As the Canadian men’s soccer team gears up for the World Cup, here’s how things stand in qualifying

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With World Cup qualifying winding down and Canada preparing to co-host the planet’s most popular sporting event in less than seven months, the men’s national soccer team plays its final match of the year tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET against Venezuela in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

This is Canada’s second friendly against a South American opponent in six days. Last Thursday night in Toronto, the 28th-ranked Canadians held No. 23 Ecuador to a scoreless draw despite playing shorthanded for nearly the entire match after Ali Ahmed received a red card in the sixth minute.

Tonight’s game against 50th-ranked Venezuela was somewhat in doubt amid the threat of a U.S. military attack on Venezuela, but the teams will indeed square off for the first time since Canada defeated La Vinotinto on penalties in the 2024 Copa America quarterfinals.

English-born defender Alfie Jones is expected to make his debut for Canada tonight. The towering 28-year-old centre back, who plays for Middlesbrough in the second tier of England’s pro soccer system, was recruited to switch nationalities by head coach Jesse Marsch on the recommendation of winger Liam Millar, who played with Jones at Hull City. Jones, whose only connection to his new country was through an Alberta-born grandmother who moved back to England as a teenager, set foot in Canada for the first time last week with the intention of playing against Ecuador, but a delay in his citizenship ceremony prevented him from suiting up.

Jones’ arrival will help shore up a Canadian defence corps that’s been decimated by injuries. Moise Bombito is out until February with a broken tibia, Samuel Adekugbe is recovering from a torn Achilles, Alistair Johnson will miss at least three months after surgery to repair a torn hamstring, and Luc de Fougerolles is sidelined with a sports hernia.

Davies remains out

Plus, of course, star captain Alphonso Davies remains out due to the torn ACL he suffered last March at the CONCACAF Nations League Finals in Los Angeles. But there was at least some good news on that front this week as Davies returned to training with Bayern Munich. Head coach Vincent Kompany said Davies could be back in the lineup at some point in December, beating his expected recovery timeline by a few weeks.

After tonight’s match, the Canadian men won’t assemble again until late March, when they have the opportunity to play two friendlies during the next FIFA international window. Nothing has been scheduled as of yet.

Another big date on Canada’s calendar is Dec. 5. That’s when the World Cup draw will take place in Washington, D.C.

As one of the co-hosts along with the United States and Mexico, Canada has the privilege of knowing it will play on June 12 in Toronto (the first men’s World Cup game ever on Canadian soil) and June 18 and 24 in Vancouver. The draw will reveal everyone’s opponents for the group stage, though at that time six spots in the expanded 48-team tournament will still be up for grabs, to be determined by the final round of playoffs in late March. 

As of this morning, 34 countries had secured their ticket to the World Cup. Here’s the breakdown by region:

• Europe (7 of 16 spots clinched): England, France, Croatia, Portugal, Germany, Netherlands, Norway.
• Africa (9/9): Algeria, Cape Verde, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia.
• Asia (8/8): Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea.
• South America (6/6): Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay.
• North America, Central America and Caribbean (3/6): Canada, United States, Mexico.
• Oceania (1/1): New Zealand.
• Inter-confederation playoffs (0/2)

That leaves 14 spots available at the moment, and eight of them will be decided today.

Five of the nine openings belonging to Europe will be filled this afternoon as the first round of the UEFA qualifying tournament wraps up with a bunch of matches that kicked off at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Advance directly

To advance directly to the World Cup, a team must win in its group (as England, France, Croatia, Portugal, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands have already done and five more teams hope to do today). The 12 runners-up will join four other European teams to battle for the final four spots in a playoff in late March. The 16 teams there will be divided into four “paths” where you must win two straight elimination games to reach the World Cup.

Four-time World Cup champion Italy, currently ranked ninth in the world, will have to go through the playoff gauntlet after finishing second to No. 29 Norway in their group. Top-ranked Spain and No. 8 Belgium are among the teams looking to sew up a World Cup berth today. They lead their respective groups heading into their closing matches at home against Turkey and Liechtenstein, respectively.

Meanwhile, the three remaining World Cup spots devoted to North and Central America and the Caribbean will be decided tonight as the CONCACAF confederation concludes its qualifying tournament. Mexico, the United States and Canada — the top three teams in the region — did not take part because hosting the World Cup gets you an automatic invitation to the big dance.

CONCACAF’s other direct berths will go to the winners of the three groups in the final round of qualifying, while the two best second-place teams advance to the inter-confederation playoffs in late March. There, six teams from different parts of the world will fight for two World Cup spots. Bolivia, Congo, New Caledonia and Iraq are already in.

Heading into tonight’s matches, tiny Suriname (population: ~630,000) and even tinier Curaçao (population: ~156,000) lead their groups and can clinch their first-ever World Cup berths.

Curaçao visits second-place Jamaica for all the marbles — a win or draw sends Curaçao to the World Cup, while a loss gives the spot to the Jamaicans. Suriname is tied in points with second-place Panama but holds the superior goal differential by three. So a win by Suriname at Guatemala should get them into the World Cup unless Panama blows out El Salvador at home by a much wider margin.

Honduras and Haiti are tied for the points lead in the other group as they face Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. Costa Rica, two points behind, can still leapfrog both leaders with a win and a Haiti loss.

In all three groups, the second-place finisher will hope its point total and goal differential are enough to get them into the inter-confederation playoffs.