Rest starters or pursue No. 2 seed? How Eagles coach Nick Sirianni weighs Week 18 approach

PHILADELPHIA — The Eagles could secure the No. 2 seed with a victory over the Washington Commanders on Sunday in concurrence with a Chicago Bears loss to the Detroit Lions, yet even that potential reward might not be enough of an incentive for Eagles coach Nick Sirianni to play many of his starters in the season finale.

Sirianni suggested Monday that no decision had been made about the team’s approach this weekend, but he acknowledged there are roster decisions to make. With four past postseason appearances and two runs to the Super Bowl, Sirianni has a reservoir of experience to reference. And that history at least offers insight into which way the coach might be leaning.

“If I look back, and how beneficial some of the byes that we’ve had have been, that’s part of the reason why you think through it. It’s a marathon of a season,” Sirianni said when asked why he wouldn’t play the starters if the No. 2 seed is available.

“You give your guys some rest, you get some time to think through some different things, even though you’re preparing for an opponent as you go. Both times that I’ve been here that we’ve been to the Super Bowl, we’ve had that opportunity for a bye, and that’s ’22 and obviously ’24. In ’21, we created ourselves a bye as well. You have the opportunity to do that.

…And ’23, we played a little bit (in Week 18 in) that aspect. You have a bunch of different scenarios, and yes, your seeding’s not locked down yet, but you are thinking, ‘Hey, can I put ourselves in the best position seeding-wise?’ But also, you’re thinking to yourself how important byes are and creating them if you don’t earn the right for the first-round bye. Those are all things you’ve got to think through and go through because I think a lot of guys would say, last year, that that was a big deal of being able to have a bye last year to set us up for what we ultimately did last year.”

In 2022, the Eagles played their starters in Week 18 in order to secure the No. 1 seed and an opening-round bye week. In 2024, with the Eagles entrenched as the No. 2 seed, Sirianni elected to rest key starters in Week 18 even though Saquon Barkley was within reach of the NFL’s single-season rushing record. It was a polarizing decision, but inside the team’s headquarters, it did not seem like a difficult one because the team was prioritizing rest and good health entering the postseason.

In fact, one of the arguments made in the locker room when holding back Barkley was to look at what happened in 2023. The reeling Eagles entered Week 18 against the New York Giants with a chance of winning the NFC East. They needed to beat the Giants and needed the Cowboys to lose to Washington. It was unlikely the Cowboys would lose, but it was enough of an incentive for Sirianni to play his starters at the beginning of the Giants game. The decision backfired. A.J. Brown injured his knee in the first quarter and missed the playoff game the following week. Jalen Hurts injured his finger. Sirianni eventually pulled his starters, and the Eagles lost the game, their top receiver, and did not have the benefit of rest.

When Sirianni spoke about the value of playing the starters in Week 17 in a playoff-like atmosphere against Buffalo, he noted how the Eagles avoided major injuries in the game — and it would not be a leap to think Sirianni is considering the value of entering the postseason with only one starter (Drew Mukuba) on injured reserve.

Of course, each situation is different. This is not about pursuing a personal rushing record, but rather a valuable seed. It’s also a more realistic scenario than in the 2023 season, and a potentially more valuable one. The Eagles have a 38 percent chance of the No. 2 seed, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. The Bears are only 2.5-point favorites over the Lions. Although the Lions have been eliminated, it seems more likely that the eight-win Lions could beat the Bears than the four-win Commanders against Dallas in 2023.

Plus, the benefits of the No. 2 seed are considerable. It would ensure a home game in the divisional round if the Eagles won their opening-round game, and the Eagles have won all five home playoff games under Sirianni. Philadelphia is a menacing place for opponents to visit in the postseason. It also raises the chances of a home game in the conference championship should the Eagles reach that point. That happened last season, when the Eagles were the No. 2 seed and the top-seeded Lions lost their first playoff game.

There’s also the question of opponents in the opening round. If the Eagles secure the No. 2 seed, they would play the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles beat the Packers on the road earlier this season (and in the opening round of the playoffs last year), and the Packers are on a three-game losing streak. Furthermore, they haven’t won a game since edge rusher Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending injury.

If the Eagles are the No. 3 seed, they would host the Rams or the 49ers. Both teams have superior odds to win the Super Bowl, according to BetMGM. The Rams are +550, the 49ers are +850 and the Eagles are +900. The Packers, by comparison, are +2200. That shows the advantage that could come with the No. 2 seed. The Eagles beat the Rams in Week 3 and in the postseason last year. They have not played the 49ers since 2023.

“We will end up doing what we think is the best for the team as we go through our process, and we’re still thinking through that,” Sirianni said Monday. “That’s not a decision I have to make today or even tomorrow. It’s just something that you have to go through the process of making.”

There will be a debate regardless of Sirianni’s decision. If the Eagles rest their starters and miss a chance for the No. 2 seed, Sirianni will be in the crosshairs. If he plays the starters and there’s an injury or the Bears win and the Eagles miss a chance for valuable rest, there will be criticism. Such is life as the head coach of the Eagles.

If Sirianni decides to rest top starters, it does not mean the Eagles are conceding the game. Even if it’s not explicitly stated in public, there could be internal confidence that the Eagles can still beat the Commanders on Sunday. They only need to look to last season, when Sirianni sat most starters against the three-win Giants. The Eagles still won, 20-13, in a game with then-No. 3 quarterback Tanner McKee excelling. McKee would start against the Commanders if Hurts sits. (For what it’s worth, Hurts said Sunday evening that he expects to play in the season finale. He also noted it’s not his decision.)

This is not like the third preseason game when the Eagles have a 90-man roster at their disposal. They would still need to use regular contributors in the game, even if the headliners watch from the sideline. The Commanders are starting third-string quarterback Josh Johnson and have lost 10 of their last 11 games. It’s possible that Sirianni can get his starters rest and still compete for the No. 2 seed.

“I know there’ll be a debate about whatever it is that we do,” Sirianni said, “but that’s why we have to go through our process and do what we feel is best to help our team moving forward.”