This has been one of the most entertaining college football seasons in recent memory. Neither of the top two teams in the preseason AP Top 25, Texas or Penn State, made the College Football Playoff. Nor did No. 4 Clemson or No. 6 Notre Dame. In fact, just five of the preseason top 17 made the field.
With such an interesting mix in this Playoff field, what do the real experts — the coaches themselves — think?
We polled more than two dozen coaches from the Power 4 and Group of 5 and asked them: Who will win it all? Who is the biggest fraud? Who is the best coach and the biggest sleeper?
Which team will win it all?
• Georgia: 50%
• Ohio State: 42%
• Indiana: 4%
• Oregon: 4%
“I don’t think there’s any team that is just great this year. Or as good as Alabama or Georgia were when they won it, or even as good as Ohio State last year. Georgia’s O-line has matured, so that team has taken a jump. The QB is a winner. Defensively, Georgia can play big and can match up. They’re really good and they’re battle-tested.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Ohio State. Georgia seems flawed. I know Indiana just beat them but I don’t think they can beat them twice. Ohio State was pretty banged up in that game. The wideouts will be healthier. On defense, Ohio State is really sound with great players. Their red zone defense is unbelievable.” — Big Ten offensive assistant coach
“Indiana. They’ve played big in big games. I was really impressed with them winning at Oregon and beating Ohio State the way they did.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Georgia. They look the cleanest. They’ve been getting better as the season’s gone on. They’re gonna stop the run and find your weaknesses. And they’re good at using them against you.” — SEC defensive coordinator
Who do you think is the biggest fraud in the field?
• Ole Miss: 29%
• Texas Tech: 17%
• Alabama: 17%
• JMU: 8%
• Oregon: 4%
• Oklahoma: 4%
• No answer: 21%
“Ole Miss. They’ve had so many distractions with Lane Kiffin leaving, and Oklahoma is probably their only good win this year.” — Group of 5 head coach
“I think Alabama should have, like, five losses this year. They shouldn’t be there.” — SEC defensive coordinator
“Alabama. Maybe I’m old-school, but I don’t believe a three-loss team should have a shot to win a national title. I’ve watched them. They’re not that good this year. I didn’t see enough from them to get this chance.” — Big Ten defensive line coach
“Texas Tech. Their D-line is really phenomenal. They can hold their gaps and they let those linebackers play freely. But their offense has had so many opportunities and they really struggle in the red zone. (QB Behren) Morton is talented, but he’s played a ton and some of his decision-making is pretty poor.” — Big 12 offensive coordinator
“JMU. They have no business in the Playoff. If you put them in the ACC, they wouldn’t even be .500. Defensively, they’re legitimate, but offensively, they are not good.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Oklahoma. The defense is awesome, but I don’t think their offense can piss a drop.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach
Which team is the biggest sleeper in the field?
• Miami: 21%
• Oregon: 17%
• Oklahoma: 17%
• Alabama: 13%
• Ole Miss: 13%
• Texas A&M: 13%
• Texas Tech: 4%
“Oklahoma. I don’t think they have had any movement on their staff or roster. Cohesiveness could play a key role in the Playoff.” — Big Ten defensive backs coach
“Alabama is good enough to beat anybody in the field, but can Ty Simpson get his form back from the middle of the season? They don’t run the ball well, but schematically, they do some things to mitigate their running game.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Ole Miss. With everything going on with Lane (Kiffin) and around their program, I can see why people might be doubting them, but they played Georgia so tight and could’ve beaten them. I feel like they’re gonna rally around Lane not being there. I think they can get into the semifinals.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach
“If Notre Dame was in, I’d have said them, to be honest. I’ll say (Texas) A&M.” — Big Ten running backs coach
“Miami. Their D-line is scary, and those guys can change a game. (WR) Malachi Toney is the most dangerous player in college football. I’m not sure how many people actually watch the ACC, but that kid is special. Notre Dame has a really good secondary and they couldn’t touch him, and he kept getting better and better as the season went on. They’ll use him at QB — and he can throw. They’ll line him up outside, in the slot. No one can cover him. He’s fast and super quick. They do so much stuff with him now.” — ACC offensive analyst
Is there a path for the Group of 5 teams (Tulane and James Madison) to win a game this year?
