess how much you eat. If some are [things] you especially love, then cutting them out can lead to you craving them more.
Priya Tew, registered dietitian specialising in eating disorders
Senior female friends spending leisure time knitting while sitting at table in retirement home – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
How can people give themselves the best chance of a good retirement?
Are retirees in the UK happy?
What the statistics say
47%
Almost half of studies into the impact of retirement on people’s mental health report a negative impact on life satisfaction.
72%
According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, among those aged 50-59 who have left the workforce, 72 per cent would consider returning to work, often citing a need for financial security and purpose.
Nearly a third (32 per cent) of 50-70 year-olds retired earlier than they hoped.
Volunteering
73-year-old Martin Delgado, who retired from his role as a journalist, enrolled as a volunteer with the NHS 10 years ago.
He attends seminars, goes on training courses and works with psychiatric patients at an NHS mental health trust in London.
(As well as looking after his grandson).
Big Read
9 min read
Martin’s other tips for retirement
Elderly couple taking selfie while hiking together in autumn mountains. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Have hobbies
He often goes on bike rides, hikes, solo camping trips and finds time to read.
Exercise
He runs two or three mornings a week and when it becomes too much is planning to take up swimming or cycling.
Find the best shoes for you (Photo: Xavier Lorenzo/Getty/Moment RF)
Spend time with family
“I spend as much time with our grandson as I can. Having him around has had a huge emotional impact.”
It doesn’t have to be all or nothing
For Toni Del Mar, 75, one of the things that has made her retirement a happy one is spending more spontaneous time with friends in her Devon village.
But she hasn’t given up everything completely. Mar runs her home as a B&B which she cleans and prepares for guests.
It provides her with purpose and help
paying the bills.
If you’re struggling, there’s hope
Retirement was the biggest challenge of my life.
Simon McEwan, who had a 43-year career in journalism, felt lost without structure and routine. He wishes he’d have phased work out slowly.
Now he’s built a new routine including exercise, mindfulness, meditation and joined a mental health walking group.
How to stay connected
- 1Plan in advance – join community groups or take up new hobbies that can bridge the initial gap when work stops.
- 2 Enjoy the arts – creativity can provide a new sense of purpose and organic opportunities for new bonds.
- 3Maximise fulfillment – identify activities that you enjoy, and take time to build up interest.
- 4Balance your activities – mix ones for enjoyment with ones that help others. For example, volunteering at local community groups.
The mistakes parents make at home
Baby-proofing professionals like Al Kola from Baby Safe Steps say there are several mistakes he often sees that are actually more harmful than helpful.
He shares the most common ones.
Accidents in the UK
Unintentional injuries in and around the home are a leading cause of preventable death for children under five years.
67,000
Every year, more than 67,000 children experience an accident in the kitchen, says the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents.
58,000
58,000 children have accidents on the stairs, often where the most serious incidents occur.
The mistakes parents make
The wrong gate
Pressure gates – gates with a bar along the bottom to keep them fixed in place – shouldn’t be on the stairs as the bar is a trip hazard. You can end up flying down the stairs with your baby.
Young Asian mother enjoying family time with her toddler in nature – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
The Cuggle Extending wooden gate failed some of the tests (Photo: Argos)
Not securing furniture
Parents tend to assume that kids won’t do XYZ. For example, we might assume they won’t pull on drawers, but they can, and it’s a threat that can land on them.
What to do
Father with baby on hands standing near window at home. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Don’t leave windows ajar
The window could be pushed open the rest of the way by a toddler of about two years old.
Hide cords
Cameras next to a cot are often on a wire, which means that a child could grab it, take it into their cot and get entangled.
The Government may eventually have to scrap the triple lock (jacquesdurocher/Getty Images/iStockphoto)
Lock cupboards
Lock cupboards where you keep cleaning products, batteries, medicine, glassware and potentially tools.
Other things to note
You don’t need to overprepare. If you put edge protectors everywhere, then that child is not going to know what pain is. When they go anywhere else like nursery and do get hurt because they don’t understand it.
Caption: Mother guiding her young daughter to school up the stairs, symbolizing back to school season and family bonding.
Photographer: FreshSplash
Provider: Getty Images
Source: E+
Asian small toddler child is riding a toy car when he falls on the floor, leading to cries and shouts. The unhappy boy, playing with his toy car in the living room daylight, sheds tears – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
The only baby gate brand Al Kola trusts is Baby Dan. “We use them for a few reasons: firstly, safety, secondly, practicality, and then thirdly, they look good. They are the only brand that currently ticks those boxes for most scenarios.”
As a finance expert that’s made money mistakes in the past, these are the secrets I’ll pass on…
Clare Seal once had £27,000 of credit card debt. Now she’s a financial coach.
Here are the tips she’ll pass onto her daughter.
MONEY
Clare’s story
I want [my daughter] to learn from my mistakes and make smaller, less catastrophic ones.
Over the course of 10 years, Seal amassed debt that equated to her whole pre-tax salary. Some was down to high living costs and a low salary and some from her wedding.
Now she’s paid off her debt, she is teaching her child to avoid this – and be wiser.
