Bring the heat on Justin Herbert
Last week against the Vikings, the Cowboys’ defense forced just a 22.2% pressure rate on J.J. McCarthy, which led to the second-year quarterback to throw for a career high 250 yards through the air as Minnesota was easily able to move down the field on Dallas’ defense.
This week, the Cowboys face a Chargers offense that has allowed pressure on QB Justin Herbert on 43.9% of his dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. In the last two weeks alone, that number has climbed to 57.3% of his dropbacks, where Herbert has gone 10 of 24 for 192 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.
So, it’s paramount in this game that Dallas finds their pass rush again. They’ve struggled in that department this season, with their 34.4% pressure rate being just above the league average of 34.1%. Since the trade for Quinnen Williams, the Cowboys’ pressure rate has been lower, at 31.1%, the 11th lowest rate in the league.
Wait, what? That can’t be right. Well, let’s dive deeper into that. Since Williams was traded, he leads all defensive tackles with a 20.3% pressure rate. Osa Odighizwua has the 12th highest pressure rate among defensive tackles with 10.1%. So where isn’t Dallas getting pressure?
Along the edges. Dallas’ edge rushers have combined for just a 7.8% pressure rate since the trade deadline, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. On Sunday afternoon, they’ll have a real chance to bump that up with a Chargers offensive line that has allowed Justin Herbert to be sacked 49 times, tied for the most in the NFL this season.
Beat Jim Harbaugh at his own game
When you think about a Jim Harbaugh coached team, you think old school, hard-nosed football. They’re going to be tough at the line of scrimmage, want to establish themselves in the run game, and play with the same physicality on the defensive side of the ball.
Well, in this game, Dallas needs to beat Harbaugh and the Chargers at their own game and be the more physical team. That means stopping the run on defense, and being able to move the ball efficiently on the ground offensively.
The good news for Dallas is since week 11, they’ve been the fourth-best defense against the run in the NFL, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. Their interior trio of Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa has a lot to do with that. In that same time span, the Chargers have been the ninth-worst rushing offense in the NFL, with 497 yards and two touchdowns.
On the other side, right behind Dallas since Week 11 in run defense is the Chargers, who have been fifth-best against the run since the trade deadline. Overall on the year, they’ve been the 10th best unit in the league.
For Javonte Williams to have success, not only will his offensive line need to get push up front, but he’ll need to finish through contact and pick up extra yards. The good thing is he’s done that all year, as Williams is fourth in the league in rushing yards after contact with 897. He averages 3.9 yards per carry after contact.
If the Cowboys can win the trenches and the ground game, they’ll give themselves a massive chance in this game.
“Our guys are better than your guys”
It’s an age old saying, and a pretty simple football strategy. Sure, the X’s and O’s go into it, but sometimes, your best players need to be better than the other team’s best players. That needs to be the case for the Cowboys on Sunday, especially with their wide receivers.
Dallas’ number one passing offense faces the Chargers’ third-best passing defense, two of the league’s best units facing off. Los Angeles’ secondary has 17 total interceptions this season, spread amongst eight different players.
One of the best of their bunch is safety Derwin James, who is only one of three defenders in the NFL that has played at least 90 snaps at the line of scrimmage, linebacker, nickel and safety. All week, Dallas’ coaches and players have talked about the type of player James is, and how daunting he is in the box, with Brian Schottenheimer confusing James for a defensive end earlier in his career.
In this game, the Cowboys will need the ultimate showing of their star wide receivers opening things up for one another. In the last few weeks, more attention towards George Pickens has allowed CeeDee Lamb to prosper. Dallas has showed this year they’re flexible and can work either way, and if you take them both away, Ryan Flournoy has stepped up in big moments.
In a battle of two titans, the Cowboys passing game to ultimately land the bigger punch.
