Here it is, the final finale pretty much of the box office year with 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash. It is expected to be the king of the world this frame with a worldwide first weekend of $340 million to $380 million, which would be behind the global start of 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water which in like-for-likes did $444M.
At Fire and Ash‘s current global level, that will land it as the year’s second best opening for an MPA title after Disney’s Zootopia 2, which debuted to $560.3M last month, and ahead of the studio’s Lilo & Stitch which bowed to $341M.
The overseas launch estimate for Fire and Ash is in the $250M-$275M range. Avatar: The Way of Water debuted to $310M in like-for-like markets at today’s rates.
Don’t fret: Realize that Way of Water had nine days of runtime before Christmas, while Fire and Ash has five, meaning audiences are bound to wait for the best seats and screens to see this 3-hour and 17-minute sci-fi epic. Also, the lower global opening compared to Way of Water, stems from the 13 years of distance between the original film and the sequel.
Currently, domestic presales for Fire and Ash are pacing 30% behind that of Way of Water, which opened to $134.1M compared with the 2009 original’s $77M. So, don’t be shocked if Fire and Ash opens to $90M+. In addition, there’s more counterprogramming competition, at least in North America, than there was during Way of Water‘s go-round, and all of it is expected to be buoyant among Angel Studios’ animated faith-based film David ($20M-$25M), Lionsgate’s The Housemaid ($20M+) and Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants ($15M-$20M).
As always with any Avatar movie at the end of the year, it’s about the end game, not necessarily the first weekend. Heck, that’s the situation with all these films; it’s all about the crazy 6x-8x year-end multiple. Way of Water arrived in a Christmas marketplace after Spider-Man: No Way Home made box office history a year prior with the second biggest domestic opening of all time at $260M and third highest global at $600.5M. Tracking made the mistake of comping Way of Water to a Marvel movie (which always has the rush-out, FOMO factor), hence forecasts on that second Cameron film were lofty at $180M+ U.S. In the end, the sequel did fantastic with a 5.1x stateside ($688.5M) and a $2.34 billion global take, the third highest-grossing movie of all time.
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In the U.S., Fire and Ash is booked at 3,800 theaters comprised of 430 Imax 3D auditoriums, 1,050 premium large format screens (approx. 80% 3D and including 175 Dolby screens), 380 D-Box/4D motion auditoriums and 120 ScreenX locations. Previews begin at 2 p.m.. Currently, Fire and Ash‘s critical score is at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest in the trilogy next to Avatar (81%) and Avatar: Way of Water (76%).
Fire and Ash begins its overseas rollout today including majors France, Germany, Italy and Korea. On Thursday, Australia, Brazil and Mexico join, among others. Friday brings on China, UK, Japan, Spain, India and more. It total, the threequel will be playing in all international box office markets this weekend save Hong Kong, which is now going on January 8.
There are 17 days of holiday breaks in a lot of international countries, and even more in some, so look for a slow burn on the threequel.
Among the top offshore starts for Fire and Ash this debut session, it’s likely to be a mix of China, Germany, France, Korea, UK, Mexico and India; that is, if history repeats.
In China, where the previous two Avatar movies excelled, Fire and Ash is leading presales through Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Through Sunday, however, they are far lower than Way of Water, currently sitting at about 53.5M RMB ($7.6M). Limited sneaks begin Wednesday in the Cinity format, with PLFs starting sneaks on Thursday. Friday goes all-in.
Cameron is beloved in China, where the first Avatar did over $200M in 2010 — before the market opened up and screens grew at a breakneck pace. Across Avatar’s three local releases its gross rises to $262M. Avatar: The Way of Water then finaled at $247M (again, at historical rates) after being released amid China ceasing its zero-Covid policy in 2022 and concerns from the public about venturing out. Way of Water opened to $56.4M in China, with the multiple along the lines of how these movies go — playing out incredibly well.
As for global promos, Cameron and his stars attended a premiere in Sanya, China in early December with star-studded carpets also being held in Paris, Milan, Madrid, Tokyo, London, Wellington, Mexico City and Los Angeles.
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Don’t deny the success of David — at least this weekend. The Angel Studios movie, booked at 3,100 theaters, has $14M in presales already, journeying toward a $20M-$25M start, ahead of Paramount’s fourth SpongeBob feature. While that figure is fueled by Angel Studios subscriptions and fanship ticket sales, the notion from distribution sources is that SpongeBob will have the last laugh and leg out by the end of the holiday stretch which typically caps off with MLK weekend in mid-January. Previews start at noon Thursday for the Phil Cunningham- and Brent Dawes-directed movie that follows David’s path from humble shepherd to anointed king, down to his clash with Goliath.
(L-R) Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried in ‘The Housemaid‘
Daniel McFadden/Lionsgate
And there could be a big flux of women to multiplexes as Lionsgate’s Paul Feig-directed thriller Housemaid starring Amanda Seyfried, Sydney Sweeney and Brandon Sklenar is bound for a $20M+ opening at 3,000 theaters. Even if the movie comes in under in the teens, there’s hope that this movie based on the first novel in the Freida McFadden trilogy will leg out to bigger numbers, ala Sweeney’s 2023 rom-com Anyone But You, which opened to $6M in the pre-Christmas frame and did a crazy 14.7x multiple for a final $88.3M domestic. Rotten Tomatoes critical score is at 78% fresh off 55 reviews. Pic was made for net mid-$30M.
RELATED: ‘The Housemaid’ Review: Amanda Seyfried And Sydney Sweeney Go For It In Paul Feig’s Psychotic Screen Version Of Trashy Popular Novel
Housemaid follows a wealthy woman (Seyfried), married to a hunky guy (Sklenar) who works in tech, who hires a young woman (Sweeney) living on the fringe as her live-in housemaid. Ya gotta see the movie to find out what happens. Previews start at 2 p.m. Thursday.
SpongeBob is in play at 3,500 theaters, with previews Thursday at 4 p.m. Today in North America, there’s an early-access 3D event at more than 1,000 sites where fans will get to see the film first two days early at 5 p.m. local time presented in 3D and RealD 3D at participating theaters. Ticketholders will also get their hands on a bunch of special bonus content, i.e., limited-edition gifts including a laptop/tablet sticker pack and an exclusive collector’s print, while supplies last.
‘The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants‘
Paramount Animation/Nickelodeon Movies
The last SpongeBob movie, 2020’s SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run, became collateral damage of Covid with a Paramount+ release and a limited theatrical debut in Canada ($4.8M). The first SpongeBob Squarepants Movie was in 2004 and opened to $32M domestic, finaled at $85.4M and grossed $141M worldwide. The second movie, Sponge Out of Water, did much better in 2015, with a franchise opening record of $55.3M, a domestic final of $163M and a global of $325.1M.
