Early voting data so far show that Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are entering the final weekend in a slightly stronger position than Harris had at the same point last year.
In New York, Andrew Cuomo may have a stronger position going into the final stretch of the campaign, but signs of activity among younger voters – a key part of Mamdani’s base – are emerging.
CNN experts analyzed early voting data from three locations, comparing them with 2024 data in New Jersey and Virginia to better reflect changes in voting patterns over the past four years.
While the analysis of early voting may provide clues about which candidates may have a strong footing going into November 4, it is not yet possible to say for certain who voters supported or how candidates will perform on Election Day, when the majority of ballots will be cast.
New Jersey
In this state, the Democratic Party is showing higher turnout than Republicans in both mail-in voting and early in-person voting, placing the Democratic candidate for governor, U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill, in a stronger position relative to Harris at this stage last year. Harris had won the state by about a six-point margin then.
By the end of Thursday, registered Democrats were ahead of Republicans in returning mail ballots by more than 41 points, surpassing last year’s pace by a few points. At the same time, Democrats had nearly a two-point advantage in early in-person voting, which did not exist last year at the analogous stage.
Mail ballots now account for a larger share of early voting activity. As a result, Democrats represent a larger share of the overall early electoral base than at this stage in 2024.
Among registered Democrats, the group led by the New York City mayor – older voters are currently voting more actively than during the previous primary, when younger voters helped Mamdani win. However, the electorate remains younger than in previous city elections, and over the course of the week it is getting younger.
According to CNN as of October 31, about 53% of registered Democrats (55% of all voters) were over 50, while about 16% of Democrats were ages 18–29 (15% of all voters).
This indicates a greater tilt toward older voters compared with the overall share of Democrats during previous primaries, where about 48% were over 50 and about 18% were 18–29, according to L2.
Polls show younger voters largely support Mamdani, while Cuomo, running as an independent, has less of an edge among older voters.
This year’s turnout remains younger than in the most recent city elections in 2021.
Over the week, daily turnout among Democrats grew younger: on the first day of early voting, older voters outpaced younger by about 50 percentage points, but by the seventh day the gap narrowed to under 20 points.
The geographic distribution of Democratic votes was also more favorable to Cuomo than during the June primary: turnout was strongest where he performed best, and Mamdani’s districts were comparatively weaker. The districts most favorable to Cuomo delivered 125% of their previous early primary results, while the most favorable Mamdani districts delivered about 85% of their prior votes.
Going forward, if Mamdani’s votes against Cuomo in the primary stayed the same, changes in geographic distribution alone would not be enough for Cuomo to surpass Mamdani among Democrats.
New York
Although New York voters are not registered by party, the geographic distribution of ballots already visible suggests that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in a slightly stronger position heading into the final stretch than Harris was at the same point last year when she won Virginia by less than six points.
The geographic distribution of in-person voting tilts slightly toward Republicans, while mail ballot distribution remains similar to last year: they account for a higher share of early voting (24%), compared with the previous year (21%), which adds a more Democratic hue to total early voting compared with 2024.
By Thursday, districts where Trump won last year generally are at 61% of their in-person votes from the same point last year, while districts where Harris won are a little over 57%.
The gap between the Trump-won district and the Harris-won district narrowed over the last week: this was driven in part by opening more polling places in large Democratic-leaning areas such as Arlington and Fairfax.
Virginia
Although Virginia voters are not registered by party, early data indicate that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger has a barely discernible edge heading into the final stretch compared with Harris at the same point last year, when Harris won the state.
The geographic distribution of in-person ballots tilts slightly toward Republicans, but mail ballots retain the Democratic advantage in activity. This year they account for about 24% of early voting compared with 21% at the same point last year, which strengthens the overall Democratic share of votes compared with 2024.
By Thursday, districts where Trump won last year typically gather 61% of their in-person votes from last year’s level, while districts where Harris won are a little over 57%.
Another point – the gap between districts with Trump and Harris advantages narrowed over the last week from 10 to 4 points, partly due to opening more polling places in large Democratic-leaning districts such as Arlington and Fairfax.
Despite early signals, the final result on November 4 will depend on votes cast on Election Day and on how dynamics shift in key districts.
