On Saturday, the BYU football team hits the road for arguably the biggest game in program history. For a program with as much tradition as BYU’s, there have been plenty of meaning games, but there has never been a top 10 matchup. That opportunity combined with the spotlight that will be on this game make it undoubtedly one of the five biggest games in program history, and it has the case to be number one.
Texas Tech, coming off a road win at Kansas State, is heavily favored in this game according to oddsmakers. As of Tuesday evening, Iowa State is a 10.5-point favorite.
Depending on the model, advanced analytics either agree or disagree with oddsmakers. Some are more bullish on BYU’s chances than others.
BCFToys gives BYU a 28.8% chance to beat Texas Tech with a projected final score of 26.5-18.3 in favor of the Red Raiders. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 16th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 20 nationally and an offensive ranking of 23rd nationally.
Texas Tech ranks ranks 8th nationally with an offensive ranking of 45th and a defensive rating of 1st.
If BYU is going to pull off this upset, it will need to be a low-scoring game. Tech’s defense simply does not allow many points. They rank in the top five in pretty much every advanced defensive metric. They have no obvious weaknesses for BYU to exploit.
SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Texas Tech.
SP+ gives BYU a 27% chance to win with an expected final score of 31-22. BYU ranks 16th in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 16th and 6th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense has been climbing the ranks – the BYU is up to 25th nationally after starting the season in the 40’s.
Texas Tech ranks 4th in SP+. The Red Raiders are ranked 9th on offense, 8th on defense, and 80th on special teams. If there is one area where BYU has a clear advantage according to FPI, it would be in the third phase of the game: special teams.
Perhaps this could be the game where a special teams play makes the difference for BYU.
FPI is slightly more bullish on BYU’s chances. FPI gives BYU a 39% chance to win.
CFB Graphs gives BYU a 39.6% chance to beat Texas Tech with a projected final score of 21-27.
BYU is going to have to manufacture success on early downs against the Red Raiders. They rank first nationally in defensive EPA on early downs. And once they get you in third-down situations, they are hard to beat as well. They rank 12th nationally in 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed.
On defense, BYU has to force Behren Morton to beat them with his arm. Morton is capable of committing turnover-worthy plays. When he does, the BYU defense will need to capitalize on his mistakes. Forcing field goals is another area where BYU’s defense will need to excel in this game. If there is one area where Texas Tech has not been elite this season, it is in points per quality drive. The Red Raiders rank 66th in points per quality drive.
If BYU can force a few field goals instead of touchdowns, that will give BYU’s offense the chance to go out and win this game.
