The Athletic has live coverage of NFL Week 17 action.
The scene at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday figures to be a strange one as the Las Vegas Raiders host the New York Giants.
Whoever loses has a lot more to gain than the winner as the NFL’s only two-win teams take the field in Week 17, with the No. 1 pick standing as a silver lining in an otherwise dark season.
The Raiders and Giants enter the game sharing nearly even odds — about 35 percent for the Raiders and 33 percent, according to The Athletic’s NFL Simulator — to earn the top pick. The Cleveland Browns sit just behind with 23 percent odds, while the New York Jets have about an 8 percent chance.
Let’s run through how each team’s odds will be impacted by the results of Sunday’s games, in order of their projected draft spots according to The Athletic’s simulator.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
Las Vegas will play without its two best players, as tight end Brock Bowers was placed on injured reserve this week with the knee injury that’s bothered him all season, and defensive end Maxx Crosby — against his wishes — was told Friday that he will be shut down for the rest of the season. He was placed on IR Saturday with a knee injury that is expected to require offseason surgery, a league source told The Athletic’s Dianna Russini.
The Raiders desperately need a quarterback of the future, and earning the top pick would allow them to fully control that process ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. For a team that’s made just two postseason appearances since 2003, with no playoff wins in that span, the Raiders haven’t had the No. 1 pick since 2007, when they used it on LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell. (We don’t have to state here how that worked out.) Earning the No. 1 pick this season would serve as a consolation prize for a fan base that has endured more rough seasons than most over the past two decades, with little to show for it.
A win Sunday over the Giants wouldn’t eliminate the Raiders, but their odds would dip to about 5 percent, according to the simulator. They could still end up with the top pick so long as they lose in Week 18 to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Giants beat the Dallas Cowboys and the Browns and Jets each win one of their final two games. In that scenario, the simulator gives the Raiders a better than 99 percent shot at the top pick.
The Browns are at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and close the season on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18. The Jets host the New England Patriots on Sunday and play at the Buffalo Bills in Week 18.
That math becomes a lot easier if the Raiders lose to the Giants. Their odds at the top pick shoot up to about 64 percent, and they would be guaranteed the top pick if they also lose in Week 18 to the Chiefs. If they lose to the Giants and then beat the Chiefs, they would need both the Browns and Jets to win one of their final two games, and they’d need to finish with a worse strength of schedule than the Giants.
Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker for draft order, and the team with the easier schedule gets the higher draft pick. Entering Sunday’s games, Giants opponents have won 4.5 fewer games than Raiders opponents (ties count as a half-win for win percentage purposes), though the simulator has generally favored Las Vegas to win that tiebreaker.
New York Giants (2-13)
The Giants haven’t held the No. 1 pick since 1965 — we’re talking pre-merger here — but are just two losses away from capturing it. What that would mean for a team that drafted quarterback Jaxson Dart in the first round in 2025 is hard to guess right now. Nine of the last 11 top overall picks have been quarterbacks, including the previous three.
For the Giants, the math here is pretty simple. If they lose to the Raiders on Sunday and to the Cowboys in Week 18, the top pick is theirs. Win either of those games, and the Giants’ odds become a lot slimmer. A win over the Raiders would virtually eliminate the Giants (less than 1 percent odds, per the simulator), but a loss in Las Vegas and a win in Week 18 against the Cowboys would leave them with about an 8 percent chance at the top pick, according to the simulator.
At that point, the Giants would need the Browns and Jets to each win one of their final two games, as they wouldn’t win a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over either of them, and they would need the Raiders to either win in Week 18 against the Chiefs. Alternatively, the Giants would need to maintain their strength of schedule advantage over the Raiders and any other potential three-win teams, such as the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans, both of which have a less than 1 percent chance at the top pick.
Wouldn’t a tie between the Giants and Raiders be the final twist in one of the NFL’s most wild and unpredictable seasons? Then, the Giants would again need to maintain their strength of schedule edge over the Raiders to earn the top pick if both teams finished 2-14-1.
With Jaxson Dart on the roster as the potential QB of the future, how would the Giants handle the No. 1 pick if they get it? (Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
The Browns must lose their final two games to the Steelers and Bengals to remain in the mix. Even if the Giants and Raiders were to tie, that means at least one of those teams is finishing with a maximum of 3.5 wins. Any teams that get to four wins are out.
Still, the realistic path is there for the Browns to pick No. 1. It starts with losing their final two games, which alone gets their odds to about 47 percent, according to the simulator. From there, if the Giants and Raiders were to each win one of their final two games, the Browns would earn the top pick.
Effectively, that means the Browns need the loser of Sunday’s Giants-Raiders game to follow that up with a Week 18 win. Considering both teams are playing in rivalry games at home against teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention, it’s not an unrealistic ask. It’s even more possible when you consider active players generally do not care about their team’s draft pick status, and coaches, even ones who may not be around the following year, like to end their season with a win.
New York Jets (3-12)
The Jets are in a similar position as the Browns, though their odds are longer because they lack the tiebreaker edge that the Browns have. Even with losses in their final two games, their shot at the top pick only increases to about 12 percent. For starters, they’ll need the Browns, Raiders and Giants to all win at least one game. That would eliminate the Browns and give the Jets a shot at earning the tiebreaker over the Raiders and/or Giants.
Wins by the Titans and Cardinals would help, and basically every other NFL game would have some impact in terms of strength of schedule.
One final note: The Cardinals do remain mathematically alive for the top pick should they lose their final two games. That requires the Giants and Raiders both winning another game to get to 3-14. The Browns and Jets, both of which have significantly weaker strengths of schedule than the Cardinals, need to get a fourth win so they aren’t factors in the tiebreaker.
From there, it would again all come down to the strength of schedule and results around the league. It’s not likely, especially because the Cardinals still face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18, further bolstering the strength of their own schedule. That’s why the simulator gives them less than a 1 percent chance.
For the Titans, despite also being 3-12, the simulator does not see a path to the No. 1 pick. That’s because it doesn’t see a way in which they can win a tiebreaker against a fellow 3-14 team.