• No: 88%
• Yes: 12%
“I’d like to see it happen personally, because it keeps the hopes alive of like, 50-plus G5 programs, but they just can’t match up physically.” — Big 12 head coach
“I think Tulane can pull off the big upset. Everybody’s thrown off by that first score (45-10 in late September). I think they have enough talent to be very competitive, but (Tulane QB Jake) Retzlaff has to be on. They don’t have the depth that Ole Miss has.” — Group of 5 head coach
“No way. Tulane’s gonna be beat by 20-plus. JMU may lose by 40. They’re gonna get embarrassed.” — Big Ten running backs coach
“The only shot is if someone’s buses break down.” — ACC offensive analyst
Who do you think will pull off an upset?
• Miami: 58%
• No one: 25%
• Oklahoma: 13%
• Tulane: 4%
“Miami over A&M. The Aggies are really good, but both their coordinators might be distracted, and Miami is really talented.” — Group of 5 tight ends coach
“Oklahoma over Alabama. OU is playing at home. Their defense is really good and they have a pretty nasty pass rush. (QB John) Mateer hasn’t looked good since he got hurt in September, but he should be better with a few weeks off.” — Big Ten defensive line coach
“Miami over A&M. Miami has a lot of talent top to bottom and (QB Carson) Beck has played in a ton of big games.” — Big 12 head coach
Which team would you least like to play?
• Georgia: 46%
• Ohio State: 21%
• Indiana: 17%
• Miami: 8%
• Ole Miss: 4%
“Georgia. They can win in a bunch of different ways. They can beat you 40-something to 30-something or win a 13-7 game. There’s not a lot of those types of teams out there.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Indiana. Their defense is a problem. Their scheme makes you work a lot harder. They’re very multiple. They’re so good with fire zones, simulated pressures, and do a good job of fitting the run. (Defensive coordinator Bryant) Haines does such a great job of breaking his own tendencies. He does some stuff that is NFL-complicated, and (QB Fernando) Mendoza’s post-snap decision-making is exceptional.” — Big Ten running backs coach
“Ole Miss. They have that up-tempo spread. Their offense is a little different. They’re a headache to play against. Their running back (Kewan Lacy) is really good. He can take it the distance, and (Trinidad) Chambliss is a really good college quarterback.” — SEC defensive coordinator
How many teams actually have a legitimate shot at being champions?
• Three teams: 38%
• Four teams: 21%
• Six teams: 13%
• Five teams: 8%
• Seven teams: 8%
• Eight teams: 8%
• 10 teams: 4%
Who do you think is the best coach in the Playoff?
• Kirby Smart: 50%
• Curt Cignetti: 38%
• Dan Lanning: 8%
• Joey McGuire: 4%
“(Kirby) Smart. He’s won multiple national titles. He learned well from (Nick) Saban. It’s how he recruits and the schemes he has. Georgia’s a machine.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Curt Cignetti. It’s really hard to argue against him. He talks so damn much, but give it to him. He’s backed it all up. I’d love to see them win it all.” — Group of 5 head coach
“Both Kirby and Cignetti have their teams ready to play, and they have good game plans every week. That’s really all you can control. Kirby’s amazing. But as for who is doing the most with the least, that’s Cignetti.” — Big Ten running backs coach
“Cignetti. Indiana’s gone to the Playoff in back-to-back years? Are you friggin’ kidding me? I know guys who used to work there. That place was a football graveyard. That place hadn’t been in the top 10 in like 100 years. (Editor’s note: 57 years.)” — ACC offensive coordinator
“Smart. He’s won two national championships. He’s doing a great job of being a head coach and not just being a defensive guy. It feels like he helps their offense out a lot.” — SEC defensive coordinator
“Cignetti. When he was talking his s—, I was like, who is this guy? But he backs it up. And when you watch them on both sides, his team is seriously well-coached. I just think he’s the best coach. And I respect his path too; to leave Alabama (as an assistant) to take a small-school job is so impressive.” — Big Ten defensive line coach
