There were surely at least a few grimaces at Denver Broncos headquarters Monday night when the overtime pass from Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was tipped into the hands of Los Angeles Chargers safety Tony Jefferson for a game-ending interception.
The play resulted in a victory for the Chargers (9-4), keeping them within two games of the Broncos (11-2) in the AFC West standings with four games to play.
Had the Eagles found a way to finish their promising overtime drive in the end zone, the Broncos would have entered Week 15 with a chance to clinch their first division title in a decade with a win against the visiting Green Bay Packers and a loss or tie for the Chargers at the Kansas City Chiefs.
As it is, the Broncos can clinch a second straight playoff appearance with a victory Sunday — Denver would have a 98 percent chance to make the playoffs, even if it lost its last four games, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator — but an opportunity to claim the West will have to wait until at least Week 16.
Not that Denver was wallowing in the fact that it didn’t get a little help from the defending Super Bowl champions, whose quarterback threw four interceptions and committed five turnovers overall. Broncos coach Sean Payton earlier in the day had explained the mindset of his team when it comes to watching the out-of-town scoreboard.
After the Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon for their 10th straight win, the Chiefs followed with a loss to the Houston Texans, dropping them to 6-7. Kansas City was officially eliminated from contention in the AFC West, a division it has won for the previous nine straight seasons. As far as Payton was concerned, Kansas City’s fall from atop the division perch didn’t change the equation for his team.
“The focus gets so inwardly driven to our own team,” Payton said, “that I recognize that a team that’s won the division for however many straight years won’t be able to win it this year, but it’s more important to focus on, ‘All right, how do we finish this next quarter pole of the season, starting with a real good team in Green Bay?’ ”
The Broncos enter Sunday’s matchup with the NFC North-leading Packers (9-3-1) riding a 10-game winning streak that has put them in a prime position to host one or more playoff games at Empower Field at Mile High. Denver has not had a home playoff game since the AFC Championship Game following the 2015 season, but it enters this week with an 85 percent chance of winning the West, according to our simulator.
Those odds would rise to 93 percent with a win against the Packers and drop to 78 percent with a loss. The Chargers’ victory on Monday night increased the odds that the regular-season finale between them and the Broncos in Denver could decide the division. The good news for the Broncos is that even if they were to lose their next three games, there is a 90 percent chance that a win over the Chargers in the finale would still earn Denver the division title.
Payton is still searching for his first victory against the Chargers since Jim Harbaugh became the team’s coach in 2024.
“We have a stretch here with some real good football teams coming in and focusing on what we can do to win the division,” Payton said on Monday. “The Chargers are very much alive in that battle. Furthermore, (it’s about) what we can do to give ourselves the best seed possible.”
This figures to be a massive week in Denver’s pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Broncos currently sit in that slot despite having an identical record as the New England Patriots, who have also won 10 straight games. That’s because Denver’s win in Las Vegas on Sunday ensured it owns the tiebreaker over New England if those two teams finish tied in the standings.
Currently, though, the Patriots have better odds of earning the conference’s first-round bye — 49 percent compared to 40 percent for Denver — because New England has a softer schedule over the final four games.
The results in Week 15, though, could dramatically alter the playoff calculus. A Broncos win against the Packers, coupled with a New England loss at home against the surging Buffalo Bills, would boost Denver’s odds at the No. 1 seed to 67 percent. If those results are flipped, with the Broncos losing and the Patriots winning Sunday, Denver’s odds of capturing the top seed would drop to 17 percent.
Despite winning 10 straight games overall and 11 straight at home dating back to last season, the Broncos were 2.5-point underdogs to the Packers as of Tuesday morning, according to BetMGM. It was a reminder of the challenge that lies ahead as the Broncos face a series of opponents across the next four weeks who have their own playoff stakes on the line.
“If you want to make it to the ‘Big Game,’ you’ve got to win big games,” Broncos defensive end John Franklin-Myers said. “Every week that we get a chance to put our stuff on tape and show what type of team we are is an opportunity that we can’t let pass us. These next three, four games are huge to where we want to go as far as seeding and so forth.
“We can’t take for granted. We’re going to practice and prepare for these teams, and we’re going to play our style of football.”
