After an inexplicable loss on the road to previously winless UCLA, the Penn State Nittany Lions look to rebound at home on Saturday against the Northwestern Wildcats.
Oddsmakers don’t expect a close game between Penn State and Northwestern, as the spread sits at 21.5 points, in favor of the Nittany Lions.
The over/under for this Big Ten battle ranges from 47.5 and 48.5 points, depending on which of the best PA sportsbooks you use.
Find our expert Northwestern vs. Penn State predictions, picks, and best bets for the upcoming college football Week 7 slate below.
Northwestern vs. Penn State Predictions and best bets
- Northwestern +22.5: -115 at FanDuel
- Over 47.5 points: -115 at BetMGM
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Northwestern +22.5
Last week seemed like the perfect opportunity for the Nittany Lions to bounce back against UCLA after their narrow home loss to now-No. 3 Oregon.
Obviously, that did not happen, as Penn State dropped its second consecutive game, dashing its College Football Playoff hopes and jeopardizing head coach James Franklin’s future in University Park.
Now, Penn State hosts a run-heavy Northwestern squad that could complicate matters with its ground game.
Through the first half of the regular season, the Wildcats have the 19th-highest run grade (PFF) and 11th-highest run block grade in the country.
Conversely, Penn State has allowed 199 rushing yards per game to opponents over its past three outings.
The Nittany Lions just aren’t as good as most experts and fans thought they were going to be.
This is a problematic matchup, considering their biggest weakness (run defense) can be exploited by Northwestern’s strength on the ground.
In fact, UCLA ranked 93rd in the country in rushing yards per game before its game against Penn State, despite a weak schedule to that point. Yikes.
I expect Penn State to stack the box and force Northwestern QB Preston Stone to throw the ball against its talented secondary (ninth-best coverage grade, per PFF), but I can still see the Wildcats finding enough success on the ground to keep this game close.
Over 47.5 points
Penn State’s defense is not as stout as it has been over the past few seasons. Look no further than last week, when the Nittany Lions gave up 42 points to a mediocre UCLA offense.
As a result, the Nittany Lions have been playing in higher-scoring games, boasting a 4-1 over record in 2025.
That trend should continue this weekend when Stone and the Wildcats come to town. They have been playing much better football since their 20-point Week 1 loss to Tulane, when Stone had four turnovers.
Since then, Stone has tossed seven touchdowns to two interceptions, both of which came against an elite Oregon team.
Northwestern vs. Penn State moneyline odds analysis
Why Penn State could win as the favorite
Best odds: -1600 at DraftKings
Penn State failed to turn the page after its home loss to Oregon, which resulted in taking UCLA too lightly the following week. The rest is history.
The Nittany Lions allowed a UCLA team that was 0-4 with losses to Northwestern, New Mexico, and UNLV to put up 42 points.
Still, the Nittany Lions have more talent at almost every position and are playing at home, where they have won 16 of their past 19 games.
Further, Penn State has an elite secondary and can afford to stack the box against a run-heavy team like Northwestern.
Stone is susceptible to turnovers against top-notch talent, and he will face that this weekend against Penn State’s secondary.
Why Northwestern could win as the underdog
Best odds: +1050 at Caesars
Penn State is falling apart.
The Nittany Lions have dropped their past two games, including a road game to UCLA, arguably the worst team in the Big Ten.
At some point, the Nittany Lions are likely to rebound to a respectable level, as they have plenty of talent between Drew Allar and their running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
However, if that rebound doesn’t happen this week, Northwestern could keep this game close, especially since the Wildcats are a talented and physical team on the ground and Penn State struggles to defend the run.
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