Michigan has one storm system crossing our state tonight, and then December-like cold will trigger areas of heavy lake-effect snow.
What we call the “system snow” is still expected to move across the southern third of Lower Michigan tonight and Sunday morning.
Here is the radar forecast, showing the various areas of snow through the weekend.
Radar forecast from 8 p.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Tuesday.NOAA
The National Weather Services offices have informative forecast graphics this morning, covering their particular area.
Tonight’s storm system isn’t what we would call heavy snow in January, but for early November a few inches of snow is noteworthy.
Southeast Lower all has a good chance for at least 2″ of snow, but to 5″ by Monday evening in the Thumb. Hi-resolution models continue to show a circular area of heavy lake-effect snow coming off Saginaw Bay and swinging through the Thumb Sunday night and Monday.
Chance of 2″ or more of snow tonight through Monday.NOAA
After the system snow ends Sunday morning in southeast Michigan, the snows become lake-effect snows. The lake-effect snows dump heavy snow on smaller, distinct areas.
The first area of heavy lake-effect snow is the snow to fall in the very southwest corner of Lower Michigan, northern Indiana and the Chicagoland area at the south end of Lake Michigan. A winter storm watch is in effect for this area, starting Sunday afternoon and continuing until Monday evening.
Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Berrien and Cass Counties in Michigan, northern Indiana and Chicago.NOAA
Heavy lake-effect snow will develop Sunday afternoon and continue until the middle of Monday night. A north wind means Berrien and Cass Counties in Michigan and a large part of northern Indiana should have 6″-12″ of snow by Monday night.
Total snowfall forecast for the heavy lake-effect snow over the corner of southwest Lower Michigan, northern Indiana and Chicago.NOAA
For Northern Lower Michigan there are no winter weather advisories or watches in effect as of 9 a.m. today, Saturday, but I anticipate advisories being added.
The graphic below shows where the heaviest snow will likely fall in the Traverse City area and Grand Traverse region. The wind will blow from the north. This keeps the heaviest snow in Leelanau County, the west side of Traverse City, Benzie and Manistee Counties. There is a 40 percent chance of 6″ or more of snow in Leelanau County and parts of Benzie and Grand Traverse Coutnies. Otherwise look for 2″-4″ around the rest of the Traverse City area.
Lake-effect snow chances for northern Lower Michigan.NOAA
The Upper Peninsula will get into widespread lake-effect snow tonight, lasting through Monday. Since it’s a north wind, the lake-effect snowbands are going to blow south across much of the U.P. The heaviest snow, up to 10 inches by Monday evening, will fall around the Marquette and Munising areas.
Heavy lake-effect snow expected across the Upper Peninsula by the time to snow ends late Monday.NOAA
When we put all of these snow areas together, we get a total snowfall map that shows the five areas of snow- southeast Lower, the Thumb, southwest Lower, the Traverse City area and the Upper Peninsula.
Total snowfall forecast by the end of the snowy period late Monday night.NOAA
Road temperatures are above freezing today through Sunday morning, so snow will melt on the roads. By Sunday afternoon it will turn colder just as the lake-effect snow picks up in intensity. Monday morning will likely have some snow covered roads.
The middle of Lower Michigan will just have spurts of snow flurries and less than 1″ of snow.
Keep checking back at MLive.com/weather for updates on this first snowy period.
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