Tropical depression or Tropical Storm Melissa likely to form in Caribbean as Invest 98L starts to organize
The National Hurricane Center has again increased development odds for Invest 98L swirling across the Windward Islands, and forecasters say the system could become our next tropical depression or Tropical Storm Melissa in the coming days as it enters the Caribbean.
MIAMI – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has again increased development odds for Invest 98L swirling across the Windward Islands, and forecasters say the system could become our next tropical depression or Tropical Storm Melissa in the coming days as it enters the Caribbean.
The term “invest” is used by the NHC to identify weather disturbances it is investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. Additionally, the designation allows the NHC to run special hurricane computer forecast models on the system.
HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER
This graphic shows information on Invest 98L.
(FOX Weather)
According to the NHC, recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate Invest 98L is currently crossing the Windward Islands, but it is still lacking a closed circulation.
However, both radar and satellite images have indicated that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave is now starting to show signs of organization.
Invest 98L is moving quickly to the west between 20 and 25 mph, which the NHC says could limit development over the next day or two.
DOWNLOAD THE FREE FOX WEATHER APP
This satellite image shows Invest 98L in the Atlantic on Oct. 19, 2025.
(NOAA)
However, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development as Invest 98L slows down over the Caribbean by the middle of the week.
“One set of predictions calls for the system to strengthen into Tropical Storm or even Hurricane Melissa and quickly move to the north or northeast toward the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and/or the nearby islands,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “Another set of predictions keeps the system weak and calls for it to flounder around in the Caribbean for days – maybe well into next week or beyond.”
The NHC said a tropical depression is now likely to form by the middle or end of this week in the central Caribbean.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are expected to continue across portions of the Windward and Leeward islands through Monday morning.
If Invest 98L becomes Tropical Storm or Hurricane Melissa, it will be the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
