Ferocious fight back into game doomed by more poor special teams: numbers for the morning after

📸 : RMNB

The Washington Capitals battled back from a 3-0 deficit to tie Thursday night’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Unfortunately, from there, they couldn’t take the lead or get the game to overtime, falling by a 5-3 final score.

I know, you know, they know, everybody knows what was at fault for this loss. Again.

• I actually really liked the majority of five-on-five play for the Capitals, especially considering this was their second game in as many days against a rested Penguins team. The first period was obviously their worst, but they controlled play from early on in the second until the end of the game. The five-on-five expected goals ended 2.55-2.03 in favor of the Capitals.
• Elephant in the room time: the power play and penalty kill are straight up terrible. There’s no sugarcoating, no “bad luck,” none of that. After going 0-for-3 on the power play, the Capitals sit 26th in the league, converting on just 15.2 percent of their chances. After allowing the Penguins to go 3-for-5 on their power play, the Capitals’ penalty kill is now 24th best in the league, killing off just 72.7 percent of opposing chances. Both units need to change.
• Let’s take a different look at how that’s affecting the team’s record. At five-on-five this season, the Capitals have only played three games where they’ve recorded less than 50 percent of the expected goals. They’ve still managed to win two of those games, yet they have an overall record of 7-6-1. Teams obviously don’t win every single game they dominate at even strength, but the only team seeing more of the five-on-five expected goals than the Caps (57.6 percent) this year, the Colorado Avalanche (61 percent), are 8-1-5 and have the most standings points (21) in the NHL.

Ovechkin splits:
1st 300 goals took 473 games.
Goals 301-600 took 517 games.
Goals 601-900 took 514 games.
Unreal. #NHL

— Jason Gregor (@JasonGregor) November 6, 2025

• Charlie Lindgren also wasn’t great in this game. He made 26 saves on the 30 shots he faced, saving, according to MoneyPuck, 0.06 fewer goals than expected. Not the worst result in the world there, but the third Penguins goal was just really tough to see go in. He’s doing a good job of not having a terrible night where he’s the only reason the team loses, but he’s also not pushing them towards wins either.
• I think the Capitals need to figure something different out with that Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael, and Tom Wilson line. It’s not working. With Protas on the ice five-on-five in the loss, the Caps saw negative differentials in shot attempts (-11), scoring chances (-5), and high-danger chances (-4). I’m not sure if the answer is to trade for a center so McMichael can move back to the wing. That all depends on how severe Pierre-Luc Dubois’s injury actually is.
• Alex Ovechkin looked really good and very dynamic, in my opinion, for the first time this season. Outside of his two assists, he also recorded three shots, 10 shot attempts, five individual scoring chances, two individual high-danger chances, and six hits. With him on the ice five-on-five, the Capitals were up 24-11 in shot attempts, 15-7 in shots on goal, 3-0 in goals, 16-5 in scoring chances, and 8-2 in high-danger chances. His line, also featuring Dylan Strome and Anthony Beauvillier, was excellent.

Numbers thanks to Hockey-Reference, NaturalStatTrick, and HockeyStatCards.