Last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Emeka Egbuka was named the Offensive Rookie of the Month for September. He then went out and rocked Seattle, catching seven passes (on seven targets, no less) for 163 yards and a touchdown in Tampa’s 38-35 win. At the moment, that game is the ninth-best wide receiver game for a rookie by DYAR in our database, which goes back to 1978. Opponent adjustments will continue to happen throughout the season, so that placement isn’t final, but it’s been a hell of a start for the rookie. He’s the 13th rookie in NFL history to have more than 400 receiving yards in the first five weeks of a season, a list which has him in some very rarified air.
Egbuka’s start has been so strong that he’s become the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, with odds dropping to as low as -125 on some sites. Barring injury, the general consensus is that he’ll be lifting the hardware at the end of the year.
It’s a bit early for that, of course. Sometimes, your September Rookie of the Month does go on to win the season-long award: Jayden Daniels in 2024, C.J. Stroud in 2023, Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 and so forth – a hot start at a bare minimum means you’re likely to have volume over players who only get into the lineup later. But Garrett Wilson was behind Chris Olave in 2022, Justin Herbert behind James Robinson in 2020 and Kyler Murray behind Gardner Minshew, of all people, in 2019. There’s still two-thirds of the season left, and lot of games to be played.
With that in mind, let’s dive into StatsHub to check in with the offensive rookies and see how they’re doing. Let’s see who Egbuka needs to hold off to maintain his current spot on top of the heap.
Quarterbacks
2025 Rookie Quarterbacks, Week 1-5
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
DYAR
DVOA
Jaxson Dart
NYG
39/60
313
3
2
5
18
-0.1%
Cam Ward
TEN
85/169
879
2
3
19
-329
-40.9%
Jaxson Dart‘s numbers come with two asterisks. First, this was written before Thursday’s game against the Eagles. Secondly, due to a data error, the Saints-Giants game wasn’t included when we ran DVOA for Week 5. Yes, even computers could hardly bring themselves to care about Saints-Giants; that will be fixed shortly and you’ll be able to check out Dart’s updated numbers yourself on StatsHub.
That’s too bad, because Dart had the best game of his young career in the Giants’ upset of the Eagles last night. He had already been a weapon as a rusher – with the win over Philly, he became one of three quarterbacks ever to have 50-plus rushing yards in each of his three starts, joining Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. He needed his passing to step up to be an actual contender, and he lived up to that on Thursday night – not a huge volume night, but highly efficient with a couple big time throws, supplemented by his rushing. To no surprise, his odds dropped from +600 to +350 (at time of writing), but he’ll need to do it again in a non-trap game/TNF scenario to really contend. The Giants can’t be in the cellar if Dart wants a shot.
Traditional success isn’t really a prerequisite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year as a quarterback. Justin Herbert was 6-9 as a starter. Kyler Murray was 5-10-1. Dennis Shaw, in 1970, was 3-8-1 (and also absorbed 41 sacks and fumbled 10 times, so perhaps that wasn’t the most-deserved award in NFL history). That being said, there’s looking well on a below-average team, and then there’s the rock-bottom situation the Giants and Titans find themselves in. New York’s season is already essentially over, and while the Titans probably bought Brian Callahan a few more weeks when they took advantage of Arizona falling all over themselves, they hardly seem likely to be contending deep into the season. These are going to be major handicaps for an awards campaign, especially if Egbuka’s Buccaneers continue to win while being pass-happy.
Ward ranks 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in both DYAR and DVOA, saved from the bottom spot by opponent adjustments which lifts him over Joe Flacco. His Week 1 performance was bad enough that it’s still really tanking his numbers (-143 DYAR, -93.2% DVOA) but he’s yet to have a day above a -21.4% passing DVOA, so it’s hard to say he’s been too hard done by. He’s yet to have a really good day in the NFL, though he was more than respectable for a rookie against the Rams and Cardinals – his fourth quarter against Arizona featured some tight-window throws and some bombs to Calvin Ridley that at least flashed the potential Tennessee hoped for when they picked him first overall. His +2200 odds are more “hey, he’s the number one pick, and maybe he’ll do better at some point!” rather than anything he’s done on the field so far.
The other notable name not listed there is Dillon Gabriel, who hasn’t played enough to qualify for our leaderboard but had a 22.1% DVOA in his debut against Minnesota. If he can keep that up, he can work his way into the conversation at some point, but one game does not a ROTY campaign make.
Running Backs
It’s wort nothing that Egbuka has been on the field more than any of these running backs, so he has the edge in terms of being a more important part of the offense so far. That matters, as being the receiver a team turns to in the clutch is more important than being part of a backfield rotation, and while there isn’t a “value” component to OROY, role in an offense and sheer volume both do help your case. That being said, my favorite offensive rookie of 2025 so far is Bill.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt got his first official start last week, but he was getting 15-25 snaps a game before that, too. Finally taking over the starting role from Chris Rodriguez Jr., JCM is the most explosive back on Washington’s roster by far. He had 100 yards on outside runs alone against the Chargers, as he’s proven very difficult to bring down once he picks up a head of steam. He leads all qualified running backs with 6.6 yards per carry, though some of that is not being asked to do too much short-yardage power stuff yet, and his 33.2% rush DVOA and 72% success rate lead all rushers, not just rookies. Some of that is sample size, and I couldn’t vote for him for rookie of the year today just because he hasn’t played as much. But as long as he doesn’t see too much of a drop-off in quality as he continues to earn more and more work? I mean, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he takes this at the end of the year. At the very least, his +3000 odds seem much tastier than Egubka’s -110 at this point!
