In the short term close attention would be paid to any further incidents in Azerbaijan, said David Kaminski, air transport editor at specialist news service Flight Global.
Azerbaijan, an oil-rich former Soviet republic, is a small but strategically important country bordering Russia, Iran, Armenia and Georgia.
If the country were drawn into the conflict that could leave airlines facing “a huge airspace equivalent of a brick wall from Saudi Arabia to northern Russia,” said Kaminski. “The disruption would be vast.”
If the conflict is resolved in the near term Gulf airlines would aim to rebuild their business on the current model, but if it were to persist, it could lead to a more permanent restructuring.
The Gulf airlines’ current business model, which has transformed cities in the region into tourist destinations, might not survive a prolonged conflict, he suggested.
“Etihad, Qatar, Emirates are using those cities as connection points from Europe. You go to Dubai or Abu Dhabi and take a connecting flight to Asia.
“They market it: you don’t have to fly 15 hours to Asia non-stop – come to Dubai for a few days, have a good time, go shopping, then get a connecting flight.”
If the disruption were to continue, it was likely that other nearby cities like Riyadh or Istanbul, which already has plans to expand its airport to nine runways, might try to capitalise, he added.
