EAGAN, Minn. — It feels like eons ago now, but in September, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah set the table for the Minnesota Vikings’ season. He was describing the team he and coach Kevin O’Connell had assembled.
They added a dash of physicality, revamping both interiors. The goal? To be able to fight in a number of different ways.
Yet that vision sits in stark contrast with the current reality.
The 2025 team is not built to play from behind. To do that, you have to have a consistent dropback passing game. Right now, the Vikings don’t.
O’Connell hasn’t explicitly stated this, but the film seems to suggest that the Vikings want to limit second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy from having to make big-time throws into traffic over the middle of the field. It’s a sensible approach, but one that requires an elite level of early-down efficiency.
That’s why a greater reliance on the run game is so important. It’s also why the five false starts Sunday in first-and-10 situations against the Baltimore Ravens were so painful.
Because the Vikings found themselves in suboptimal downs and distances, and because the Ravens snatched the lead early in the third quarter, the Vikings found themselves in the wrong game script, again having to come from behind. The team’s prospects on Sunday hinged on McCarthy.
On Monday, O’Connell praised the competitive fire of his quarterback. He complimented his playmaking in those situations. But he was also honest.
“How the circumstances of the game play out — many of which we directly led ourselves into — you’ve got to play the game to try to win,” O’Connell said. “That doesn’t always … fit hand in hand with where you’d like the game to be for the ascension of (McCarthy’s) development.”
O’Connell maintains that this is normal. That most young quarterbacks need their surroundings to be controlled and crafted to help them grow. That most young quarterbacks cannot be relied on to lift their team from the depths when they’ve only made four NFL starts.
And his point is valid. Anybody making a definitive call on McCarthy’s trajectory is missing the boat on the sample necessary to make those kinds of judgments. Patience is warranted.
But at the same time, rigorous evaluations are paramount. The Vikings brass is in its fourth season, and it has yet to win a playoff game. Ownership, meanwhile, presides over a team that has won just two playoff games in 15 years.
In other words, the franchise urgently needs to know where it stands at the sport’s most important position. Zeroing in on where McCarthy is in his journey over the next seven (or more) games is an integral data point to the moves that must be made going forward.
McCarthy, to this point, is a mobile quarterback capable of high-end flashes along with head-scratching misses. He will do things like drop a beautiful go-ball to receiver Jalen Nailor, like he did Sunday during the team’s first drive. Yet later, he will sail passes toward the sideline that force receivers like Justin Jefferson to mimic the Jordan Brand “jumpman” logo in an attempt to haul in the pass.
Statistically, it’s a hodgepodge that gibes with the eye test. His big-time-throw rate ranks fourth in the NFL among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. His turnover-worthy play rate ranks 38th. McCarthy is only completing 53.7 percent of his passes, but he also has the highest depth of target (10.9 yards per pass) among the 40.
How do McCarthy’s numbers compare to those of first-time starters in previous seasons? Here’s a snapshot:
Player
Big-time throw%
TO-worthy%
On-target%
6.7%
5.5%
38.7%
3.7%
1.8%
76.6%
9.0%
1.7%
67.0%
3.7%
3.5%
76.2%
3.2%
3.3%
73.3%
3.5%
1.5%
78.2%
3.9%
2.6%
72.4%
3.3%
3.7%
74.1%
2.0%
2.5%
77.0%
5.9%
3.4%
62.3%
The most jarring metric relates to the inaccuracies that have surfaced in the second halves of games. Some of them seem tied to wonky footwork. There are other times, though, when McCarthy has trouble fitting the ball into windows because he’s attempting to get it there in a direct line, rather than with an arc.
On one pass, McCarthy uses perfect touch. On his next, he fires a 104 mph fastball. He overrotates and misses receiver Jordan Addison on an out-breaking route toward the left sideline, then he throws a perfect ball over the middle to Jefferson in the red zone that looks like it should be caught. His subtle pocket movements can evade pressure, but he also tends to climb too far up in the pocket and lunge to throw off his front foot.
These are just a few of the many coaching points.
“It’s the subtle climb, and then coming to balance,” O’Connell said. “Instead of two or three climbs, and then all of a sudden, that push or the blocked shot comes into play. I think it’s all normal.”
To go back to the original point, the Vikings’ passing game has been designed to ensure McCarthy gets rid of the ball quickly. They’ve called multiple screens to receivers and running backs. Most of McCarthy’s reads ask him to look for one player, angled toward the sideline.
There are some full-field progressions that McCarthy has handled well. Take, for example, an 18-yard, over-the-middle strike to Nailor on the team’s second possession Sunday. McCarthy faked a screen to running back Aaron Jones, eyed tight end T.J. Hockenson leaking up the sideline and reset to Nailor with congestion in the pocket.
Yet even that positive play wasn’t perfect. Had McCarthy stayed with the Hockenson read a tick longer, he could’ve hit the tight end for a bigger chunk.
“Obviously, with some of the unique things coverage-wise with Justin, it can’t always be just the simple proposition,” O’Connell said. “Sometimes, it’s going to require (McCarthy) saying no to something, which, hopefully by design, we’ve put eligibles in his vision or checkdowns in place so he can see balls go through the net.”
The more time McCarthy spends on the field, the more synced he should be with the timing of plays. The more experience he gains, the calmer he should look at the line of scrimmage.
Any persistence of these problems over the next seven games will factor into the Vikings’ decisions regarding the rest of their quarterback room in 2026. The level of insurance will affect the cost, and the cost will, in turn, impact potential additions elsewhere. That’s how the Vikings arrived here in the first place.
