After months of predictions and speculation, the College Football Playoff bracket has finally been revealed. What are we most excited about? Who got favorable (and unfavorable) draws?
We convened four of The Athletic’s college football writers for some initial thoughts on how the Playoff will play out when it begins on Dec. 19.
Which matchup are you most looking forward to?
Antonio Morales: Texas Tech vs. Oregon in the quarterfinals. These are two teams that are trying to break through a figurative glass ceiling and have invested a lot of money in their programs and rosters to do so — something outside fan bases will surely bring up if Oregon takes care of James Madison and they do match up in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1. Plus, there would be a lot of awesome players on the field, especially in the trenches, if they do play each other.
Grace Raynor: Miami at Texas A&M in Round 1. There are two rematches in the first round with Tulane heading back to Ole Miss and Alabama going to Oklahoma, and we can assume Oregon will take business against JMU. That makes the Hurricanes traveling to College Station the most intriguing matchup between two programs looking to keep climbing in this new era of college football. Both of these teams also beat Notre Dame — which Miami got in over — with the Hurricanes winning by three and the Aggies winning by one. Should be a ton of fun, in a great environment.
Christopher Kamrani: Because Antonio and Grace took the good ones, I’ll be the breaking ball specialist out of the bullpen and throw my best possible curveball: James Madison at Oregon. The college football establishment will remain irate that this Playoff format allowed the Dukes to get in over Notre Dame for a long time. And that’s fine. But I think how JMU handles a first-round cross-country road trip to play at Autzen Stadium will go a long way in terms of how the Group of 5 is viewed in this asinine selection process. If the Dukes show up, it’s better for the sport. If not, I fear for the future of the little bros.
Austin Meek: I can’t wait for the Cotton Bowl. Two weeks ago, Ohio State was in line to be the No. 1 team and Texas A&M was in good shape for a top-four seed. With Texas A&M losing to Texas and the Buckeyes losing to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game, Ohio State could end up with one of the toughest quarterfinal draws, facing the Aggies in front of a pro-A&M crowd at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Of course, that depends on the outcome of the Miami-Texas A&M game, which should be one of the best matchups of the entire bracket. If the Hurricanes win, Ohio State-Miami would be a great callback to the 2002 BCS Championship Game.
Who got the most favorable draw?
Morales: Indiana. Look, all these draws are difficult once you reach a certain point, but Alabama and Oklahoma have looked flawed offensively in recent weeks. Could those defenses spark an upset victory in the quarterfinals and beat Indiana? Sure, but those offenses will have to play a lot better than they have recently against an Indiana team that just held Ohio State to 10 points.
Raynor: I’m with Antonio, it’s Indiana. Georgia should be set up nicely in the quarterfinals against either Ole Miss or Tulane but would theoretically run into Ohio State in the semifinal. There’s a real path for Indiana to beat any combination of Alabama, Oklahoma, Oregon, JMU and Texas Tech to get to the title game. Bonus points for not having to see the Buckeyes again or the Bulldogs until the final day of the season (if at all).
Kamrani: Oregon’s path to the semifinals isn’t as difficult as some might paint it to be. If the Ducks take care of the Dukes in Eugene, they face a Texas Tech team that has a great defense, especially a dynamite defensive line. But the Ducks gave up just 14 sacks in 12 games, and Texas Tech’s offense has not shouldered the load in games against more-talented teams in 2025. The blowout wins over BYU were primarily a byproduct of the defense being so dominant.
Meek: I agree with Chris: I like Oregon’s draw. No disrespect to James Madison, but that’s about as favorable as it gets for a first-round game. Texas Tech is very good, but the Big 12 schedule didn’t test the Red Raiders with many Top 25 matchups. The Ducks are also on the opposite side of the bracket from Ohio State, the team that dismantled them in the Rose Bowl last year.
Who got the least favorable draw?
Morales: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders get the bye, which is valuable, but they’ll likely play a 12-1 Oregon team in the quarters, and if they win that one they could face No. 1 Indiana in the semis. Texas Tech has the pass rushers and defense to hang with anyone, though, and the Red Raiders would have a big stage to demonstrate that in the Orange Bowl.
Raynor: Ohio State. Having to play either Texas A&M or Miami in the quarters, followed by presumably Georgia in the semis, is a tall task for the Buckeyes. I like the Buckeyes to repeat as national champions, but their path is going to test them.
Kamrani: Rolling with Raynor here on this one, too. If the Buckeyes are going to repeat, they’ll have to take the hard road. They did it last year, but I think last year’s team was more talented and obviously had more experience at quarterback with Will Howard. A Miami or Texas A&M win over Ohio State in the quarterfinals would not be stunning, although I don’t expect that to occur.
