The Memphis Tigers (8-4) and NC State Wolfpack (7-5) meet Friday in the Gasparilla Bowl. Kickoff at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Memphis vs. NC State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
This is the first-ever meeting between these institutions, regular season or otherwise.
Memphis heads into this game with a 3-game losing streak, and it was 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games, too. In addition to those losses, the Tigers also lost coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas, as he’ll fulfill the same job for the Razorbacks. Assistant coach Reggie Howard will steer the ship as the interim coach Friday. Charles Huff, formerly of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, is set to take the coaching reins after the bowl.
Memphis QB Brendon Lewis completed 69.7% of his passes for 2,567 yards, 15 TDs and 6 INTs, while running for 618 yards and 9 scores. RBs Greg Desrosiers Jr., Frank Peasant and Sutton Smith each ran for 7 TDs, and all are expected to be available. WR Cortez Braham Jr. led the team with 63 receptions, 889 yards and 8 TD catches, which accounted for 50% of the TD grabs by Memphis pass catchers. The Over is 4-1 in the past 5 outings for the Tigers.
On defense for Memphis, LB Sam Brumfield is a beast, posting 106 total tackles, 13 for loss, and he also racked up 4.5 sacks. PK Gianni Spetic hit 15 field goals, including a perfect 4-of-4 on attempts from 50+ yards, and was 48-for-48 on extra points.
NC State saw leading rusher RB Hollywood Smothers enter the transfer portal. He had 939 rushing yards and a total of 7 TDs. There are reports he still could play in this game, however. TE Justin Joly finished with 7 TD receptions, and while he is an NFL prospect, he is expected to play. We’ve seen players make a cameo, then opt out for the rest of the game, and Joly, as well as Smothers, if he does suit up, could be one of those type situations, so beware.
NC State hasn’t won a bowl game since 2017, losing 5 straight appearances, including a loss and a brawl with the East Carolina Pirates in the Military Bowl last season. NC State won the St. Petersburg Bowl in 2014 at Tropicana Field, topping the UCF Knights 34-27. The St. Petersburg Bowl was renamed the Gasparilla Bowl in 2017.
Memphis is appearing in a 12th straight bowl, the longest active streak of non-power programs.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Memphis vs. NC State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Memphis +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | NC State -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Memphis +3.5 (-110) | NC State -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Memphis vs. NC State picks and predictions
Prediction
NC State 36, Memphis 31
If you’re a very conservative bettor, but you like NC STATE (-175), it isn’t priced out of line considering it is laying 3 and a hook. That’s an unfavorable number when betting a favorite.
NC State closed the season on more of a roll than Memphis, including a rout of their rival North Carolina Tar Heels in the season finale. Memphis stumbled to 3 straight losses, and it has an interim coach leading the way. Take the stability of coach Dave Doeren and his staff, with the extra bonus if Smothers makes any kind of an appearance.
Back NC STATE -3.5 (-110), but go lightly here.
Again, the Wolfpack have gotten to plenty of bowl games, but they’ve laid eggs when they’ve gotten there. However, while named the St. Petersburg Bowl in 2014, the Wolfpack has had success in this game before.
OVER 56.5 (-110) is the play in this bowl game, as both teams have the potential for explosive offense, while neither side is great defensively. We could get a track meet at Raymond James Stadium.
The Over was 7-4 in the final 11 games for the Wolfpack, and NC State allowed 41, 53, 36 and 45 points in the previous 4 games off campus.
For Memphis, the Over cashed in 4 of the final 5 games, and it allowed 28, 31, and 38 points in the 3 games during the skid to close the regular season.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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