Even with dispensation, a look at the map shows Putin may have to take a circuitous route. Ukraine is out of the question, and probably Poland too because of Warsaw’s icy relations with Moscow.
Perhaps the most direct route goes via the eastern coast of the Black Sea and Turkey, through Bulgaria and either Serbia or Romania into Hungary.
Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vucic, knows Putin well and Air Serbia has direct flights to Moscow over EU airspace. Serbia is a candidate to join the EU but is not a member.
It is the EU countries, Bulgaria or perhaps Romania, that would need to give consent, and they would have to escort Putin’s plane through their airspace.
Romania has what is set to become the biggest Nato base in Europe, and Bulgaria is also building a Nato base as part of efforts to shore up the defensive alliance’s eastern flank.
A spokesperson in Bucharest told the BBC the issues were only subjects of speculation at the moment and that “Romania has not received a request for overflight from the Russian Federation to date”.
The BBC has also approached Bulgaria‘s foreign ministry for comment.
If Putin wants to play it even more safely, he could fly via Turkey, around the south coast of Greece and then up through Montenegrin airspace before going over Serbia. But it is a far longer route.
