Editor’s note: Every week, Josh Kendall and Chad Graff rank and analyze all 32 teams from first to worst.
Last week, we gave you the good news. But our power rankings have to look at the other side of the coin in Week 15.
That means examining the worst-case scenario for all 32 teams. We’re leaning heavily this week on The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, which you should definitely check out as the season draws to a close.
1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3)
Last week: 2
Sunday: Beat Cardinals 45-17
Worst-case scenario: The back issue comes back
Father Time and the back problems that complicated Matthew Stafford’s training camp appear to be the only things that can stop this offense. The Rams had 530 yards Sunday, and Stafford became the fourth quarterback to have seven or more games in one season with at least three touchdowns and no interceptions. Since Week 10, Los Angeles leads the league with 34 points per game.
Up next: vs. Lions, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
NFL team tiers through Week 14. pic.twitter.com/RgWIoqBYbx
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) December 8, 2025
2. New England Patriots (11-2)
Last week: 1
Sunday: Bye
Worst-case scenario: It’s all just the schedule
The Patriots have only beaten three teams with a winning record. They only have one such team — the Bills this week — left on their schedule. It’s why New England is only 14th in DVOA despite being in line for the top seed in the AFC. MVP candidate Drake Maye has only faced one top-10 defense based on expected points added, according to TruMedia.
Up next: vs. Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
3. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
Last week: 4
Sunday: Beat Falcons 37-9
Worst-case scenario: Another Sam Darnold swoon
Darnold might still be the quarterback in Minnesota if his regular-season finale and playoff start didn’t look like this: minus-0.44 EPA per dropback, 53.1 percent completion rate and 21 percent off-target throw rate. So far in Seattle, though, he is surviving the winter. Although Darnold had another interception Sunday and now leads the league with 16 turnovers, he also had three touchdowns, and he’s ninth in the league in EPA per dropback (0.14).
Up next: vs. Colts, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
4. Denver Broncos (11-2)
Last week: 3
Sunday: Beat Raiders 24-17
Worst-case scenario: Betting on the Broncos to cover Sunday
Think Raiders coach Pete Carroll knew the spread Sunday? The Broncos were 7.5-point favorites and led 24-14 with a minute left, but Las Vegas hurried its way to a 44-yard drive and a 46-yard field goal as time expired to provide the final score. Other than that, all went well as the Broncos won their 10th straight.
Up next: vs. Packers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
5. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)
Last week: 5
Sunday: Beat Bears 28-21
Worst-case scenario: Tough Love in the playoffs
Jordan Love was great in a big moment Sunday, throwing for three touchdowns and just one interception and leading a game-winning, fourth-quarter touchdown drive. But his last two playoff games have included five interceptions and two losses. He’s second in the league in EPA per dropback this year (0.23), but Packers fans are going to be nervous until he proves it in the playoffs. If he does, Green Bay can be a Super Bowl contender.
Up next: at Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Jordan Love threw for 234 yards, 3 TDs, and an INT in the Packers’ Week 14 win over the Bears. When blitzed, Love completed 8 of 11 passes for 126 yards and 2 TDs.
Love currently leads the NFL in expected points added per dropback this season (+0.22).
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/Jo8euYlADt
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 8, 2025
6. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
Last week: 7
Sunday: Beat Bengals 39-34
Worst-case scenario: Moving out of this stadium
This is the Bills’ last season in Highmark Stadium. The new stadium will be palatial, but it’s never going to feel like Buffalo’s beautiful bandbox of a building. On Sunday, Bills quarterback Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with at least one rushing touchdown and one passing touchdown in 50 games. He had 235 total yards and three touchdowns in the second half of a snow game straight out of a Disney movie.
Up next: at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Cinematic. pic.twitter.com/mNBn3Sq7pA
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
Last week: 8
Sunday: Bye
Worst-case scenario: Christian McCaffrey wears down
The 49ers running back is on pace to become the first NFL player ever with two seasons of 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 passing yards, but it’s not coming easy. McCaffrey leads the league in touches (322). He’s fifth in receptions (85) and third in rushes (237) despite only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. It’s a grueling way to live, and it could cost him and San Francisco down the stretch.