Skattebo’s performance has been better than his advanced rushing numbers would indicate – 47.6% of his carries have come against a stacked box because what else do the Giants have to offer, skill-position wise, at the moment? His gaudy receiving total, however, is mostly a factor of being used as a checkdown guy over and over again for a rookie quarterback. He looks like he’s going to be the volume king for rookies at running back, and getting trusted with that much workload is certainly a plus so far. And, of course, he nearly rushed for 100 yards last night – remember, Giants numbers don’t include the last two weeks yet. If more opportunities like last night happen, Skattebo’s odds will improve, but you’d think Dart would be ahead of him on the pecking order.
FOXBOROUGH, MA – SEPTEMBER 07: Ashton Jeanty #2 of the Las Vegas Raiders waits in the backfield during a game between the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders on September 7, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
Poor Ashton Jeanty can’t get any room to run. He’s getting just 1.2 yards before contact, and that’s after Las Vegas’ offensive line had an above-average game last week. He’s fourth with 271 win yards – yards after a broken or missed tackle – because he has to force a miss nearly every time he touches the ball to avoid going down in the backfield. He’ll need better blocking to seriously challenge for this award. At least he’s been doing better than fellow first-round rookie Omarion Hampton, now out for at least a month with an ankle injury. Quinshon Judkins deserves to be mentioned as well, coming on strong after his (dropped) offseason battery charge meant he didn’t actually sign with the Browns until just before the season began – second in rushing DYAR for rookies behind Croskey-Merritt, though it would be nice if he earned some sort of role in the passing game at some point.
Receivers and Tight Ends
To save space, we’ve only listed players who are in the top 10 in receiving yards, or qualify for our leaderboards with a positive DYAR, or were drafted in the first round.
Yup, Egbuka laps the field in terms of receiving DYAR, which shouldn’t come as a massive surprise. His lead in receiving yards isn’t quite as big, but he’s in the top 10 among all wide receivers, not just rookies, in DYAR (142), DVOA (36.3%), yards per route run (2.7), yards per target (11.7), yards per reception (17.8), yards after the catch (147), explosive catches (9), explosive yards (316) and created catches (4). Yes, we’re looking at this right after he had a huge game and so it’s the best possible time to be looking at this from his point of view, but the numbers kind of speak for themselves at this point. If we had to pick nits – and we do, that’s our job – he’s got a couple drops so far, and his 83.3% adjusted catch rate (receptions on catchable targets) is the worst for any wideout in the top 10 in DYAR. He also draws a lot of contested targets, which is a double-edged sword – there’s trust in him to win those battles, but he many not be getting as much separation as one would hope. These are minor dings in what has been a fantastic resume so far – there’s a reason he’s your favorite at the moment.
Egbuka also gets the benefit of playing with Baker Mayfield, which helps. Tetairoa McMillan has been fairly impressive this season as well, but his efficiency numbers aren’t so hot because he’s the top target in the Carolina Panthers offense. I don’t think his numbers would be quite as good as Egbuka’s if you swapped their situations, but I’m also not convinced he’s actually played that much worse considering the circumstances around him. They’d both be starting for my All-Rookie team if I had to pick it today, and then I’d have to pick which late-round surprise I’d prefer, Elic Ayomanor or Tory Horton. Either way, they’d be beside Tyler Warren at tight end, who’s shown that he probably should have been the first tight end off the board during Indianapolis’ hot start.
As for the other three first-round rookies? Matthew Golden has the fourth-highest success rate in the league, which is more a function of usage than anything else but is nice to see; he’s been mostly anonymous so far in Green Bay’s offense. Travis Hunter finally flashed as a wideout against Kansas City – he had 27 DYAR on Monday and -43 in the four weeks leading up to that. Jacksonville finally started using him on some deep routes, and that might be something to monitor going forward. And then there’s Colston Loveland, who missed Week 4 with a hip, Week 5 with a bye, most of Week 3 after getting banged up, and had just three targets in Weeks 1 and 2. Hopefully, he can get on track now that he’s healthy once more.
One Last Name
No stats table here, because he’s an offensive lineman. And not much hope here, because he’s an offensive lineman for the 0-5 New York Jets. But Armand Membou deserves at least a mention, allowing just a 7.4% pressure rate while blocking for a quarterback who, shall we say, likes to hold the ball a wee bit too long. He had a phenomenal game in Week 1 against the Steelers and while he (and the rest of the Jets, for that matter) hasn’t quite lived up that standard since then, he’s still been one of the few bright spots on a terrible team. An offensive lineman has never won this award, and Membou won’t be the first, but someone will write his name down in third place, nod to themselves, and move on.