Align your career and lifestyle aspirations
I’d like to make sure my daughter knows what sort of salary her chosen profession can command, what sort of hours she might work and where to set her sights when it comes to lifestyle. When there’s a mismatch, it can lead to frustration, resentment and debt if you try to make up the shortfall with credit.
CLARE SEAL, AUTHOR OF FIVE STEPS TO FINANCIAL WELLBEING
Young woman making a payment with a credit card – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
The money tips I’ll pass on
Caption: A married couple sitting in silence, looking in opposite directions. The image captures the concept of female loneliness within a marriage, emotional disconnection, and relationship problems. Symbolizes quiet desperation and isolation at home
Photographer: Galina Zhigalova
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Keep a ‘freedom fund’
This is specifically designed as an escape hatch from a difficult situation, like a horrible partner or bad boss.
Start investing
Investing even just a
tiny amount of pay
could help to grow real financial security.
Rent control has proved a controversial topic in the UK, but is used more widely across the world (Photo: Getty)
(Photo: Tang Ming Tung/Getty).
Always negotiate
For women additional benefits like a generous pension, paid leave and health insurance, can make a huge difference.
The money tips I’ll pass on
Liking yourself is your armour
“I could not tell you how much I have spent over the years, trying to ‘fix’ the parts of myself that society told me were not good enough,” says Seal.
Friendships can be hugely rewarding but like any relationship you have to nurture them (Photo: Halfpoint Images/Getty/Moment RF)
Caption: A young girl plays sits on a wooden bench beside a long radiator and a sunny window. She gazes out through the glass. The room is homely and comfortable. Conceptual with space for copy.
Photographer: Catherine Falls Commercial
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Have an enjoyment allowance
A pot of money for guilt-free spending is a good idea. If you start young enough, spending on your lifestyle and saving for your future don’t have to be mutually exclusive.
Use credit wisely
- I want to teach her how easy
credit makes it easy to hide your own spending from yourself. - I hope she understands that there
is always a price to pay. - I don’t want her to be scared of credit though because that’s a recipe for misuse and shame.
- I want her to know how to use it well and what the red flags are.
LIFESTYLE
4 min read
Summer is approaching, and so are the insects
Are we getting more flies in the UK?
With warmer, wetter winters and longer summers, flies are likely to breed quicker and survive for longer. We’re likely to see more in the future.
James Logan, professor of medical entomology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says we could see more bugs as warmer temperatures create an ideal environment for breeding.
How to deter flies
Clear out leftovers
Flies love leftover food, especially if it’s sugary or decaying. Food should be covered or in airtight containers, and leftovers cleared away immediately after eating.
A man pours a glass of water from a chrome tap at a kitchen sink – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Clean your sink
Particles of food found in the sink or drains after washing up will attract flies so keep them clean and clear. Keeping windows closed will also help.
At-home remedies to try
Try vinegar
Mixing apple cider vinegar with a spoonful of sugar and washing up liquid attracts flies – they then drown in the liquid.
Lemon with cloves
Cut a lemon in half and stick in some cloves. It’ll create a strong combination of smells that repel flies.
If you’re looking for a way to boost your health and wellbeing, you likely already have a goldmine in your store cupboard (Photo: Yulia-Images/Getty)
Herbs
Placing mint, rosemary and basil around windows and kitchens can keep flies at bay.
Techniques to use
Keep windows closed
Have windows ajar not wide open and use fans as the airflow makes it hard for flies to land.
Take time to rest (Photo: Counter/Getty/Digital Vision/Nicolas Hudak)
One example of this is the Intelligent Street Lighting project being trialled by Glasgow City Council. It uses an algorithm to process real time sensor data on noise, air pollution and footfall around the city and control street lighting in reaction to people’s use of cycle paths and open spaces.
(Richard Baker via Getty Images)
Use warm lights, if any
While flies are attracted to blue light, they are repelled by warm tones so try to get yellow or orange-toned lights.
Check your drains
Remove any organic matter that could be a food source, and clean them using boiling
water and vinegar.
Water companies are allowed to spill sewage so long as their plants are overwhelmed (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty)
Look at your bins
Leftover and decaying food is a playground for flies
Caption: A resident walks past uncollected bin bags piled up on Poplar Road in Birmingham, central England, on April 15, 2025. Residents are desperately trying to get rid of an estimated 17,000 tonnes of trash that has piled up since refuse workers ramped up a strike last month. Four weeks in, the city council has declared a “major incident,” the prime minister has had to defend the government’s response in parliament, and residents say their problems are worsening by the day. (Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP) (Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: PAUL ELLIS
Provider: AFP via Getty Images
Source: AFP
Copyright: AFP or licensors
Keep your compost bin as far from the
house as possible, use a wheelie bin liner and keep the lids sealed, says pest control expert Jonathon Nicholls.
LIFESTYLE
2 min read
Hedging is used by airlines to lock in the price of future fuel purchases and protect themselves from global shocks to supply, such as the Strait of Hormuz closure sparked by the Iran war.
Ryanair has hedged 80 per cent of its jet fuel requirements until April 2027, whereas easyJet is 53 per cent hedged for winter 2026/27 and 29 per cent for next summer.
Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said soaring fuel prices tend to impact low-cost carriers such as Ryanair, Wizz Air and easyJet more than the likes of IAG, British Airways’ owner, as fuel accounts for a larger share of their cost bases.
Budget airlines’ business models also rely heavily on offering low fares to customers, which limits their ability to pass higher fuel costs on through ticket prices, he told The i Paper.
At the moment, prices for flights vary – data from airline price comparison site Kayak showed in October, the month when the next half-term holiday arrives, the average price of a return flight to Athens costs £251, up 27 per cent year-on-year.
But prices to popular Spanish resorts showed a small reduction, with Alicante costing on average £170 – down 2 per cent from October, 2025, and a return flight to Barcelona averaging £134, a 1 per cent fall year-on-year.
But Spain is among countries worst hit by lengthy EES biometrics checks, which are required for all non-EU citizens travelling across Europe.
Andrew Harrison-Chinn, chief marketing officer of travel benefits platform Dragonpass, said passengers were seeing regular delays of two to three hours, rising up to six hours at peak times such as Monday mornings or Saturday at midday.
Bottlenecks were typically occurring at smaller airports lacking the necessary infrastructure, he said, such as Palma de Mallorca, Alicante and Lanzarote.
Rachel Pennycook, Europe travel specialist at tour operator The Luxury Holiday Company, said peak travel periods such as weekends and school holidays, were likely to see longer processing times from EES.
Her company has seen an increased interest in other modes of travel that allow passengers to avoid airports, with a 31 per cent increase in demand for rail and cruise trips, she said.
Roger Tilbury, 78, from Bedford, was surprised he and his wife had to re-register for EES in Sardinia on Tuesday as they had done so around two months ago.
He told The i Paper: “Despite having a stick and being led to the front of the queue with another lady who couldn’t walk easily it still took at least 30 minutes to get through.
“About nine people went ahead of us and it was about three to four minutes per person.
Passport was handed over, and examined for a minute at least, then a photo, wait, fingerprints, more wait, then allowed through. Nothing stamped.”
There were no chairs so some disabled people were getting “quite distressed” at having to stand, he added.
“We told the guy that we’d done all this in Spain two months earlier, but he said it made no difference. So much for EU-integrated,” he said.
Airlines have been offering cheaper flights to some destinations in Europe but there have been warnings that the jet fuel crisis will lead to price rises and cancellations (Photo: Stefano Rellandini/AFP)
The EU’s transport chief Apostolos Tzitzikostas has reassured holidaymakers that Europe is not facing a jet fuel shortage in the next few months because the EU has emergency stocks of fuel to draw on in the event of shortages from the Middle East, which accounts for about 20 per cent of the continent’s jet fuel imports.
But continued disruption to Middle Eastern supplies would lead to a “very difficult” situation later this year, including impacting ticket prices and potential cancellations if supplies reach “dangerously low” levels, experts have warned.
“It’s critical that the war stops and that the Strait of Hormuz opens and this needs to happen as soon as possible. For the time being, there is a certain degree of stability,” Tzitzikostas said.
Airlines are reporting that they are well covered over the summer, with jet fuel prices more of an issue in the near term than its availability, Chiekrie said.
“Further out, the picture is a bit more uncertain. While airlines generally have a large portion of their winter fuel costs hedged, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies and further push prices higher.
“Given airline profitability is highly seasonal, its already lower-profit winter flights that may become uneconomic to run, leading to capacity cuts. We view short and medium-haul flights as most exposed to this scenario, given they tend to have less protection from more resilient premium demand.”
This could hit holidaymakers who are booking their holidays later in the year, to avoid any summer stress.
Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of Advantage Travel Partnership, the UK’s largest network of independent travel agents, said holidaymakers were leaving it much later to book this year as result of the Iran crisis.
“People are wanting to travel, they’re just waiting until later,” she said. “Typically, right now we’re seeing 40 per cent of everything our members are selling is to travel within the next 10 to 12 weeks. You do get late sales at this time of year, but that’s pretty high.”
Amaar Khan and Oliver Thompson, jet fuel analysts at Argus Media, said if the Strait of Hormuz does not open by September, European jet fuel supply could be threatened later this year.
Stocks would fall to “dangerously low” levels if there was no end to the conflict, with about 32 per cent of pre-conflict levels anticipated across Europe by the end of summer, they predicted.
“Airlines have not said much about the situation after summer, so it is currently unclear whether further demand destruction – flight cancellation, higher ticket prices – will occur,” they said.
“But the market broadly agrees that supply will still be tight.”
John Grant, an aviation analyst, pointed to alternative supplies of jet fuel from producers like Norway and Nigeria as the reason that there was no sign of shortages in Europe.
“It’s expensive, don’t get me wrong, but if airlines are prepared to pay for it, and they are, at today’s rates, and passengers are prepared to pay the increase in the fare – as they are – then the market is working,” he said.
Airlines have lowered prices on some holiday packages in order to attract passengers spooked by the Iran crisis, with cheaper deals available for flights to popular European holiday hotspots than at the same time last year.
But Grant warned: “They won’t hold into the summer holidays. Those prices will go up.”