Up next: vs. Titans, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions had 120 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns in Thursday’s victory over the Cowboys. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
8. Detroit Lions (8-5)
Last week: 10
Thursday: Beat Cowboys 44-30
Worst-case scenario: A road playoff game
Detroit has a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs after beating Dallas, but it’s still staring at a playoff game away from home if it does make it. That could mean a trip to Philadelphia, Chicago, Green Bay or Seattle. For all of Jared Goff’s improvements, he still has a 57.7 career completion percentage outdoors when the temperature is below 50 degrees. In the last two years, he’s 22nd in the league in EPA per dropback in those conditions (0.01) compared to sixth (0.22) indoors.
Up next: at Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
9. Houston Texans (8-5)
Last week: 11
Sunday: Beat Chiefs 20-10
Worst-case scenario: A playoff flameout
Houston has gone 8-2 since an 0-3 start. The Texans lead the league in scoring defense (15.7 ppg allowed) and are fourth in scoring margin (plus-88) in that stretch, and they feel playoff-bound after bullying the Chiefs on Sunday night. Those playoffs probably won’t include Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow. Houston has a shot this year. Hopefully, it doesn’t waste it.
Up next: vs. Cardinals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
10. Chicago Bears (9-4)
Last week: 6
Sunday: Lost to Packers 28-21
Worst-case scenario: A stacked box
The Bears are second in the league in rushing (1,984 yards) and third in EPA per rush (0.05), but second-year quarterback Caleb Williams hasn’t been able to take full advantage of that yet. Chicago is 14th in passing EPA (32.15), and Williams has the worst off-target throw rate in the league (15.3 percent). The Packers played heavy boxes often on Sunday, putting the pressure on Williams to beat them. He finished 19-of-35 for 186 yards and was picked off on his final pass of the game.
Up next: vs. Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
11. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
Last week: 15
Monday: Beat Eagles 22-19 (OT)
Worst-case scenario: The injury curse is real
The Chargers have missed their two best offensive tackles for most of the season, but never more than Monday night. Justin Herbert was sacked seven times and hurried another 11 times and led the Chargers in rushing with 66 yards, some of which he gained while simply running for his life. Still, Los Angeles won for the fifth time in six games.
Up next: at Chiefs, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
12. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)
Last week: 9
Monday: Lost to Chargers 22-19 (OT)
Worst-case scenario: A.J. Brown was right
The mercurial wide receiver has been advocating for a more wide-open offense (and himself) all year long. The last month has suggested he was right. The Eagles act like they’re getting extra points for degree of difficulty on offense, and Jalen Hurts isn’t making things much easier. He turned the ball over twice on one play Monday night and finished with four interceptions (one of which bounced out of Brown’s hands) and a 31.2 passer rating. Philly has lost three in a row.
Up next: vs. Raiders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)
Last week: 14
Sunday: Beat Colts 36-19
Worst-case scenario: Liam Coen is going to hurt someone
The Jaguars’ first-year coach is in a neck-and-neck race with the Bears’ Ben Johnson for the most performative postgame locker room speeches. After Jacksonville won for the fifth time in six games Sunday, Coen looked on the verge of breaking his players’ hands high-fiving. He has the players believing, though. Josh Hines-Allen was even talking about the Super Bowl after recording his seventh sack.
Up next: vs. Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
checking in on the @Jaguars locker room 🔥
(via @NFLonCBS)pic.twitter.com/q8vCitNu8A
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
Last week: 13
Sunday: Lost to Saints 24-20
Worst-case scenario: Baker Mayfield turning into a pumpkin
Mayfield was a legitimate MVP candidate for the first six weeks of the season, but he completed just 14 of 30 passes for 122 yards and posted a 55.1 rating against the Saints on Sunday. Since Week 7, he is 37th in the league in EPA per dropback (minus-0.18) and has the fourth-worst off-target rate (14.4 percent).
Up next: vs. Falcons, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
15. Carolina Panthers (7-6)
Last week: 18
Sunday: Bye
Worst-case scenario: Letting this chance slip away
Carolina has a 31 percent chance of making the postseason, which is better than anyone would have expected at this point of the season. The problem is the Panthers have the 13th-hardest remaining schedule, with the Seahawks and two games against the Buccaneers still looming. Tampa, in particular, has been a problem. Carolina has won just one of its last 10 against the Bucs.