Meek: Texas A&M. The Aggies were in the mix for one of the top two seeds before the Texas loss knocked them out of the SEC Championship Game. Falling to the No. 7 seed, behind Ole Miss, cost them a chance to play one of the Group of 5 teams in the opening round. Instead, they have to play a talented Miami team for a chance to play an even more talented Ohio State team in the quarterfinals.
Which team without a bye has the best chance to win the title?
Raynor: Oregon, but it will be crucial for the Ducks to get receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. back from injury. Get the two of them back on the field with senior receiver Malik Benson and Moore’s fellow freshman star, Jeremiah McClellan, and the Ducks will be tough to stop.
Morales: It’s Oregon but for the sake of thought diversity, I’ll go with Miami. Yes, there’s been all this debate surrounding Miami the past few weeks but the reality is this is a really good team along the line of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Beck is experienced and has played in big games, receiver Malachi Toney is a star and the Hurricanes have a top-10 defense. There are strong ingredients there. Now is time for the difficult part: trusting Mario Cristobal to navigate the Playoff field.
Kamrani: If Marcel Reed is healthy after getting hurt early in that Texas loss, I think the Aggies have what it takes to make a run. The Reed health caveat is a big one, obviously, but A&M’s defense also needs to prove it can be effective in the trenches. They’ve had some rough outings this year in giving up lots of points to bad teams in Arkansas, South Carolina and LSU. But A&M has star power on the outside in KC Concepcion and Mario Craver.
Meek: I’ll say Alabama, just to throw out a team nobody’s mentioned yet. I know the Crimson Tide looked bad against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, but hear me out. If running back Jam Miller is healthy enough to play in the CFP, it should help a rushing attack that generated minus-3 rushing yards against the Bulldogs. Oklahoma’s offense isn’t great, and Alabama is talented enough to play with anyone in the field.
Who will be a breakout star of this College Football Playoff?
Morales: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss quarterback. A lot of people will tune in to watch the Rebels in the aftermath of Lane Kiffin’s departure, and it’ll be their first time checking out Chambliss, a true dual-threat who came from way off the radar in Division II to emerge as one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the sport.
Raynor: Malachi Toney, Miami wide receiver. We aren’t talking about the Hurricanes’ freshman enough, but he leads all freshmen with 84 catches and 970 receiving yards. He has already broken Miami’s freshman receiving record, and if the Hurricanes make a run, it’ll be because of his connection with Beck.
Kamrani: Time to show some love for our G5 reps. Even if their time in this CFP is short-lived, James Madison star running back Wayne Knight is awesome. At just 5-foot-7, he has strength and speed. He rushed for 1,263 yards in 13 games, including 212 yards in the Sun Belt title game. As for Tulane, the Green Wave have a seasoned veteran QB in former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff, who rushed for 16 touchdowns this year, tied for most of any quarterback in the country.
Meek: Ohio State running back Bo Jackson. The Buckeyes’ wide receivers get all the attention, which has allowed the freshman Jackson to fly under the radar. He found another gear in November and has become a big part of Ohio State’s offense. If Ohio State wins another title, he could be the TreVeyon Henderson of this year’s run.
Who is your early national title pick?
Morales: Indiana has made me reconsider, but I’m still sticking with Ohio State. The defense is elite and the coaching staff received a major wake-up call offensively against the Hoosiers. I’m just not going to bet against a national championship head coach, a tremendous defense and the gravity Jeremiah Smith possesses.
Raynor: I like the Buckeyes to repeat. They enter with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder after the Indiana loss, know what it takes to perform on this type of stage and have the best wide receiver group in college football.
Kamrani: This roundtable is tremendously biased toward one conference. And it’s not the SEC. While I won’t be astonished to see Ohio State and Indiana meet for a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship game, I will admit that I have Googled Curt Cignetti for lots of things, including to see where he gets his cool haircut. I’m rolling with the Hoosiers to complete a dream perfect undefeated season, even though last year’s No. 1 overall seed that got sent to Pasadena saw its title dreams dashed in the shadow of the San Gabriels.
Meek: Fading Indiana has been a terrible strategy. Every time you think the Hoosiers are about to hit their ceiling, they raise it. The exception was their first-round loss to Notre Dame in last year’s CFP, but this is a significantly better Indiana team led by the likely Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Fernando Mendoza. I’ll take the Hoosiers to win it all.
Check back next week for our final staff predictions, and check out early brackets from Stewart Mandel, Bruce Feldman and Ralph Russo here.
