In the crucial final days before voting ends on California’s redistricting ballot measure, the Republican-backed campaigns opposing Proposition 50 are just about out of cash to spend.
Together, the two main ‘No’ campaigns have about $2.3 million in the bank — not nearly enough to fund the kind of statewide ad blitz typically seen to turn out voters during the final campaign stretch. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ‘Yes’ campaign has $37 million on-hand, according to campaign finance filings.
“The ‘Yes’ campaign has overwhelmed the ‘No’ side,” said Brandon Castillo, a veteran ballot measure strategist who is not working on Prop 50. “They’ve flooded the zone with advertising and successfully turned this into a candidate race and a referendum against Donald Trump.”
In deep-blue California, opponents would have had to convince a number of independent and middle-road Democrats to vote against the measure in order to defeat it.
“Given the reality of California’s voter registration, the ‘No’ side would have had a tough time if equally matched. Faced with a lopsided fundraising disadvantage, they’ve been dead in the water for weeks,” Castillo said.
Television ad buys during the final two weeks paint a picture of the strength of each side: According to tracking firm AdImpact, Prop. 50 supporters have spent more than $78 million on advertisements, with another $10 million reserved for the final two weeks.
Opponents’ spending dropped off dramatically earlier this month. They will spend just $9,000 during the final stretch.
The opposition campaigns have raised a combined $44 million, most of which came from Republican megadonor Charles Munger Jr., who also funded the original ballot measures that birthed California’s independent redistricting commission.
But Munger hasn’t put any new money into the campaign since late September, raising questions about whether he sees defeating Prop. 50 as a lost cause. Munger declined to comment. Amy Thoma Tan, his campaign’s spokesperson, said it’s “full speed ahead until the end!”
Castillo said Munger is “probably wise enough to not throw good money after bad.”
The other ‘No’ campaign, led by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has raised about $11 million, far short of the $100 million the Bakersfield Republican had pledged to raise.
Republican members of Congress and Trump allies are frustrated by the weak showing, according to a Friday CNN report. Adviser Ellie Hockenbury said, “our campaign is focused on raising every dollar needed to stop Gavin Newsom’s partisan gerrymander.”
Meanwhile, Newsom’s campaign has raised more than $114 million and spent more than $80 million.
The ‘Yes’ side is “not taking anything for granted nor taking our foot off the gas,” said spokesperson Hannah Milgrom, adding that Prop. 50 is a way “to hold this dangerous and reckless president accountable.”
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Nicole Nixon
The Sacramento Bee
Nicole Nixon covers California politics for The Sacramento Bee’s Capitol Bureau. Previously, she spent nearly a decade reporting for public radio stations in Sacramento and her hometown of Salt Lake City.