Up next: at Saints, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
16. Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
Last week: 12
Sunday: Lost to Jaguars 36-19
Worst-case scenario: The Sauce Gardner trade goes down in history
The Colts took a big swing when they sent two first-round picks and wide receiver AD Mitchell to the Jets for the Pro Bowl cornerback in Week 10. They were 7-2 at the time. Since then, DeForest Buckner has gone on IR, Gardner has suffered a calf injury and now Daniel Jones is out for the season with an Achilles injury. The Colts have lost four of their last five and now have just a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to our Playoff Simulator.
Up next: at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Receiver DK Metcalf had seven receptions for 148 yards as the Steelers took over first place in the AFC North. (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
Last week: 20
Sunday: Beat Ravens 27-22
Worst-case scenario: Losing 100-0 to Josh Allen in the playoffs
At the moment, Pittsburgh is set to host Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs. Las Vegas oddsmakers are likely to set that line at the Bills minus roughly a billion. The Steelers have finished between 10-7 and 8-8 for seven straight seasons, and they’re barreling toward the same mediocrity this year after being outgained by the Ravens by more than 100 yards and losing the turnover battle — yet still somehow winning the game.
Up next: vs. Dolphins, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
18. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
Last week: 16
Thursday: Lost to Lions 44-30
Worst-case scenario: The other team having the ball
Only two teams this century have given up more points per drive than the Cowboys’ 2.74 this season. The 2024 Panthers and 2020 Lions each won five games because of it. This Dallas team has won six already because of how good its offense is, but it didn’t matter Thursday. The Cowboys posted 417 yards of offense and 25 first downs — and lost by two touchdowns.
Up next: vs. Vikings, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
19. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Last week: 22
Sunday: Beat Jets 34-10
Worst-case scenario: De’Von Achane getting overlooked
Miami has won four games in a row and five of its last six, so maybe Achane will start getting the credit he deserves. The 24-year-old had seven carries for 92 yards and a catch for 13 yards before leaving Sunday’s game with a rib injury. He is expected to be available this week. He’s third in the league in rushing (1,126) and first in yards per carry (5.8).
Up next: at Steelers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
20. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
Last week: 17
Sunday: Lost to Texans 20-10
Worst-case scenario: It’s over
Not just over for this season (although that, too). The Chiefs’ chances of extending their playoff streak to 11 seasons fell to 16 percent with Sunday night’s loss, and perhaps worse, everyone on the offense looked old. Even the young guys. Rashee Rice dropped multiple passes. Travis Kelce bobbled one away to the Texans. Patrick Mahomes had three interceptions and a 19.8 passer rating. Kansas City has lost four of its last five.
Up next: vs. Chargers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
21. Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
Last week: 19
Sunday: Lost to Steelers 27-22
Worst-case scenario: Mortality is catching up with Lamar Jackson
The Ravens quarterback is 36th in the league in EPA per dropback (minus-0.26) and has the NFL’s worst off-target rate (17.4 percent) since Week 10. He has missed at least one practice for four straight weeks thanks to three different injuries to his knee, ankle and toe. Jackson has played 6,418 snaps since entering the league in 2018, the 10th most among quarterbacks, and he has carried the ball 1,073 times, 227 times more than any other quarterback in that stretch. He looks tired.
Up next: at Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
22. Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
Last week: 24
Sunday: Beat Commanders 31-0
Worst-case scenario: Justin Jefferson goes into A.J. Brown mode
The Vikings had their second-highest offensive output of the season, and Jefferson had just two catches for 11 yards. He hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 5, or a touchdown since Week 9. In his last six games, he is 75th in the league in receiving yards per game (34.7). For now, he’s not complaining, but who knows what the future holds?
Up next: at Cowboys, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
What a stat!
The @Vikings are the first team since 1992 to get shutout and then shutout a team the next week. #SKOL pic.twitter.com/gNRun5xBHo
— Adam Johnson (@Mr_GCU) December 7, 2025
23. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
Last week: 21
Sunday: Lost to Bills 39-34
Worst-case scenario: Signing Tee Higgins was a mistake
Higgins is great. He had six catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns, one of the spectacular variety (though as of Monday, he was headed back into the concussion protocol). Locking him up along with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase makes the Bengals one of the most fun teams in the league. And maybe one of the worst. That $115 million over four years might help a defense that is 31st in points allowed (28.2) and defensive EPA (minus-8.6 per 100 snaps) the last two years.
