What I missed was Sam Bennett being left off in favour of Bo Horvat.
All eight D were the same, there was no massive surprise in goal (unless you consider the inclusion of the steady Darcy Kuemper as one) and, yeah, we got about what we thought we would get with this team.
Which is good! Great, even. Canada’s men’s Olympic hockey roster is loaded.
One question I’d ask Canadians to consider as we head into the tournament: Let’s just say the brass here did a perfect job. And I mean flawless. This is a hypothetical, so let’s say there’s some world where you could run the simulation of the Olympics with a zillion different versions of the Canadian hockey roster, and this was the version that won the most gold medals. This is the best they could do, let’s just say.
Now, how many times do you think that this roster — the hypothetical one — would win gold?
Is it 60 per cent of the time? Fifty per cent? Less?
It sure isn’t 100 per cent, is it?
Hockey is a sport with massive amounts of randomness, and the tournament is single-elimination. My point here is that failure to win gold is not necessarily a failure of the process, and from where I sit, the process here was pretty good. They picked a talented team, a well-rounded group, and there aren’t really any names that don’t make sense.
But because second-guessing our national teams is darn near as popular as playing the games themselves, let’s talk about who Team Canada brought, who was left off and what it all means.
I’m just gonna say it directly: this is wild, this is shocking. From a purely logical, analytical standpoint, Bennett is no must-have lock. He doesn’t put up huge points or dominate elite opponents night in, night out. He’s often a minus player, as he is this season.
But he’s also everything we’ve come to believe Canadian hockey is: a brute, a gamer, clutch. He cares, he competes, he’s unafraid.
He elevated his game in a couple big spots at the 4 Nations (tying the gold medal game in the final 10 minutes to go along with his opening fight against the Americans), and followed that up by winning the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the guy who’s best over the two-month grind that is Stanley Cup Playoffs. He’s won two straight Cups and been to three Cup Finals, to go with that 4 Nations gold.
In this humble writer’s opinion, he should be there. And shocking though it is, I still think Bennett is wearing red and white in Milan. There are 14 forwards picked, and the NHL schedule in January is beyond rammed (with most teams playing 15-16 games in 31 days) because of the Olympic break. You can’t tell me the team will be 100 per cent healthy. If there’s so much as a single injury, it’s hard to imagine they don’t reach out to the Panthers forward.
My thought on the Horvat selection is he provides a few things Team Canada management really likes. First and foremost, he’s on pace for 46 goals, which has a lot of appeal. But more than that, he’s incredibly versatile. He can play centre, he can play wing, he can play on the power play, and he can play PK. You don’t know what you’re going to need as the tournament progresses, and so if you’re planning to fill roster holes as you go along, you like to have a guy who can take many different forms to plug a number of different holes. He’s duct tape.
There’s no doubt he’s seen as the 14th guy right now, and so if he’s getting in, that means they’ve got injuries or real failings somewhere, and Horvat can do it all. His speed and shot make him a threat from any role. I think this could’ve been Seth Jarvis spot were it not for the injury, but the reality is Jarvis is injured, and so Horvat reaps the rewards.
Safety on the back end over offensive skill
I was walking the dog last night thinking about Canada’s decision to take Travis Sanheim and Colton Parayko, while leaving off Matthew Schaefer and Evan Bouchard — and if you want to expand this, taking Thomas Harley and leaving Jakob Chychrun — when I asked myself a few questions to try to make sense of the logic here. Because for a moment, I had the thought “I bet over a full season, you’d win more with those skilled names,” and it led to these self-inquiries, which I now put to you:
Which team would do better over an 82-game regular season, one with Sanheim and Parayko, or one with Schaefer and Bouchard? Like if you were the GM going into an 82-game season starting today, who would you take?
And yes, I’d bet a lot of money the team with the two offensive dynamos wins more games, all other factors the same. Bouchard is an 80-point D-man, and Schaefer is going to be one, a potential Norris threat in just a couple years. Between the breakouts, the little touches that push the play the right way, they just help their teams have the puck. So, yeah, I’d take the skilled D here.
Which team does better in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where you only play good teams with max effort and physicality, Sanheim/Parayko or Schaefer/Bouchard?
I know Bouchard has been playoff clutch, but it gets dicier in this scenario for me. Here’s Team Canada GM Doug Armstrong describing the decision to take Parayko and Sanheim, who are both huge, long, lanky: “Parayko and Sanheim, we call it going through a carwash. They’re all arms and legs. It’s hard to get to the net.”
