A column chronicling conversations and events on the awards circuit.
At a holiday party Saturday night celebrating the birthdays of Roadside Attractions co-president Erik d’Arbeloff, who turned 60, and his son Lucas, who turned 21, I had a number of conversations with various industry types and Academy voters in the crowd at Smog Shoppe on La Cienega. It is always interesting to see — especially on the cusp of the new rear — just how many have yet to see so many of the Oscar contenders at this late date in the game.
Nomination balloting begins on January 12 at 9 a.m. PT and ends January 16 at 5 p.m. PT. Fortunately, they have the two-week holiday break (some key companies shut down for the entire time) so, if so inclined, Oscar voters who are usually last on the trail have a chance to catch up after slews of critics orgs and even President Barack Obama have weighed in on the field.
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Yes there is a dedicated crowd of AMPAS voters who try to keep up and see what’s out there in a timely fashion, yet unless you are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Frankenstein or Avatar: Fire and Ash, or maybe a handful of other titles, an average audience of AMPAS members and their guests on a decent turnout might be around 200 in the 1000-seat Samuel Goldwyn Theatre, where official Academy screenings are held. On a recent weekend, about 90 turned out for the prime Sunday show of Gus Van Sant’s Dead Man’s Wire, a little more than half that for Lucy Liu’s terrific performance in the indie drama Rosemead the next Saturday — and that was with Q&As with many of the principals involved. Of course the Academy has a digital screening room now — like most voting groups — so it is harder to lure voters out of their homes unless it is very high profile and a “must see” on a large movie screen (the Academy’s is the best in town). Other screening opportunities that come with Q&As receptions and food at places like Ross House, Soho House, The London Hotel and other favored venues draw their fair share, so it is not for lack of opportunity to see these films.
Netflix
In a good move, AMPAS tweaked voting rules last season to assure that those casting ballots have actually seen the films nominated. Again, that is only after nominations for the final ballot in all categories. “You do not need to save movie stubs, tickets or receipts,” the academy wrote in its Octeber 30, 2024 email to its voting members. “This is an honor system.”
So how it works is members who watch on the Academy’s official steaming site will be automatically verified. For films that members watch somewhere else, they must indicate it by marking “watched” next to the film’s name on the service or app. Thus the Academy is able to notify members what films they still need to watch before voting. Of course, who is to say some don’t just begin a movie on the service and leave the room? I don’t believe that happened widely and this is a good step forward, but it is only after nominations, not deciding what gets nominated, a much wider swatch of films that can be daunting for any diligent member.
Increasingly though, it feels like the Academy, and to be fair many other groups including critics, zero in on a handful of movies and vote down the ballot, even with requirements to see everything. The triumph of Anora seemed like that kind of case, an indie movie more widely seen than you might imagine in the Academy (and that might have been due to the new requirements for viewing every nominee) and getting checked off on the ballot in just about every category it was in. It’s a distinct advantage for those movies that can break through at the last minute and not be on members’ “Oh yeah, I have to see that one” or “I should see that, just haven’t had time yet.” lists. So hopefully in the next two and a half weeks voters will find the time to see more films pre-nomination balloting, though I am getting the feeling this might be one of those years where the ultimate winners seem more predictable, at least in conversations I have been having.
Leonardo DiCaprio in ‘One Battle After Another’
Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
“So is it already a done deal, we know what’s winning?” one veteran producer and Oscar voter asked me as I stood at the bar at the Roadside party. And yes, I immediately knew he was talking about One Battle After Another, the Warner Bros title that is not also a description of its current status as a studio for sale. I moderated the official AMPAS screening back in September to what is quite unusual: a turn-away crowd at the Goldwyn and a massive standing ovation for Paul Thomas Anderson in addition to enthusiastic receptions for its cast members, so its success and popularity in the industry is not surprising. Anderson is overdue and the movie is one that filmmakers love.
I am sure the producer was also referring to the endless drumbeat of early wins on the critics awards circuit for the movie; it won at the Gothams, the National Board of Review, the Los Angeles and New York film critics, and has racked up numerous other Best Picture prizes wherever it seems to go. Usually, critics groups aren’t so aligned with industry sentiment, but that appears to be the trajectory here. With a leading nine Golden Globes nominations and 14 more at Critics Choice, it is in as strong a position as you can possibly be at this point in the game. But being a front-runner this early is treacherous: The aforementioned Anora didn’t establish itself as the one to beat until February, when it won at the delayed Critics Choice ceremony and then back to back the next night at the DGAs and PGAs. Without question the most important voices are yet to be heard from, and won’t be until after the New Year with all the guilds, BAFTA and then finally the Academy. Many a front-runner has been tripped up on the way to Oscar Sunday, so always beware.
‘Sinners’
Warner Bros.