Up next: vs. Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
24. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Last week: 23
Sunday: Lost to Seahawks 37-9
Worst-case scenario: A housecleaning
Raheem Morris has been the head coach for less than two seasons, but his future (and everything else in Atlanta) is in doubt after the Falcons were outscored 31-3 in the second half by the Seahawks. Five of Atlanta’s nine losses have come by one score or less, but Sunday felt different. The Falcons are now guaranteed an eighth straight losing season.
Up next: at Buccaneers, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Demario Davis of the Saints celebrates a big play in his team’s upset win over the Buccaneers. (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
25. New Orleans Saints (3-10)
Last week: 30
Sunday: Beat Buccaneers 24-20
Worst-case scenario: This is only mid-dip
The Saints upset the Buccaneers on Sunday, but there’s still not a lot to be excited about in New Orleans. Tyler Shough finished 13-of-20 for 144 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.
Up next: vs. Panthers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
26. Washington Commanders (3-10)
Last week: 25
Sunday: Lost to Vikings 31-0
Worst-case scenario: Last season was a mirage
It’s unfair to judge Jayden Daniels on this injury-marred season, but nothing has gone right for the Commanders this fall. Washington has lost eight straight and is last in point margin in that stretch (minus-125). Daniels left Sunday’s game again after aggravating his elbow injury.
Up next: at Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
27. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
Last week: 26
Sunday: Lost to Rams 45-17
Worst-case scenario: Marvin Harrison Jr. is a bust
The No. 4 pick in the 2024 draft missed another game Sunday. He hasn’t had a 100-yard game all season and has only two in his career. He has 40 receptions this year. Meanwhile, 2023 third-rounder Michael Wilson had 36 catches for 445 yards in just the three games Harrison has missed this year due to injury. Wilson had 11 for 142 and two touchdowns Sunday.
Up next: at Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
28. New York Jets (3-10)
Last week: 27
Sunday: Lost to Dolphins 34-10
Worst-case scenario: Picking the wrong quarterback (again)
The Jets will have another top-10 pick this year, but maybe they should stick with Brady Cook. Sure, the rookie UDFA only had a 35.8 passer rating after replacing the injured Tyrod Taylor, but the Jets’ track record for picking new quarterbacks isn’t great. Their last three, including free agency and draft picks, were Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold. They probably should have just stuck with Darnold.
Up next: at Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The New York Jets have failed to reach the NFL postseason for the 15th consecutive season. pic.twitter.com/rvfU1QHLCj
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 7, 2025
29. New York Giants (2-11)
Last week: 29
Sunday: Bye
Worst-case scenario: Hiring the wrong head coach
The vibes in New York are pretty good for such a bad team. There’s excitement about an offense with a healthy Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers, and that defensive line remains menacing. But there’s not a lot of confidence in third-year GM Joe Schoen being part of a long-term fix that includes hiring a new coach, especially in an offseason where there aren’t many obvious candidates.
Up next: vs. Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
30. Tennessee Titans (2-11)
Last week: 32
Sunday: Beat Browns 31-29
Worst-case scenario: The NFL adopts relegation
It hasn’t been that long since the Titans were good, but they have quickly fallen into anonymity. Even with Sunday’s win, Tennessee is 5-25 since the start of the 2024 season. After winning 23 games in 2020 and 2021, the Titans have won 18 over the last four seasons and are again in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick.
Up next: at 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
31. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Last week: 28
Sunday: Lost to Titans 31-29
Worst-case scenario: The NFL’s best rookie class goes unnoticed
Shedeur Sanders was late to the rookie party in Cleveland, not getting his first start until Week 12, but acquitted himself well on Sunday, passing for 364 yards, leading Cleveland in rushing with 29 yards and totaling four touchdowns. Harold Fannin had eight catches for 114 yards. Carson Schwesinger had 12 tackles. Defensive tackle Mason Graham and running back Quinshon Judkins have been good, too. This is another lost season, but maybe the future is bright?
Up next: at Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
Last week: 31
Sunday: Lost to Broncos 24-17
Worst-case scenario: Pete Carroll goes out ugly
The Raiders’ 74-year-old head coach has been a breath of fresh air since returning to the NFL as the Seahawks’ head coach in 2010, but he could be out after this season. Las Vegas beat the Patriots in Week 1 but is minus-143 in scoring margin since then. The Raiders haven’t won a playoff game since 2002.
Up next: at Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