I love that analogy. You saw that work out in the 4 Nations, where every zone entry against was met by a swarm of long Canadian reach. I guess the difference for me is the battle level and pressure on the D that comes in the playoffs, versus a Tuesday night in Nashville or whatever.
And, finally, you’ve got one game to win against the Americans, win and get gold, lose and you go to jail for life. Parayko/Sanheim, or Schaefer/Bouchard?
I’m sorry, I just cannot go to jail for life after I watch Bouchard make some egregious gaffe and head back to the bench without emoting. I just can’t.
The point of that exercise for me is that it’s real easy to say, “You should always err on the side of skill,” but when push comes to shove — and there will be ample shoving — I like the big carwash of men clearing pucks and traffic from the front of the net, while putting the offence in the hands of Canada’s insanely elite forwards.
To put a final point on it: As good as Logan Thompson has been for a while now, the Canadian weakness in this event appears to be goaltending. And if you believe that to be true, the last thing you want to do is trade chances or give up surprise Grade-A chances in big moments. So, keeping it safer on D makes sense here.
Reputation, previous results save Binnington, Harley
I did that whole exercise above and barely mentioned Chychrun, who easily could’ve been selected as the next man up to play D on Canada’s back-end, mostly because I wanted to focus on the greater idea of leaning toward skill over defending.
But Chychrun has been awesome, and without mincing words, Harley has been … not. He’s had a tough year, while Chychrun has a whopping 15 goals already (Harley has 14 … points).
In terms of offence created this season, here are some of the Canadian defenders we’ve been discussing here, listed with their points:
2. Evan Bouchard, 37
3. Jakob Chychrun, 30
7. Matthew Schaefer, 25
17. Travis Sanheim, 17
28. Thomas Harley, 14
38. Colton Parayko, 11
(Drew Doughty and Devon Toews are closer to 30th as well.)
So, for Harley with 14 points a year removed from recording 50, how did he maintain his roster spot? And it’s here where I agree with the idea that you can’t just base these picks on a run of a few months. This is obviously an excellent player who’s just been a bit below his standard this year, a guy who they’ve seen elevate in big moments. He was unfazed at the 4 Nations — arguably one of their best D, actually — he can skate, defend, move the puck … like Horvat, they just like his versatility.
That’s been the case for a lot of guys who were red-hot this year alone: They had to be so good, because they often had to overcome the great past of players who’d made the team before (Bennett notwithstanding, apparently).
So Jordan Binnington has looked every bit the .870 save percentage goalie his stats say he is, but the brass likes his attitude, which has led to great performances in big moments. Mackenzie Blackwood, Scott Wedgewood or any other goalie you could drag out of a Canadian forest, these guys just don’t have the extended track records of Binnington, or Kuemper, for that matter. (I also think it hurts the Woods that they’re in Colorado, unfair though that may be … when the team is that good, it’s tough to know how much credit to give the goalies.)
In the end, I think the injury to Bedard afforded them the shield of not taking him without making any waves. I don’t think they believe he’s good enough without the puck, or has played in enough big games to warrant inclusion on this team just yet, as unbelievable as he is offensively. And they think he’ll get there on those things, but he’s just not there today. With the injury, they can point to that, while allowing him a couple years before he’s a top-six guy for them at the next World Cup.
Now! Now, let’s just say he comes back from injury and immediately starts filling the net again, and someone like Macklin Celebrini or Mitch Marner goes down, I could definitely see him getting the call. He’d be a winger in an event like this, so those are the guys he’s watching for an opening. It isn’t over yet for Bedard, but the injury definitely pushed his bid for a roster spot to the outside for now.
I compared Anthony Cirelli to a winter jacket on our radio show on Wednesday. You don’t want to bring it with you, ever. You’d rather just pack T-shirts. But if you go outside and the weather is bad, you’re gonna thank god you brought it. There are just times you need it, you need a guy to kill the five-on-three, you need a guy who’s on the right side of the puck when you’re up two in the third and the Tkachuks are running around out there, you need a guy on the five-on-six to get you through to the final buzzer.
There’s no doubt that with the score 2-2 in the second period, he’s not going to be the guy getting the tap to go over the boards and push the team ahead. But there’s gonna be weather over a two-week tournament, and you want to be prepared. Pack the damn bulky coat, and you’ll be glad you’ve got it when the temperature drops and snow starts to fly.
Win or lose, I don’t think you can look at the team they’ve selected and fail to see the thinking, or fault the process in any significant way, even if you disagree at the fringes.
As constructed, they’re slight favourites in Milan, and now it’s just a matter of getting through the gauntlet of January with as many bodies intact as possible.
