Airfares are creeping up again as oil prices surge and uncertainty spreads across global energy markets. That leaves many travelers facing a familiar dilemma: book now before prices rise further, or wait and hope fares come down.
I’m currently facing that exact dilemma.
Like many travelers, I’ve been watching airfare prices closely as oil prices spike amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. If Iran follows through on threats to mine the Strait of Hormuz, energy markets could become even more volatile, which would almost certainly push airfares higher. Fuel is one of the largest costs airlines face, and when oil prices surge, ticket prices usually follow. If oil remains elevated or climbs further, the relatively reasonable fares we are seeing today may not last long.
Which brings me to my current problem.
My Upcoming Travel Plans
I have two trips coming up that I need to finalize.
The first is a spring trip to Switzerland and Denmark that I was hoping to book using points. The second is a summer trip to Germany with my family.
Right now, economy fares for the Germany trip are hovering around $800 roundtrip per person. That’s not an amazing deal historically, but in the current environment it strikes me as reasonable.
Ordinarily I would try to book this sort of trip with miles. In recent months I’ve had good luck redeeming points through SAS EuroBonus. But award availability is unpredictable and finding space can be time-consuming. Even with tools like Seats.Aero, searching for the right flights, dates, and combinations of airlines can become a time sink.
What worries me is that airfare pricing could change quickly if fuel prices remain elevated. If oil stays 70% or more above last year’s levels, it’s not hard to imagine these $800 fares turning into $1,200 fares within weeks, or even days.
Airlines have already begun quietly raising fares and adding fuel surcharges in some markets. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates, that trend could accelerate. In that scenario, locking in a ticket now might look very smart in hindsight.
Why I’m Tempted To Just Pay Cash
There’s another reason I’m tempted to just book the flights now.
If I do purchase these tickets, it would give me an opportunity to review SWISS and Austrian Airlines in economy class. I tend to review premium cabins more often, but economy products are what most travelers actually fly. And frankly, my kids do not need to fly in business class. All they really care about is having a screen.
Still, I hesitate.
The biggest drawback of booking cheap economy tickets is the lack of flexibility. Points bookings tend to be far more forgiving. If plans change, it is often easy to cancel or redeposit miles with minimal penalties.
Cash fares, especially the cheaper ones like the “basic economy” tickets I am looking at, are often highly restricted. And right now the world feels even more unpredictable than usual. Between geopolitical tensions, rising inflation, and uncertainty across global markets, committing thousands of dollars to non-refundable airfare feels a little uncomfortable.
Still, I’m leaning toward booking the flights.
Spending $2,400 for three tickets isn’t ideal, but it may prove far better than paying $3,600 or more later if fuel prices continue to surge. At the same time, I still find myself refreshing award search tools, hoping that some attractive redemption option appears before I pull the trigger. It has consumed a fair amount of my time this week…
CONCLUSION
For many travelers right now, the question is simple but frustrating: book now or wait?
With oil prices rising and geopolitical tensions mounting, airfare could climb significantly in the months ahead. At the same time, committing to restrictive cash fares in an uncertain world isn’t particularly appealing either.
Like many of you, I find myself stuck between those two choices.
Would you book now or wait and hope for better fares or award space?
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