What could stop it in its tracks? Start with another Warner Bros title, Sinners, which is also not a name the WBD board uses to describe the Ellisons. While One Battle has 14 CCA nominations, Sinners leads everyone with 17 and was named in every single category it was eligible for on the Oscar shortlists. Could that film change the momentum game and surprise, especially for a movie released in the unfriendly Oscar month of April? Will Warners find itself split with love for both Anderson and Sinners director Ryan Coogler? These are the questions I am asking. If there is a split, will it be to the benefit of Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix hit Frankenstein? Wouldn’t that be a touch of irony considering all that is going on in town these days. Del Toro is enormously beloved and the movie is a marvel of the kind of craft Oscar has always loved, or at least used to love.
‘Hamnet’
Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features
Then there is Focus Features’ Hamnet, a gut-wrenching wallop from Oscar winner Chloé Zhao (Nomadland). This isn’t just some indie movie — its producers are Amblin, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, okay? They have a lot of power and persuasion in Hollywood, and this film does what overall you want every film to do, to leave you with a shot to the heart and an emotional ending like no other. That counts for a lot, and you could tell right from the first screening in Telluride that it landed. Focus has never won the Best Picture Oscar (either has Netflix), and Universal is likely to be lending its heft to its campaign too, but remember the major studio also has its own Wicked: For Good, hoping it finds its mojo in the Best Picture race this year or be relegated again ultimately to just crafts recognition; its impressive showing on the Oscar shortlists with a co-leading eight mentions is promising in that regard. Yes it is always hard for Part 2s to prevail, but don’t tell that to The Godfather Part II or Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.
Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme‘
A24
And what of A24’s Christmas juggernaut Marty Supreme, which already seems a shoo-in for marketing movie of the year thanks to its star Timothée Chalamet, who also seems in line for the top marketing job at A24 in his spare time. Critically and perhaps box-office-wise (it came in a surprising second to Avatar: Fire and Ash on Christmas Day), it is poised to be a spoiler since it also set records for limited release last weekend. Can the Chalamet Express go all the way to the Dolby station?
Then there is the question of the ever-growing international vote in the Academy, the swing voters who really can make a difference. This year there are some prime contenders with Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, Sirāt and The Secret Agent all coming out of Cannes and gunning next for Oscar. This year can especially be telling in terms of the power of the international vote where purely America-centric movies like One Battle and Sinners may find a tougher audience — or not. Great filmmaking is great filmmaking no matter what part of the world it is showing us.
So, thinking about it, my response to that producer I told you about might be “not so fast.” Stay tuned.
Oscar’s Comeback Of The Month – December
If One Battle After Another has been the presumed leader of the Oscar race since its September debut, Warner Bros took a distinctly different campaign strategy with their other juggernaut Sinners, a film that debuted way back in April, a release date that can be forgotten by the time the actual season rolls around and fall releases and even summer releases in some cases (we’re talking about you, Oppenheimer and Barbie) take precedent in the race for Hollywood’s most prestigious honor.
Basically, Warners held back its relaunch until November, when star Michael B. Jordan was available after wrapping shooting on The Thomas Crown Affair in Europe, and especially this month when it seemed Sinners was everywhere on the FYC circuit, with numerous stars hosting events aimed at regaining the attention of Oscar voters and other groups. It certainly seems to have worked as the film led the aforementioned Oscar shortlists with eight, as well as the aforementioned Critics Choice Awards with a near-record 17 (final voting is now open through January 2 at CCA, and through January 3 for the Golden Globes, while SAG announces nominations January 7), indicating the enthusiastic backing it has in crafts and below-the-line categories, something important within the Academy as it indicates strong across the board support among the overall membership (and not just the marquee acting, writing and directing categories). Sinners could very well lead all comers when Oscar nominations are announced January 22.
Among those hosting Sinners events were Spike Jonze, Christopher Nolan, Lupita Nyong’o, Questlove, Viola Davis, Austin Butler, Kenneth Branagh, Destin Daniel Cretton, Idris Elba, Ben Stiller, Denzel Washington and Barry Jenkins.
Denzel Washington, right, moderates a ‘Sinners’ panel with co-star Delroy Lindo
Warner Bros / Brian Gove
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Viola Davis (above) moderated a SAG-AFTRA Foundation Q&A for Sinners with voters on December 14 at the Meryl Streep Center for the Performing Arts, with Jordan and co-star Wunmi Mosaku plus casting director Francine Maisler.
Austin Butler (below) hosted an AMPAS tastemaker event for Sinners at Soho House co-hosted by WME on December 8. Preceding the screening was a Q&A moderated by director Chris Columbus with director-writer-producer Coogler, Jordan and Maisler. Producer Zinzi Coogler was also in attendance.
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