ITHACA, N.Y. — Apart from the brief warm spell inconveniently timed for just before Christmas, it’s been unusually cold – the coldest December in Ithaca since 2000, per the Northeast Regional Climate Center. Other than a brief warmup Monday morning, there isn’t much hope for breaking that pattern this week, as clouds, snow and cold temps will prevail for the close of 2025 and the opening of 2026. High winds and some icing will be a concern in Tompkins County Monday night, with major icing possible between Ithaca and Albany tonight, and heavy lake effect snow bands northeast of Ithaca through the middle of the week.
Your Weekly Weather
At present, a storm system is located over the Midwest and will be moving NE’ward across Lower Peninsula of Michigan tonight, while its associated warm front and precipitation shield is now approaching Tompkins County. The general expectation is that it will start as rain for most areas, but some brief sleet may occur in colder spots before transitioning to rain. Regional temps are currently in the low and mid 30s, and the incoming warm air will result in a pretty substantial dose of rain across the area, as temperatures gradually rise overnight. Rain will start in earnest around sunset, with a strong south wind, 0.25-0.50″ of rain likely, and temps rising to around 40 by sunrise Monday.
Wraparound cold air will begin to enter the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier as the low jogs eastward across Ontario and Quebec. Monday’s high will likely be in the 8-11 AM time frame, around 50 F, and then falling into the lower 30s by sunset as winds pick up, with gusts of 40 MPH possible by late afternoon as the winds turn from out of the southwest to out of the northwest. Morning rains will taper off to a few showers, and change over to snow showers, with partly to mostly cloudy during the day.
Monday night will see strong northwest winds and periods of light snow. Although
The low strengthens over Atlantic Canada Tuesday, drawing down ample polar air in its counterclockwise flow. Another mostly cloudy and windy day is expected, with lake effect snow north of Ithaca, but only a few light showers locally. Dryden, Groton and other towns to Ithaca’s northeast may see 1-2″. Highs will only be in the mid 20s, with windchills in the teens. Tuesday night will host weaker winds, cloudy skies and flurries, with lows in the low 20s.
New Year’s Eve Wednesday will see more of a wind from the west as the low moves northward, but a shortwave pulse of instability rotating around the strong low will cross Tompkins County Wednesday night. Expect cloudy skies with snow showers (
Thursday, the start of 2026, will be cold and mostly cloudy with nuisance flurries – the low to the north actually retrogrades to the west as the shortwave strengthens, the two system interacting around a common center. Highs will be in the lower 20s. Thursday night will be cold with a few snow showers, cloudy skies and lows around 10.
Friday isn’t much of an improvement as the ample flow of cold air continues from the northwest. It will be mostly cloudy and fairly dry with highs in the mid 20s. Friday night will be dry and mostly cloudy with lows in the mid teens.
Looking ahead into next weekend, a polar high moves from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. A few lake-enhanced showers are possible north of Ithaca, but generally it will be dry, with highs around 30 both Saturday and Sunday, and lows in the mid teens Saturday night, and around 20 Sunday night.
Extended Outlook
Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Looking ahead into the first full week of 2026, there will be some moderation in the weather pattern – the trend is for a cold start, and warmer towards the 10th, resulting in near normal temperatures. The prominent, persistent ridge centered over Texas continues and much of the country will see temperatures above normal – we’ve just been left out in the cold. The large-scale pattern also appears to have abundant Pacific moisture and Gulf moisture pulled across the Lower 48, with wetter than normal conditions expected just about everywhere.
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